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The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

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We expect mobile retail revenue to continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa during the next 5 years, to reach USD857 billion in 2022, amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges. This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecasts for the region.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

5.Executive summary

6.Service revenue will grow at a 2.7% CAGR during 2016–2022 to USD45.2 billion amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges

7.Worldwide trends

8.Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, reaching USD857 billion in 2022

9.Regional trends

10.Mobile data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate

11.Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition – but growth will slow down

12.2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for only 11.7% of mobile connections in 2022

13.South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G and smartphone share of handsets by 2022 – at 31.3% and 73.6%, respectively

14.Mobile connectivity has been central to tablet adoption, but substitution from smartphones and Wi-Fi will increase

15.Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most countries in SSA

16.Improved network coverage, affordability of smartphones and price reductions are helping drive usage

17.Country-level trends

18.Ghana: Non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite modest growth in terms of SIMs

19.Kenya: Demand for data and mobile financial services will encourage the continued growth of connections and revenue

20.Nigeria: Strong subscriber growth against the backdrop of weak economic outlook which will impact consumer spend

21.South Africa: The release of LTE spectrum will improve competition while economic difficulties will weaken demand

22.Tanzania: Rising smartphone take-up, 700MHz auction spectrum and mobile money will support revenue growth

23.Uganda: The shift from voice to data usage will be accompanied by revenue growth, despite low adoption of 4G

24.About the author and Analysys Mason

25.About the author

26.About Analysys Mason

27.Research from Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in the Sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 3: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 4: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022

Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016–2022

Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and 2022

Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–

Figure 12: Data traffic (MB) and revenue per gigabyte, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Ghana, 2012–2022

Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Ghana, 2012–2022

Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Ghana

Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kenya, 2012–2022

Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kenya, 2012–2022

Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kenya

Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Nigeria, 2012–2022

Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Nigeria, 2012–2022

Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria

Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Africa

Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tanzania, 2012–2022

Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tanzania, 2012–2022

Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania

Figure 28: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Uganda, 2012–2022

Figure 29: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Uganda, 2012–2022

Figure 30: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Uganda

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