The Mobile services in emerging Asia-Pacific: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The EMAP region is home to some of the most dynamic telecoms markets in the world. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms mobile market forecasts for the emerging Asia–Pacific region and for six individual countries. It includes worldwide context and commentary on six key countries: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.


  • A 5-year forecast of 156 mobile KPIs for emerging Asia–Pacific as a whole and for 12 key countries
  • An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences by means of a Cross-country comparison
  • A summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

Countries modelled individually

  • China
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

Mobile connections

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

5. Executive summary


6. Executive summary


7. Worldwide trends


8. Worldwide: mobile handset data and next-generation access broadband services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide


9. Regional trends


10. Mobile: ARPU grew in 2016 due to increased data monetisation, but the decline seen in 2017 will continue over the forecast period 


11. Mobile: penetration will continue to increase in most countries, and will only decline in Cambodia and Malaysia due to a fall in multi-SIM ownership


12. Mobile: the fall in ARPU in China caused by government guidelines on mobile data pricing will drive the fall in ARPU in the region


13. Mobile: increasing subscriber numbers and growing mobile data revenue will ensure that the overall mobile service revenue will continue to grow


14. Country-level trends


15. China: government initiatives and intervention have driven substantial growth in the market and will continue to shape growth


16. Indonesia: the competitive environment in the mobile market will become healthier due to a change in operator strategy


17. Malaysia: operator expansion into the fixed market should keep overall mobile revenue stable, despite a saturated and competitive market


18. Philippines: the end of the duopoly in the mobile segment will bring more competition to the market


19. Thailand: operators will continue to compete on network quality in the mobile market


20. Vietnam: operators continue to try to entice customers to migrate to 4G packages


21. Forecast methodology and assumptions


22. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge


23. Examples of forecast input drivers


24. About the authors and Analysys Mason


25. About the authors


26. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned


27. Research from Analysys Mason


28. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, emerging Asia–Pacific and worldwide, 2012–2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023
Figure 6: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023


Figure 6b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 7a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023


Figure 7b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023
Figure 8: Mobile ARPU, China (CNY per month), 2013–2023
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2013–2023
Figure 10: Mobile ARPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand), 2013–2023
Figure 11: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2013–2023
Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2013–2023
Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2013–2023


Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2013–2023
Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2013–2023
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2013–2023
Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2013–2023

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