The Mobile services in Sub-Saharan Africa: trends and forecasts 2018-2023

This report analyses the most important trends and drivers that are affecting mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examines the impact that these trends will have during the next 5 years. It includes country views for Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda.

There are strong revenue growth opportunities in some of the telecoms markets in Sub-Saharan Africa; more than 1.0 billion mobile connections and a total service revenue of over USD49 billion are expected in the region by 2023.

Telecoms operators in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly focused on developing and monetising data services as the growth of legacy services starts to slow down and consumers increasingly adopt digital services. This report presents core forecasts for the region, analyses the key trends and assesses their impact during the next 5 years.
  


THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


Geographical coverage

Key performance indicators

Regions modelled

Sub-Saharan Africa


Countries modelled individually

Cameroon
Côte d’Ivoire
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Rwanda
South Africa
Sudan
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia

Connections
Mobile

Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
Prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
Smartphone, non-smartphone


Fixed

Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
Narrowband voice, VoBB
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other


Voice traffic
Fixed and mobile

Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile

Service, retail
Prepaid, contract
Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
Handset voice, messaging, data


Fixed

Service, retail
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other


ARPU
Mobile

SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data

<p>5. Executive summary</p>
<p>6. Executive summary</p>
<p>7. Worldwide trends</p>
<p>8. Worldwide: mobile service revenue will increase during the forecast period, but there will be significant differences in terms of revenue growth across regions</p>
<p>9. Regional trends</p>
<p>10. Mobile: mobile data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be a key contributor to service revenue</p>
<p>11. Mobile: 3G will become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 16.9% of mobile connections in 2023; 5G is expected to launch in 2020</p>
<p>12. Mobile: penetration will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down due to declining multi-SIM levels</p>
<p>13. Mobile: spending on non-voice services will help to slow down the ARPU decline in most countries in SSA; ARPU in Sudan will increase due to inflation</p>
<p>14. Mobile: SIM penetration growth rates will drop to single digits in most markets despite the sustained demand for mobile services</p>
<p>15. Country-level trends</p>
<p>16. Ghana: non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite the modest growth in the number of SIMs</p>
<p>17. Kenya: there are solid revenue growth prospects for mobile money and data services. The adoption of 4G will accelerate over the forecast period</p>
<p>18. Nigeria: there is room for mobile revenue growth despite the crowded market and difficult economic conditions</p>
<p>19. South Africa: there will be sustained growth in the mobile market thanks to a strengthening economy and improved network coverage</p>
<p>20. Tanzania: the mobile market offers growth opportunities despite intense competition. Regulator awarded spectrum suitable for 4G in 1H 2018</p>
<p>21. Uganda: mobile revenue growth will be moderate and handset data revenue will be the main contributor to this growth</p>
<p>22. Forecast methodology and assumptions</p>
<p>23. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge</p>
<p>24. Examples of forecast input drivers</p>
<p>26. About the authors</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
 


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