The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

The telecoms market revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will increase at a CAGR of 1.4% between 2018 and 2024, driven by the growing adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services across the region. This report provides a full update of our 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for MENA as a whole and for 12 key countries.
 

Fixed broadband revenue in MENA will increase at a CAGR of 4.6% during the forecast period, driven by the fast adoption of NGA-based services and limited competition in the fixed segment.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the MENA region as a whole and 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.


<div>8.Executive summary and recommendations<br /> Telecoms service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa will reach USD72&nbsp;billion by 2024<br /> Monetising high-speed internet and mobile data access will be crucial to achieve telecoms retail revenue growth in MENA<br /> Geographical coverage: NGA and 4G/5G penetration will be the highest in GCC countries and in Israel<br /> Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets<br /> Key recommendations for telecoms operators<br /> Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison<br /> Market context: the average spend per capita has declined, mainly due to increased competition in the GCC region<br /> Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries<br /> Key drivers at a glance for each country in the Middle East and North Africa<br /> Market overview: the fast adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services will help telecoms operators to maintain service revenue growth<br /> Mobile: mobile services will account for most of the telecoms revenue in the region, driven by the growing demand for data and the fast migration from 3G to 4G<br /> Mobile: population service penetration will remain flat because most of the mature markets have reached saturation point<br /> Mobile: ARPU levels will be highly dependent on GDP per capita, competition levels and the penetration of data services<br /> Mobile: the total mobile revenue will continue to increase due to the demand for data and the introduction of faster networks such as LTE and 5G</div>
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<div>23.Fixed: the increase in household broadband penetration will be boosted by NGA network roll-outs and a growing demand for fixed data connectivity</div>
<div>24.Fixed: broadband penetration will increase in all countries in MENA, but the gap between the most and least penetrated countries will widen<br /> Fixed: increasing competitiveness will lead to a decline in ASPU, but the demand for higher-speed services and bundling will lead to fixed broadband revenue growth<br /> Fixed: broadband penetration will continue to increase across the region and VDSL will become the predominant access technology by 2024<br /> Specialist business services: revenue growth will be fuelled by increased spending on mobile data and a growing demand for high-bandwidth dedicated connections<br /> IoT: the total IoT value chain revenue in MENA will grow to over USD6.7&nbsp;billion by 2024<br /> Pay TV: revenue for traditional pay TV and operator-delivered OTT services will continue to grow in MENA<br /> Individual country forecasts<br /> Egypt: there are strong revenue growth prospects in both the fixed and mobile markets due to growing demand and infrastructure investments<br /> Egypt: VDSL will be the dominant fixed broadband technology in 2024, supported by the growing demand for high-speed connectivity services<br /> Egypt: the increase in fixed broadband revenue will be the main contributor to telecoms revenue growth during the forecast period<br /> Egypt: forecast changes<br /> Kuwait: investments in fixed infrastructure should provide a basis for future growth in fixed broadband take-up and revenue<br /> Kuwait: fibre optics will become the dominant fixed broadband technology in Kuwait by 2024</div>
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<div>37.Kuwait: fixed market revenue growth will be driven by the expanding fibre-optic network footprint and encouraging service take-up<br /> Kuwait: forecast changes<br /> Oman: the total market revenue will increase thanks to the growth of the fixed broadband segment and the slow recovery of the mobile market<br /> Oman: operators will increasingly focus on monetising their NGA investments and driving service take-up as network penetration increases<br /> Oman: a new mobile entrant will increase competition in the mobile market, and the fixed broadband segment will benefit from NGA network roll-outs <br /> Oman: forecast changes<br /> Qatar: the overall revenue outlook remains positive, driven by fixed broadband and mobile handset data revenue growth<br /> Qatar: operators in the country aim to lead in 5G coverage in the region and will focus on the quality of service for data users<br /> Qatar: the demand for high-speed connectivity will drive both fixed broadband and mobile data revenue growth<br /> Qatar: forecast changes<br /> Saudi Arabia: telecoms revenue will grow due to improving economic indicators and the forthcoming launch of 5G services<br /> Saudi Arabia: the growing demand for data, stimulated by the increasing popularity of OTT services, will offset the decline in legacy mobile revenue<br /> Saudi Arabia: mobile service revenue will be boosted by the launch of 5G technology and the adoption of service-based tariffs<br /> Saudi Arabia: forecast changes<br /> UAE: telecoms revenue will increase to AED36.3 billion by 2024, driven mainly by the demand for high-speed broadband connections</div>
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<div>52.UAE: good access to fibre services and the recent launch of 5G will help operators to grow their fixed and mobile revenue in the next 5 years<br /> UAE: fixed broadband and mobile data revenue will drive telecoms revenue growth<br /> UAE: forecast changes<br /> Methodology<br /> Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge<br /> Examples of forecast input drivers<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]<br /> About the authors and Analysys Mason<br /> About the authors<br /> About the authors<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
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<div>List of figures:</div>
<div><span>Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue, by type, and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2018–2024<br /> Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2018 and 2024<br /> Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa<br /> Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2018<br /> Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa<br /> Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019–2024), by country, Middle East and North Africa<br /> Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2014–2024</span></div>
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<p>Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Egypt (EGP billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Egypt (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Egypt, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Egypt (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Egypt, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Egypt (EGP per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Egypt (MB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Egypt (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2014–2024</p>
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<p>Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Oman, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2014–2024</p>
<p>Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (thousand), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2014–2024</p>
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<p>Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2014–2024<br /> Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2014–2024<br /> Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores</p>
<p>Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores</p>

 


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