The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

The total telecoms revenue n North America will increase from USD474 billion in 2018 to USD477 billion in 2023, driven mostly by an increase in fixed segment revenue in both countries, as well as mobile handset data revenue growth and a rapid increase in revenue in the IoT segment. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides telecoms market forecasts for the region and for the two individual countries.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 201 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America (NA) and for the two countries in the region
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverage

Region modelled
North America (NA)

Countries modelled individually
Canada
USA

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile
Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
Prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
Smartphone,
non-smartphone

Fixed
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
Narrowband voice, VoBB
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic
Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile
Service, retail
Prepaid, contract
Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed
Service, retail
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU
SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data

<div>
<div>7.Executive summary and recommendations</div>
<div>8.Total telecoms revenue growth in North America will be limited due to competitive pressure in the US mobile segment<br /> The USA accounts for around 90% of the regional total retail revenue<br /> Geographical coverage: 4G/5G share of connections will reach 100% in both countries before 2023<br /> Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets<br /> Key recommendations for telecoms operators<br /> Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison</div>
<div>14.Market context: North America’s economy will be stable during the forecast period<br /> Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries<br /> Key drivers at a glance for each North America market<br /> Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue growth will be driven by a fixed broadband revenue increase supported by limited competition in that segment <br /> Mobile: ARPU declines will be driven by mobile competition in the USA<br /> Mobile: service demand will increase penetration, while competition in the USA will put further pressure on ARPU in the region<br /> Mobile: the market competitiveness will continue to increase and MNOs will look for new opportunities in the FWA segment <br /> Fixed: fixed broadband revenue growth and the stable business segment will offset the declines in voice revenue<br /> Fixed: limited competition is leading to the growth of broadband prices in the region<br /> Fixed: there is still potential for fixed broadband penetration growth in North America</div>
<div>
<div>24.Business services: the region’s enterprise business revenue growth will be driven by revenue from non-operators that provide other business services<br /> IoT: the automotive and smart building segments will account for more than half of the total IoT revenue in North America<br /> Pay TV: cord-cutting will continue in North America, and traditional pay-TV service revenue will decline<br /> Individual country forecasts<br /> Canada: mobile revenue growth will be driven by limited competition and increasing data usage<br /> Canada: the mobile user base will be almost entirely 4G/5G by 2023 <br /> Canada: the three main MNOs will maintain their strong market position and the mobile segment will drive the total market revenue growth<br /> Canada: forecast changes<br /> USA: fixed broadband will contribute most to the total telecoms revenue increase, supported by the strong take-up of IoT SIMs<br /> USA: the number of FTTP/B connections will increase quickly, but cable modems will remain the key broadband access technology<br /> USA: an increasing mobile user base and fixed broadband service upgrades will lead to a revenue increase during the forecast period<br /> USA: forecast changes<br /> Methodology<br /> Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge<br /> Examples of forecast input drivers<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]<br /> Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]</div>
<div>
<div>41.About the authors and Analysys Mason<br /> About the authors<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>


List Of Figures

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 <p>Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 2: Growth in both telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, North America, 2017–2023<br /> Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2017 and 2023<br /> Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America<br /> Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2017<br /> Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America<br /> Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018–2023), by country, North America<br /> Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2012–2023<br /> Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2013–2023</p>
 <p>Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (GB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, North America, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and traditional pay-TV ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2013–2023</p>
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