The Mobile services in emerging Asia-Pacific: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The EMAP region is home to some of the most dynamic telecoms markets in the world. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms mobile market forecasts for the emerging Asia–Pacific region and for six individual countries. It includes worldwide context and commentary on six key countries: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • A 5-year forecast of 156 mobile KPIs for emerging Asia–Pacific as a whole and for 12 key countries
  • An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences by means of a Cross-country comparison
  • A summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE
Countries modelled individually

  • China
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

DATA COVERAGE
Mobile connections

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

5. Executive summary

 

6. Executive summary

 

7. Worldwide trends

 

8. Worldwide: mobile handset data and next-generation access broadband services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide

 

9. Regional trends

 

10. Mobile: ARPU grew in 2016 due to increased data monetisation, but the decline seen in 2017 will continue over the forecast period 

 

11. Mobile: penetration will continue to increase in most countries, and will only decline in Cambodia and Malaysia due to a fall in multi-SIM ownership

 

12. Mobile: the fall in ARPU in China caused by government guidelines on mobile data pricing will drive the fall in ARPU in the region

 

13. Mobile: increasing subscriber numbers and growing mobile data revenue will ensure that the overall mobile service revenue will continue to grow

 

14. Country-level trends

 

15. China: government initiatives and intervention have driven substantial growth in the market and will continue to shape growth

 

16. Indonesia: the competitive environment in the mobile market will become healthier due to a change in operator strategy

 

17. Malaysia: operator expansion into the fixed market should keep overall mobile revenue stable, despite a saturated and competitive market

 

18. Philippines: the end of the duopoly in the mobile segment will bring more competition to the market

 

19. Thailand: operators will continue to compete on network quality in the mobile market

 

20. Vietnam: operators continue to try to entice customers to migrate to 4G packages

 

21. Forecast methodology and assumptions

 

22. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

 

23. Examples of forecast input drivers

 

24. About the authors and Analysys Mason

 

25. About the authors

 

26. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

 

27. Research from Analysys Mason

 

28. Consulting from Analysys Mason


List Of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, emerging Asia–Pacific and worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 6: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

 

Figure 6b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 7a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023

 

Figure 7b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 8: Mobile ARPU, China (CNY per month), 2013–2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Mobile ARPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 11: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2013–2023
Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2013–2023

 

Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2013–2023
Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2013–2023
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2013–2023
Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2013–2023


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