Mobile capex will not grow as quickly as previously anticipated, but it will reach USD175.7 billion by 2025 (with a CAGR of 4% during 2017–2022).

THE REPORT PROVIDES:

• a detailed breakdown of mobile operator capex to 2025, well into the second wave of 5G deployments
• an in-depth view of how 5G, as well as related developments such as virtualisation and automation, will affect patterns of investment
• an in-depth look at vendor implications and the effect of open-source solutions on the supply chain
• capex forecasts broken down into eight geographic regions plus China, and six categories of spending (RAN, core, IT, infrastructure, transformation and non-network assets).

<div>6.Worldwide trends<br /> Mobile capex will grow at a slower pace than previously forecasted until 2021, but growth will then accelerate as 5G is deployed worldwide<br /> Mobile capex will continue to grow at a slow pace; investments in 5G RAN will only overtake those in 4G in 2023<br /> MNOs in developed regions will gradually deploy 5G in urban areas, but those in developing regions will wait until the technology matures further and costs stabilise <br /> 5G deployments will be the main driver of RAN capex growth in North America and developed Asia–Pacific until 2021<br /> Segments other than RAN, such as physical infrastructure, transport and core, will also be high capex growth areas in the 5G era<br /> 5G roll-outs are not as closely aligned to digital investments as previously expected; 5G capex growth will therefore be slower than anticipated until 2023 <br /> Vendor implications<br /> RAN vendors are well-positioned to benefit from delivering services beyond hardware to MNOs <br /> A new supply chain will depress capex growth if it is fully embraced by MNOs for 5G<br /> Western Europe<br /> MNOs in WE will start spending on 5G from 2019 as major 4G upgrades come to an end; they will continue to invest in R&amp;D activities to ensure regional competitiveness<br /> Central and Eastern Europe<br /> The 4G market in CEE is competitive and subscribers are moving to higher plans as their demands for data services grow
<div>20.Middle East and North Africa<br /> Some MNOs in MENA will launch full 5G services in 2019, while others will need to ensure that their 4G networks are in line with the demands of the customer base<br /> Sub-Saharan Africa<br /> The population in SSA is diverse and young, and MNOs are encouraging data consumption through better networks and device subsidies<br /> Emerging Asia–Pacific<br /> In a prepaid region such as EMAP, MNOs will wait for virtualisation technology to mature and become commercial before migrating to 5G<br /> There is strong interest in 5G investments in China and this is reflected in continued high spending<br /> Developed Asia–Pacific<br /> DVAP has the second highest ARPU in the world after NA, meaning that MNOs can continue to invest high levels of capex in order to deploy new platforms early<br /> North America<br /> MNOs in NA are the pioneers of 5G and will continue to invest in high-capacity networks to meet customer and competition demands<br /> Latin America<br /> MNOs in LATAM will continue to build 4G networks in the near term, but low ARPU and a large number of unconnected people remain challenges<br /> Forecast methodology and assumptions<br /> Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions<br /> Definitions</div>
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<div>36.About the author and Analysys Mason<br /> About the author<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
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<div>List of figures:</div>
<div><span>Figure 1: Current and previous mobile capex forecast, worldwide, 2016–2025<br /> Figure 2: Mobile capex, by network segment, worldwide, </span><span>2017–2025</span><span><br /> Figure 3: RAN capex, split by 5G and other radio technologies, worldwide, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 4: Mobile capex, by region, worldwide, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 5: RAN capex, by region, worldwide, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 6: Mobile capex allocated to 5G, by segment, worldwide, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 7: Share of mobile network capex allocated to virtualised and conventional RAN, core and transport, worldwide, 2021<br /> Figure 8: Share of mobile network capex allocated to virtualised and conventional RAN, core and transport, worldwide, 2021<br /> Figure 9: Percentage of capex used for RAN hardware and other services, worldwide, 2018 and 2025<br /> Figure 10: Macrocell capex for traditional and open RAN and sites, worldwide, 2017 and 2025<br /> Figure 11: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Western Europe, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 12: RAN capex, by technology, Western Europe, </span><span>2017–2025</span><span><br /> Figure 13: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 14: RAN capex, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, </span><span>2017–2025</span><span><br /> Figure 15: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Middle East and North Africa, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 16: RAN capex, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, </span><span>2017–2025</span><span><br /> Figure 17: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2025</span></div>
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<p>Figure 18: RAN capex, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 19: Capex forecast, by equipment category, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 20: RAN capex, by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 21: Capex forecast, by equipment category, China, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 22: RAN capex, by technology, China, 2017-2025<br /> Figure 23: Capex forecast, by equipment category, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 24: RAN capex, by technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 25: Capex forecast, by equipment category, North America, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 26: RAN capex, by technology, North America, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 27: Capex forecast, by equipment category, Latin America, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 28: RAN capex, by technology, Latin America, 2017–2025<br /> Figure 29: Countries covered in this report, by region<br /> Figure 30: Definitions used in this report</p>
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