The Communication services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

This report provides an outlook on the mobile communication services market in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP, including country views for Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. It provides forecasts for voice and messaging services provided by both mobile network operators and over-the-top (OTT) providers.

Executive summary
Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: 72 trillion OTT IP messages were sent in 2018; this is 12 times the number of messages that were sent using SMS
Worldwide: 80% of smartphone users were active on OTT messaging apps in 2018; the penetration of these apps will slow down in the coming years
Worldwide: the OTT communication market is heading towards saturation; Facebooks future revenue growth will come from enhanced user monetisation
Worldwide: smartphones will continue to be the dominant communication devices, but the use of emerging devices will increase
Worldwide: strategic responses from operators vary significantly in different regions
Worldwide: operators are migrating smartphone users to VoLTE services; nearly 3.5 billion VoLTE subscribers are expected by 2023
Worldwide: many operators are rolling out Wi-Fi calling, primarily to improve indoor coverage; the roll-out of Wi-Fi 6 will further increase its adoption and usage
Worldwide: the number of RCS users is growing rapidly as operators worldwide are rolling out the technology on Android devices
Regional trends
Developed Asia–Pacific: Japanese operators are basing their messaging strategies around RCS
Developed Asia–Pacific: operator circuit-switched voice traffic is being substituted by VoLTE and OTT voice services

Country-level trends
Australia: OTT alternatives are going to dominate messaging services; operators will remain central in voice services
Japan: Japan is the first country in the world to provide 100% RCS coverage
South Korea: operators are setting standards for innovation in voice services, despite their lack of success in messaging services
Taiwan: unlimited data tariffs are supporting the growth of OTT voice services
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Forecast outputs and definitions
Forecast methodology and assumptions
 


List Of Figures

Figure 1: Messaging traffic, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2023
Figure 2: Mobile voice traffic, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2023
Figure 3: Messages sent, by message type, worldwide, 2012–2018
Figure 4: Messages sent, by message type, and number of OTT messaging active users worldwide, 2012–2023
Figure 5: OTT messaging users, by device, worldwide, 2012–2023
Figure 6: OTT voice users, by device, worldwide, 2012–2023
Figure 7: Retail revenue for operator mobile voice services, by region, worldwide, 2016–2023
Figure 8: Retail revenue for operator mobile messaging services, by region, worldwide, 2016–2023
Figure 9: Active users of VoLTE services, by region, 2016–2023
Figure 10: Wi-Fi calling traffic and number of service users, worldwide, 2016–2023
Figure 11: Traffic and users for all mobile operator messaging services, worldwide, 2012–2023
Figure 12: Messaging traffic, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2023
Figure 13: Mobile voice traffic, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2023
Figure 14: Messaging traffic by message type, Australia, 2012–2023
Figure 15: Messaging traffic by message type, Japan, 2012–2023
Figure 16: Messaging traffic by message type, South Korea, 2012–2023

Figure 17: Messaging traffic by message type, Taiwan, 2012–2023
Figure 18: Overview of the main forecast outputs
Figure 19: Overview of the forecast methodology used in this report


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