Possible Development of the Smartphone and Mobile Processor Markets After Huawei Ban (pre-order)

After the U.S. Foreign Direct Product Rule came into effect, Huawei can no longer obtain chips externally, putting its smartphone business in danger. As a result, Huawei announced the decision to sell its smartphone brand Honor on November 17, 2020. This report looks at Honor’s future development and Huawei’s possible plans for its semiconductor arm Hisilicon and forecasts the outlook for the smartphone and mobile processor markets in 2021 and beyond.
1. Background
2. Smartphone Market Development
2.1 Key Factors Driving Market Share Changes: Pricing Strategies of New Honor Company and Apple
2.1.1 New Honor Company Targets High-end Market Segment with Complete Product Lines
2.1.2 Apple Puts More Effort to Develop Low-priced Smartphones
2.2 If New Honor Company Focuses on Mid-range and Value-line Models to Compete with Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo
2.2.1 Impact on Global Smartphone Industry: Prices of Non-Samsung Android Phones Will Plunge
2.2.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Orders for Components Will Increase but Profits May Decline
2.3 If Honor Company Focuses on High-end Models and Apple Increases Value-line Models
2.3.1 Impact on the Worldwide Smartphone Industry: Apple Will Strike Back and Secure More Share in China
2.3.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Some Suppliers Will Benefit from Order Shifts but Assembly Vendors May be Affected by Apple’s Chinese Supply Chain
2.4 If New Honor Company and Apple Both Focus on High-end Models
2.4.1 Impact on the Global Smartphone Industry: Competition in the Industry Will Remain Intact
2.4.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Suppliers Will Gain Orders from New Honor Company Instead and May Cut into the U.S. Supply Chain
3.Mobile Processor Market Development
3.1 Key Factors Driving Market Share Changes: Relaxation of Huawei Ban and Spin-off of Hisilicon if Huawei Ban Remains
3.1.1 Ban Relaxed: Huawei Will Use Third-party Chips in the Short Term
3.1.2 Ban Remains: Huawei Will Very Likely to Spin off Hisilicon and Affect the Mobile Processor Market Shares
3.2 If Huawei is Still Unable to Acquire Enough Volume of Chips in the Short Term Despite Ban Relaxation
3.2.2 Mobile Processor Manufacturers Will be in a Favorable Position in the Short Term With or Without Ban Relaxation
3.3 If Huawei Spins off its Business to Survive Due to Continued Ban
3.3.1 Solution #1: Hisilicon Becomes an Independent Chip Foundry Supported by the Chinese Government
3.3.2 Solution #2: Hisilicon Becomes a Chinese IT Brand’s Subsidiary
3.3.3 Challenges to Future Development of Hisilicon
4. MIC Perspective
Appendix

List of Companies

AMD
Apple
ASE
AWSC
Broadcom
BYD Company
Career Technology
Chipbond Technology
Compeq
FIH
Flexium Interconnect
Fujitsu
Genius Electronic
GIS
Google
Hisilicon
Huawei
Intel
Inventec
Kinsus Interconnect Technology
KYEC
Largan
MediaTek
New Honor Company
Newmax
Oppo
Pegatron
Qualcomm
Samsung
Sharp
SMIC
Spreadtrum Communications
TSMC
TXC
Vivo
WIN Semiconductors
Wistron
Xiaomi
Zhen Ding Technology
ZTE

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