The Mobile services in Latin America: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

Telecoms retail revenue in Latin America will increase by nearly 8% during the forecast period. Mobile handset revenue will be an important driver of total telecoms retail revenue growth. We expect mobile handset revenue to grow at a CAGR of 1.35% between 2018 and 2024. This will be driven by increasing data demand and growing contract-based share of mobile connections.

Increasing data revenue will offset the decline in mobile voice and messaging revenue, leading to an overall increase in mobile services revenue.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a 5-year forecast of 118 mobile KPIs for Latin America and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.


<div>5.Executive summary<br /> Executive summary<br /> Worldwide trends<br /> Worldwide: the demand for data will remain the main driver of mobile service revenue growth during the forecast period<br /> Regional trends<br /> Mobile handset revenue, particularly that from data services, will be one of the major drivers of telecoms retail revenue growth in LATAM in the next 5 years<br /> 4G and 5G will account for a majority of the mobile connections in Latin America by 2024<br /> Mobile ARPU will increase during the forecast period as subscribers continue to move from prepaid to contract services<br /> 5G is expected to be launched between 2021 and 2022 in most of the countries in Latin America, and will rapidly penetrate the mobile market<br /> Country-level trends<br /> Argentina: despite challenging market conditions, the share of 4G and 5G connections will grow significantly during the forecast period<br /> Brazil: the share of 4G and 5G connections will increase during the forecast period; data usage will therefore increase <br /> Chile: the rapid take-up of smartphones and the demand for data will drive total telecoms revenue growth in the country</div>
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<div>18.Colombia: mobile ASPU will remain stable during the forecast period, supported by an increasing share of contract-based mobile connections<br /> Mexico: an increase in the number of 4G and 5G connections is expected to result in rapid acceleration of data usage<br /> Peru: accelerated 4G service take-up, the launch of 5G services, and the growing demand for data will help to maintain relatively stable mobile ASPU<br /> Forecast methodology and assumptions<br /> Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge<br /> Examples of forecast input drivers<br /> About the authors and Analysys Mason<br /> About the authors<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
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<div>List of figures:</div>
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<p><span>Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue, by type, and total service revenue, Latin America, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 2: Mobile service revenue, Latin America and worldwide, 2014–2024</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 10: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 11: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2014–2024</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014–2024</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2014–2024</span></p>
<span>Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), </span><span>2014–2024</span></div>
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<p>Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Chile (CLP per month), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 22: Mobile ARPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 23: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2014–2024</p>

 


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