The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

Telecoms retail revenue in Latin America (LATAM) will increase by nearly 8% between 2019 and 2024. This report provides an analysis of the main telecoms trends in Latin America and explains how they will evolve in the next 5 years.

 

Fixed broadband revenue in Latin America will increase at a CAGR of 5.3% between 2018 and 2024, driven by the rapid adoption of NGA-based and 4G/5G BFWA services.

 

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.



<div>&nbsp;Executive summary and recommendations<br />Mobile handset, fixed broadband and pay-TV revenue will be the main drivers of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America<br />Telecoms retail revenue in Latin America will increase, but at a slower rate than other areas of the regions economy<br />Geographical coverage: NGA and 4G/5G connectivity will increase considerably across the region thanks to strong investment from operators<br />Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets<br />Key recommendations for telecoms operators<br />Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison<br />Market context: growth in the telecoms sector in Latin America will be limited despite continuing economic recovery<br />Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries<br />Key drivers at a glance for each country in Latin America<br />Market overview: fixed broadband, mobile handset and specialist business services will account for the majority of telecoms revenue growth in next 5 years<br />Mobile: 4G and 5G will account for a majority of the mobile connections in Latin America by 2024<br />Mobile: mobile ARPU will increase during the forecast period as subscribers continue to move from prepaid to contract services<br />Mobile: 5G is expected to be launched between 2021 and 2022 in most of the countries in Latin America, and will rapidly penetrate the mobile market<br />Fixed: fixed broadband revenue will increase in Latin America as subscribers switch from DSL to more-expensive cable, fibre and BFWA services</div>
<div>Fixed: the adoption of faster technologies will drive FBB ASPU growth in most countries in Latin America except Peru and Mexico<br />Fixed: retail revenue will grow during the forecast period, driven by expanded fixed broadband coverage and increasing specialist business revenue<br />Specialist business services: services revenue from dedicated connections, as well as revenue from other business services, will increase during the forecast period<br />IoT: revenue from the IoT value chain in LATAM will double between 2018 and 2024, but it will still only account for a small fraction of the telecoms retail revenue<br />Pay TV: the market will continue to be dominated by cable and DTH; operators activities in the OTT market will be limited during the forecast period<br />Individual country forecasts<br />Argentina: telecoms revenue will decline as consumer spending falls and operators investments slow due to the economic crisis in the country<br />Argentina: despite challenging market conditions, the share of 4G, 5G and fibre connections will grow significantly during the forecast period<br />Argentina: the telecoms market is expected to change in the coming years as operators move away from DSL and introduce converged services<br />Argentina: forecast changes<br />Brazil: telecoms retail revenue will increase, supported by a recovering economy<br />Brazil: the share of 4G and 5G connections will increase during the forecast period; data usage will therefore increase<br />Brazil: fibre optic will become the main fixed broadband technology by 2024</div>
<div>Brazil: forecast changes<br />Chile: the rapid take-up of smartphones and the demand for high-speed broadband will drive the total telecoms revenue growth in the region<br />Chile: declining revenue from voice services will hamper revenue growth in the fixed segment<br />Chile: network investments and a stable economic outlook will contribute to the total telecoms service revenue growth<br />Chile: forecast changes<br />Colombia: telecoms retail revenue will increase supported by growth in both the fixed and mobile segments<br />Colombia: cable modem will become the dominant fixed broadband technology by 2024<br />Colombia: fixed broadband revenue will increase, driven by subscribers switching from DSL to more-expensive cable connections<br />Colombia: forecast changes<br />Mexico: revenue will grow within the forecast period, supported by increased revenue from mobile handsets, fixed broadband and business services<br />Mexico: an increase in the number of 4G and 5G connections is expected to result in rapid acceleration of data usage<br />Mexico: fixed broadband revenue will increase, driven by an increasing NGA footprint<br />Mexico: forecast changes<br />Peru: both the fixed and mobile segments will contribute to total service revenue growth in the forecast period</div>
<div>Peru: accelerated 4G service take-up, the launch of 5G services, and the growing demand for data will help to maintain relatively stable mobile ASPU<br />Peru: network investments and strong demand for data will be the main drivers of the total telecoms market revenue growth<br />Peru: forecast changes<br />Methodology<br />Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge<br />Examples of forecast input drivers<br />Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]<br />Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]<br />About the authors and Analysys Mason<br />About the authors<br />Analysys Masons consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br />Research from Analysys Mason<br />Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
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<p>Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue, by type, and total service revenue, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Latin America, 2018–2024<br />Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2018 and 20241<br />Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America<br />Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2018<br />Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America<br />Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Latin America<br />Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2014–2024<br />Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2014–2024<br />Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Latin America, 2014–2024<br />Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2014–2024<br />Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2014–2024<br />Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2014–2024<br />Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2014–2024<br />Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2014–2024<br />Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2014–2024<br />Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2014–2024<br />Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2014–2024<br />Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2014–2024<br />Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2014–2024<br />Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2014–2024<br />Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2014–2024<br />Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2014–2024<br />Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2014–2024<br />Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2014–2024<br />Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2014–2024<br />Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2014–2024<br />Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2014–2024<br />Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2014–2024<br />Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2014–2024<br />Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2014–2024<br />Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2014–2024<br />Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2014–2024<br />Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2014–2024<br />Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2014–2024<br />Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2014–2024<br />Figure 81: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores<br />Figure 82: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores</p>
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