The Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The emerging Asia–Pacific region is home to some of the most dynamic telecoms markets in the world. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for six individual countries.

Emerging Asia–Pacific will continue to be one of the fastest growing regions in the world in terms of telecoms revenue.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

A 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the EMAP region as a whole and for 13 key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

A summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

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<div>8.Executive summary and recommendations<br /> The telecoms retail revenue for EMAP will increase over the forecast period but the CAGR will fall from 4.9% (2013–2017) to 2.1% (2017–2023)<br /> Retail revenue will continue to grow in every country covered in the EMAP region<br /> Geographical coverage: every country in the region will see substantial development in fixed and mobile network technology<br /> Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets<br /> Key recommendations for telecoms operators<br /> Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison<br /> Market context: the relative strength of the telecoms industry varies between countries as can be seen by the individual shares of GDP<br /> Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries<br /> Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia–Pacific market<br /> Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue (excluding that from pay TV) will reach USD315 million by 2023<br /> Mobile: ARPU grew in 2016 due to increased data monetisation, but the decline seen in 2017 will continue over the forecast period <br /> Mobile: penetration will continue to increase in most countries, and will only decline in Cambodia and Malaysia due to a fall in multi-SIM ownership<br /> Mobile: the fall in ARPU in China caused by government guidelines on mobile data pricing will drive the fall in ARPU in the region<br /> Mobile: increasing subscriber numbers and growing mobile data revenue will ensure that the overall mobile service revenue will continue to grow<br /> Fixed: increasing investment in fixed broadband and the turning off of DSL networks will mean that FTTP/B will make up 88% of all fixed broadband connections in 2023</div>
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<div>24.Fixed: China will continue to lead in terms of fixed broadband penetration, but strong investment in other countries means that the gap is narrowing<br /> Fixed: government regulation and competition have resulted in China having the lowest broadband ASPU in the region<br /> Fixed: government initiatives and increasing competition will increase the affordability and penetration of fixed broadband access<br /> Business services: operators will benefit from increasing other business services revenue<br /> IoT: the total revenue from the IoT value chain will grow to over USD42 billion by 2023<br /> Pay TV: strong growth in IPTV and satellite services will be at the expense of cable<br /> Individual country forecasts<br /> China: the total service revenue growth will be flat, and marginal increases in penetration will cancel out the effects of decreasing ARPU<br /> China: mobile ARPU will decline driven by government guidelines and the&nbsp; already high unlimited plan take-up, despite the increase in data usage<br /> China: government initiatives and intervention have driven substantial growth in the market and will continue to shape growth<br /> China: forecast changes<br /> Indonesia: the number of mobile connections will drop by over 16% in 2018 due to the launch of a new prepaid SIM card registration regulation <br /> Indonesia: FTTP/B will be the most-widespread technology in Indonesia and the number of DSL connections will drop to 0 by 2023<br /> Indonesia: the competitive environment in the mobile market will become healthier and there is room for growth in the number of FBB connections<br /> Indonesia: forecast changes</div>
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<div>39.Malaysia: the number of fixed broadband connections will increase due to network investment and the renewed popularity of BFWA<br /> Malaysia: the average mobile data usage will increase at a CAGR of 46.4% and will be the highest in the EMAP region <br /> Malaysia: operator expansion into the fixed market should keep overall mobile revenue stable, despite a saturated and competitive market<br /> Malaysia: forecast changes<br /> Philippines: the long-awaited market entry of a third MNO and mobile number portability will bring increased competition to the market<br /> Philippines: fixed broadband household penetration is growing, and the 4G share of mobile connections will increase significantly <br /> Philippines: the end of the duopoly in the mobile segment will bring more competition to the market<br /> Philippines: forecast changes<br /> Thailand: fixed and mobile service revenue will reach THB383 billion (USD11.5 billion) in 2021 before starting to decline<br /> Thailand: mobile and fixed broadband ASPU will decline due to competition, despite a general shift to 4G and fibre access<br /> Thailand: operators will continue to compete on network quality in both the fixed and mobile markets<br /> Thailand: forecast changes<br /> Vietnam: the number of FBB connections will grow with a CAGR of 11% from 2017 to 2023, but mobile will still account for most of the overall revenue<br /> Vietnam: the contract share of connections is expected to nearly double due to the launch of 4G in 2016, leading to an increase in mobile ARPU <br /> Vietnam: operators continue to try to entice customers to migrate to 4G packages</div>
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<div>54.Vietnam: forecast changes<br /> Methodology<br /> Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge<br /> Examples of forecast input drivers<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]<br /> About the authors and Analysys Mason<br /> About the authors<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason</div>

 


List Of Figures

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 <p>Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 2: Growth in both the telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017–2023<br /> Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017 and 20231<br /> Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia–Pacific<br /> Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017<br /> Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia–Pacific<br /> Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, emerging Asia–Pacific<br /> Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (GB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2023<br /> Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2023<br /> </p>
 <p>Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, China (CNY per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, China, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR trillion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 40: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (MB per month), 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Indonesia, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Malaysia, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Philippines, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Thailand, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Vietnam (VND trillion), 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Vietnam, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Vietnam, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 77: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Vietnam (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Vietnam (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Vietnam, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores</p>
 <p>Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores</p>
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