The Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

Mobile service revenue will account for 67% of the total telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024. 5G revenue is expected to account for around 41% of the total mobile service revenue by 2024. Fixed broadband and specialist business service revenue will be crucial for revenue growth in the fixed segment. Both revenue streams will increase at a similar CAGR of 2.6% between 2018 and 2024. Fixed network operators will be looking for opportunities to reduce infrastructure costs, and fibre network roll-outs will continue across the region.

The expansion of LTE and LTE-A networks and increasing mobile data usage will be key drivers of the total telecoms revenue growth.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


<div>8.Executive summary and recommendations<br /> Telecoms service revenue growth will be driven by the demand for data and the monetisation of network investments<br /> The rate of telecoms retail revenue growth mainly depends on LTE network expansions, NGA network investments and fixed broadband service take-up <br /> Geographical coverage: the share of NGA connections will increase to 84%, and the 4G/5G share of mobile connections will exceed 85% in 2024<br /> Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets<br /> Key recommendations for telecoms operators<br /> Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison<br /> Market context: the pace of economic growth may start to fall in CEE<br /> Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries<br /> Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market<br /> Market overview: fixed broadband and mobile handset data services will remain the largest areas for revenue growth <br /> Mobile: the total number of mobile connections will decline by 2024 due to market saturation and migration from multi-SIM prepaid plans to contract services<br /> Mobile: penetration in CEE will plateau, mainly due to market saturation<br /> Mobile: mobile ARPU will increase in CEE, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in data usage<br /> Mobile: the outlook for mobile ARPU and handset revenue is positive thanks to increasing LTE-A coverage and the growing adoption of contract subscriptions</div>
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<div>23.Fixed: over 60% of households in CEE will have an active NGA broadband connection in 2024</div>
<div>24.Fixed: NGA network roll-outs and attractive bundled offers will support broadband household penetration growth across the region<br /> Fixed: increasing broadband household penetration and NGA service take-up will help operators to maintain reasonably stable ASPU levels<br /> Fixed: the increasing coverage of high-speed broadband networks will help operators to maintain broadband revenue growth<br /> Specialist business services: operators’ business services revenue growth will slow down towards the end of the forecast<br /> IoT: the largest share of IoT revenue in CEE will come from the automotive sector<br /> Pay TV: traditional services will account for the majority of pay-TV revenue growth in CEE, but operator OTT revenue will grow rapidly, while that from DTH declines <br /> &nbsp;Individual country forecasts<br /> Czech Republic: the expected entry of a fourth mobile player will cause mobile revenue to decline slightly from 2022 onwards<br /> Czech Republic: fixed-wireless will remain the most popular fixed broadband technology, but the number of fibre subscribers will grow rapidly<br /> Czech Republic: the mobile market is relatively uncompetitive but this is likely to change following the introduction of a new mobile operator<br /> Czech Republic: forecast changes<br /> Poland: fixed broadband revenue will increase, but the total market revenue growth will be limited by strong competition in the mobile segment<br /> Poland: operators’ investments in NGA networks will slow down towards the end of the forecast period</div>
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<div>37.Poland: investments in infrastructure will allow operators to maintain ASPU levels despite the high competitive pressure</div>
<div>38.Poland: forecast changes<br /> Russia: strong revenue growth from mobile connectivity and fixed broadband will help to offset declining revenue from legacy services<br /> Russia: the NGA share of all broadband connections will reach 95% by 2024<br /> Russia: mobile and broadband revenue will grow modestly due to enhancements in service quality and favourable macroeconomic conditions<br /> Russia: forecast changes<br /> Turkey: mobile data usage will be the major driver of revenue growth, followed by broadband services<br /> Turkey: the high mobile ASPU will be maintained due to growth in the take-up of mobile data services<br /> Turkey: increasing fibre household penetration and expanding LTE network coverage will help to maintain the high broadband and mobile ASPU<br /> Turkey: forecast changes<br /> &nbsp;Methodology<br /> Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge<br /> Examples of forecast input drivers<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]<br /> &nbsp;About the authors and Analysys Mason<br /> About the authors</div>
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<div>54.Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
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<div>List of figures:</div>
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<p>Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2018–2024<br /> Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2018 and 2024<br /> Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe<br /> Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2018<br /> Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Central and Eastern Europe<br /> Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Central and Eastern Europe<br /> Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024</p>
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<p>Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Czech Republic (CZK billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Czech Republic, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Czech Republic, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Czech Republic (GB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Czech Republic (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Poland (PLN billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Poland, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Poland (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Poland, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Poland (GB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Poland (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Poland, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Russia (RUB trillion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Russia, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Russia (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Russia, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Russia (GB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Russia (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Russia, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Turkey (TRY billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Turkey, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Turkey (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Turkey, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Turkey (GB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Turkey (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2014–2024</p>
 


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