The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

Telecoms operators in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly focused on developing and monetising data services as the growth of legacy services starts to slow down and consumers increasingly adopt digital services. This report provides an interim update of our 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA as a whole and for 11 key countries.
8.Executive summary

9.Telecoms revenue will grow at a CAGR of 2.7% during 20172022 to USD46.6 billion, amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges

10.The positive growth in telecoms retail revenue will be largely proportional to the economic growth across SSA, except in Ghana and Nigeria

11.Geographical coverage: we model 11 telecoms markets, which will account for 68.4% of SSAs overall telecoms service revenue in 2022

12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

13.Key recommendations for telecoms operators

14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

15.Market context: the 11 countries modelled provided 50.9% of the total population in SSA and 69.6% of its telecoms service revenue in 2017

16.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries

17.Key drivers at a glance for each market in Sub-Saharan Africa

18.Market overview: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to dominate

19.Mobile: 3G will become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 13.7% of mobile connections in 2022

20.Mobile: the number of connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down

21.Mobile: spending on non-voice services will help to slow down the ARPU decline in most countries in SSA

22.Mobile: growth rates for SIM penetration will drop to single digits in most markets despite the sustained demand for mobile services


23.Fixed: wireless access will contribute the largest share of broadband revenue, but fibre will have the highest growth rate

24.Fixed: South Africa is a regional leader in the wired broadband market thanks to its developed infrastructure and level of competition

25.Fixed: increased popularity of wireless services will cause revenue to fall, while the growth of NGA will help to stabilise ASPU over the next 5 years

26.Fixed: fixed services in SSA generally offer poor quality at a high cost, and are not accessible to the majority of the regions population

27.Business services: enterprise revenue is small, but growing more rapidly in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions

28.IoT: cellular M2M revenue growth is substantial, but connectivity revenue remains small

29.Individual country forecasts

30.Ghana: non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite modest growth in the number of SIMs

31.Ghana: reluctance to acquire LTE spectrum will limit its adoption, and fixed broadband will remain unaffordable for most customers

32.Ghana: modest growth in the number of mobile connections but a growing demand for data and financial services will boost revenue

33.Ghana: the forecasts for the number of handset connections and the fixed broadband revenue have been revised

34.Kenya: the mobile market has potential for growth, while cables popularity and fibre deployments will support the fixed market

35.Kenya: the accelerated adoption of 4G will drive traffic growth; cable will maintain its dominance of the fixed broadband market


36.Kenya: there are solid growth prospects for mobile and fixed broadband adoption will benefit from better access

37.Kenya: there is a more optimistic outlook for fibre services thanks to recent deployments and stronger than expected uptake

38.Nigeria: difficult economic conditions will continue to impact the telecoms market in terms of investment and spend

39.Nigeria: increased 4G coverage and improved smartphone affordability will support the demand for data services

40.Nigeria: there is potential room for growth in the number of SIMs despite the crowded market and challenging operating conditions

41.Nigeria: projections for fixed broadband have been revised, taking into consideration new information that has become available

42.South Africa: service revenue will grow at a modest CAGR of 1.3% during 20172022, driven by handset data and fixed broadband

43.South Africa: there will be sustained growth for the mobile market but the fixed market will benefit from investment

44.South Africa: the open access model for LTE will delay the release of spectrum, while investment will help boost broadband coverage

45.South Africa: the forecast for mobile interconnect revenue is now more conservative in anticipation of a regime change

46.Tanzania: service revenue will reach TZS2.97 trillion in 2022, and more than 39.7% of this will be from mobile handset data

47.Tanzania: accelerated adoption of 4G services beyond urban centres will support data traffic and revenue growth


48.Tanzania: the mobile market offers growth opportunities despite competition while the fixed market will benefit from investment

49.Tanzania: mobile voice interconnect revenue will reduce  substantially due to a new aggressive termination rates glide path

50.Uganda: mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will drive service revenue growth to almost UGX3.29 trillion by 2022

51.Uganda: 4G services will be adopted slowly because of their unaffordability, limited coverage and low smartphone penetration

52.Uganda: the growth in the number of mobile subscribers resumed in 2017, but revenue is set to decline as wireless dominates

53.Uganda: there is an optimistic short-term outlook for fixed broadband adoption but a modest projection for postpaid uptake

54.Methodology

55.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

56.Examples of forecast input drivers

57.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]

58.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

59.About the author and Analysys Mason

60.About the author

61.Analysys Masons consulting and research are uniquely positioned

62.Research from Analysys Mason

63.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures:


Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022
Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20162022
Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and
2022
Figure 4: Summary of the key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017
Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (20172022), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 20122022
Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 20122022
Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022
Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 20122022
Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million),
20122022


Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 20122022 


Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022
Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa,
20122022
Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022


Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022


Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022
Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 20122022
Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 20122022
Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022
Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 20122022
Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa,
20122022
Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022


Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022


Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022


Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20122022
Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20132022
Figure 26: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 20122022


Figure 27: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 20122022
Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 20122022
Figure 29: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 20122022
Figure 30: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 20122022
Figure 31: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 20122022
Figure 32: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 33: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 20122022
Figure 34: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 20122022
Figure 35: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 20122022
Figure 36: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million),
20122022


Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 20122022 


Figure 38: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 20122022
Figure 39: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 20122022
Figure 40: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES per month), 20122022
Figure 41: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 42: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 20122022
Figure 43: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 20122022
Figure 44: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 20122022
Figure 45: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 20122022
Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 20122022
Figure 47: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 20122022
Figure 48: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 20122022
Figure 49: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN per month), 20122022
Figure 50: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 51: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (million),
20122022


Figure 52: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 20122022 


Figure 53: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 20122022
Figure 54: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 20122022
Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 20122022


Figure 56: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 20122022
Figure 57: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 20122022
Figure 58: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 20122022
Figure 59: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Africa (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 60: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 20122022
Figure 61: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 20122022
Figure 62: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 20122022
Figure 63: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 20122022
Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 20122022
Figure 65: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand),
20122022


Figure 66: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 20122022


Figure 67: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS per month), 20122022


Figure 68: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 69: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 20122022


Figure 70: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 20122022
Figure 71: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 20122022
Figure 72: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 20122022
Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 20122022
Figure 74: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 20122022
Figure 75: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 20122022
Figure 76: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX per month), 20122022
Figure 77: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (MB per month), 20122022
Figure 78: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 20122022
Figure 79: Total telecoms service revenue current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 20122022
Figure 80a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores


Figure 80b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores


 


 





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