The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The total retail revenue in North America will grow at a CAGR of 0.9% during the forecast period, driven by revenue growth in the fixed broadband and IoT segments. This report includes a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America.
 


<div>7.Executive summary and recommendations<br /> Total telecoms revenue growth in North America will be limited due to competitive pressure in the US mobile segment<br /> The total telecoms revenue growth will be much higher in Canada than the USA due to a lack of competition in the Canadian mobile market<br /> Geographical coverage: 4G/5G share of connections will reach 100% in both countries before 2023<br /> Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets<br /> Key recommendations for telecoms operators<br /> &nbsp;Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison<br /> Market context: North America’s economy will remain fairly stable during the forecast period<br /> Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries<br /> Key drivers at a glance for each North America market<br /> Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue will grow modestly, mostly due to an increase in fixed broadband revenue<br /> Mobile: 5G handsets will account for 12% of mobile connections by 2023 <br /> Mobile: the growth in mobile penetration will mostly come from Canada, where the mobile market is less competitive than in the USA<br /> Mobile: the competitive market pressure will ease and MNOs will look for new opportunities in the FWA segment <br /> Fixed: fixed retail revenue will reach a peak in 2020–2021 and will then start to decline due to falling voice revenue<br /> Fixed: broadband prices in the region continue to rise due to limited competition<br /> Fixed: there is still potential for fixed broadband penetration growth in North America</div>
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<div>24.Business services: the region’s enterprise business revenue growth will be driven by revenue from non-operators that provide other business services<br /> IoT: the automotive and smart buildings segments will account for more than half of the total IoT revenue in North America<br /> Pay TV: cord-cutting will continue in North America, and traditional pay-TV service revenue will decline<br /> &nbsp;Individual country forecasts<br /> Canada: mobile revenue growth will be driven by limited competition and increasing data usage<br /> Canada: NGA connections will make up over 90% of all fixed broadband connections by 2023<br /> Canada: the three main MNOs will maintain their strong market position and the mobile segment will drive the total market revenue growth<br /> Canada: forecast changes<br /> USA: revenue growth in the fixed broadband and mobile IoT segments will contribute most to the total telecoms revenue increase<br /> USA: the number of FTTP/B connections will increase quickly, but cable modems will remain the key broadband access technology<br /> USA: an increasing mobile user base and fixed broadband service upgrades will lead to a revenue increase during the forecast period<br /> USA: forecast changes<br /> &nbsp;Methodology<br /> Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge<br /> Examples of forecast input drivers<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]</div>
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<div>41.About the authors and Analysys Mason<br /> About the authors<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
 


List Of Figures


 <div>List of figures:</div>
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 <p>Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, North America, 2017–2023<br /> Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2017 and 2023<br /> Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America<br /> Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2017<br /> Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America<br /> Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, North America<br /> Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (GB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts, USA, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 45a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores</p>
 <p>Figure 45b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores</p>
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