The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

Telecoms service revenue (including pay TV) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will increase to EUR60 billion in 2022, driven by mobile handset revenue growth and a better economic outlook in the region. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for 16 individual countries.

 8.Executive summary
 9.The recovery in telecoms revenue will continue during the next few years, driven by handset data revenue growth and fixed network investments
 10.Revenue from mobile handset data in CEE, supported by fixed broadband revenue growth, will offset the continuing decline of voice revenue
 11.Increasing retail revenue in CEE will be driven by a better performance in the mobile sector and NGA roll-outs
 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
 15.Geographical coverage: The share of NGA and 4G connections will increase in most countries in Central and Eastern Europe
 16.Market context: CEE’s improving economy will help to increase telecoms revenue
 17.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data revenue will account for more  than a quarter of total retail telecoms revenue in CEE
 18.Mobile penetration: The level of mobile SIM penetration will remain stable in the CEE region, with the exception of Turkey
 19.Mobile connections: 4G/5G connections will gradually displace 3G/2G, but we do not expect 3G/2G network decommissions before 2022
 20.Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of handsets in CEE will reach 82% by 2022
 21.Mobile broadband: The widespread deployment of LTE infrastructure in CEE will support short-term growth of mobile broadband connections
 
 22.Mobile ARPU: ARPU will stabilise due to declining competitive pressure on prices and the increasing take-up of more-expensive data plans
 23.Data and revenue by generation: 4G technology roll-outs will drive service revenue increases in CEE
 24.Fixed services: NGA network deployment and increasing FBB household coverage will be the focus of fixed telecoms operators
 25.Fixed broadband: Penetration rates will increase across the region, but the pace of progress will vary due to economical and geographical diversity
 26.Key drivers at a glance for each market in Central and Eastern Europe
 27.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
 28.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
 29.Individual country forecasts
 30.Czech Republic: Revenue will start to recover as mobile voice prices have bottomed out
 31.Czech Republic – mobile: Revenue will grow, but the market will still be 18% smaller in 2022 than it was in 2012
 32.Czech Republic– fixed: Competition is driving market decline, but growth will return by 2022
 33.Poland: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will account for 41% of the country’s total telecoms retail revenue in 2022
 34.Poland – mobile: Content services and widespread LTE coverage will help MNOs to increase handset data revenue
 35.Poland– fixed: Fixed network investments and a focus on service take-up will drive NGA broadband access revenue
 
 36.mainly driven by declines in fixed and mobile voice
 37.Russia – mobile: Competition in the country’s mobile market will increase and lead to a decline in handset ARPU
 38.Russia – fixed: Increasing fibre penetration and the introduction of FMC bundles will soften broadband ARPU decline
 39.Turkey: Revenue growth in the fixed and mobile segments will be driven by 4G service take-up and NGA network roll-outs
 40.Turkey – mobile: The race for 4G coverage and a high mobile handset data service demand will drive an increase in ARPU
 41.Turkey – fixed: Household FBB penetration will increase to 70% and almost half of households will have NGA access by 2022
 42.About the authors and Analysys Mason
 43.About the authors
 About Analysys Mason
  

List Of Figures

 Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 2: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2022
 Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2022
 Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
 Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2022
 Figure 6: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2016
 Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2022
 Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016–2022
 Figure 10a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 10b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022 
 Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2016 and 2022
 Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 14a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 14b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, CEE, 2012–2022
 Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 18a: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 18b: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
 Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
 Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
 Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic, 2012–2022
 Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2016–2022
 Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2016–2022
 Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2012–2022
 Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2012–2022
 Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
 Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Czech Republic, 2012–2022
 Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2012–2022
 Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
 Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2011–2022
 Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Poland, 2016–2022
 Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2016–2022
 Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Poland, 2012–2022
 Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2012–2022
 Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland
 Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Poland, 2012–2022
 Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2012–2022
 Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Poland
 Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2012–2022
 Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Russia, 2016–2022
 Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2016–2022
 Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Russia, 2012–2022
 Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2012–2022
 Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia
 Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Russia, 2012–2022
 Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2012–2022
 Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia
 Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Turkey, 2012–2022
 Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Turkey, 2016–2022
 Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey , 2016–2022
 Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Turkey, 2012–2022
 Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2012–2022
 Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
 Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Turkey, 2012–2022
 Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2012–2022
 Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
  

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