The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

Telecoms revenue in Western Europe has stabilised, but growth opportunities remain limited. Network upgrades will be the main driver of fixed revenue growth; mobile-only players must popularise data usage to stay competitive. This report provides an update of our forecast for 20172022, which was published in August 2017.

8.Executive summary

9.Revenue trends in Western Europe are improving in many countries, but growth will be limited

10.Retail revenue growth across Western Europe will be flat; no country will have a retail revenue CAGR above or below 2%

11.Geographical coverage: the Nordic countries have the highest take-up of high-speed fixed and mobile services

12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators

14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

15.Market context: economic recovery is underway in Western Europe, but will depend on the outcome of Brexit

16.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries

17.Key drivers at a glance for each Western European market

18.Market overview: overall revenue will remain stable, with fixed broadband acting as the main source of growth

19.Mobile: cellular data traffic growth will remain strong, but ARPU will continue to decline

20.Mobile: penetration in most markets will stabilise at approximately 120130%

21.Mobile: ARPU correlates with wealth, and it is noticeably higher outside the European Union

22.Mobile: the growth in usage will be driven by technological upgrades and tariffing, but competition will limit operators ability to monetise it


23.Fixed: the increased uptake of NGA will drive strong growth in fixed Internet traffic

24.Fixed: the penetration of fixed broadband will approach saturation in many countries over the next 5 years

25.Fixed: broadband ASPU will remain buoyant in most countries, as infrastructure upgrades lead to higher speeds and higher prices

26.Fixed: unlike in the mobile market there is still scope for growth in the take-up of fixed broadband in Western Europe

27.Business services: traditional telecoms providers will struggle to capture the growth in business service revenue

28.IoT: the IoT sector is an important area of growth in Western Europe, as operators seek alternative revenue streams

29.Pay TV: Western European traditional pay-TV revenue will contract after 2021, but growth will still be strong for OTT video services

30.Individual country forecasts

31.France: total service revenue will recover slightly as retail revenue from mobile handset services returns to growth

32.France: technological upgrades will drive increased usage and help to stabilise the revenue per user

33.France: 2020 will see the launch of 5G mobile services and the full availability of superfast broadband services

34.France: we have slightly increased our revenue forecast since the previous edition

35.Germany: revenue growth will be slow, led by mobile data adoption and NGA fixed broadband pricing premiums


36.Germany: network upgrades will continue, but DSL will remain dominant in the fixed broadband market

37.Germany: there is significant scope for growth in mobile usage and higher-speed broadband, but this will not increase revenue

38.Germany: our revenue forecast has been decreased somewhat, but we still predict growth throughout the forecast period

39.Italy: the slight revenue growth in 2017 is an anomaly in a broader downward trend

40.Italy: strong growth in fixed broadband revenue will be outstripped by the decline in voice revenue

41.Italy: the Italian mobile market is braced for disruption with the imminent launch of Iliad

42.Italy: 2017 was stronger than we anticipated, but the launch of Iliad will put pressure on revenue from 2018 onwards

43.Spain: retail revenue growth is expected to continue until 2019 driven by converged bundle take-up

44.Spain: fixed broadband ASPU will be sustained by the transition from DSL to FTTP/B

45.Spain: content bundling is a key facet of competition in Spains converged market

46.Spain: our total revenue forecast for Spain has been decreased slightly in light of the latest historical data

47.UK: retail revenue growth will start to decline from 2019 as opportunities for service enrichment dwindle


48.UK: DSL will remain dominant in the broadband market

49.UK: investment in FTTP/B is on the horizon, despite the uncertainties caused by Brexit

50.UK: there is very little change in our overall revenue forecast for the UK

51.Methodology

52.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

53.Examples of forecast input drivers

54.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]

55.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

56.About the authors and Analysys Mason

57.About the authors [1]

58.About the authors [2]

59.About Analysys Mason

60.Research from Analysys Mason

61.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures:


Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 20122022
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 20162022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2016 and 2022
Figure 4: Summary of the key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2016
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (20172022), by country, Western Europe
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 20122022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 20122022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 20122022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 20122022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 20122022
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 20122022


Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 20122022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 20122022


Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 20122022
Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 20122022


Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 20122022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 20122022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 20122022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 20122022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 20122022
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 20122022


Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 20122022
Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 20122022


Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 20122022


Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Western Europe, 20122022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 20132022
Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Western Europe, 20132022
Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 20122022
Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million),
20122022


Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 20122022
Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 20122022
Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 20122022
Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 20122022
Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 20122022
Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, France, 20122022
Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 20122022
Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 20122022
Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 20122022


Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 20122022
Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 20122022
Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 20122022
Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 20122022
Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Germany, 20122022
Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 20122022
Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 20122022
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 20122022
Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 20122022
Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 20122022
Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 20122022
Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 20122022
Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Italy, 20122022


Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), 20122022
Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 20122022
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, 20122022
Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 20122022
Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 20122022
Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 20122022
Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 20122022
Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Spain, 20122022
Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), 20122022
Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 20122022
Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 20122022
Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 20122022
Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 20122022
Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU, fixed broadband ASPU and traditional pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 20122022


Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 20122022
Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, UK, 20122022
Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores


Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores





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