The Mobile services in Central and Eastern Europe: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

This report examines the key trends and drivers, and provides a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 individually modelled countries including the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey.

THIS REPORT PROVIDES:

  • A 5-year forecast of 206 mobile KPIs for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 key countries
  • An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • A summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Turkey
Ukraine

Detailed country commentary
Czech Republic
Poland
Russia
Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
Prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue
Service, retail
Prepaid, contract
Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU
SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data

Voice traffic
Outgoing minutes, MoU

<div>5.Executive summary<br /> Mobile revenue will continue to grow during the next few years, driven mainly by revenue growth from handset data<br /> Worldwide trends<br /> Worldwide: mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, and will reach USD867 billion in 2023<br /> Regional trends<br /> Mobile revenue will continue to increase despite declining traditional services<br /> Mobile: the improved LTE-A coverage and an increasing number of mobile contract subscribers will drive mobile ARPU growth<br /> Mobile: notable mobile penetration growth is only expected in Turkey, as most of the other countries in the region have already reached saturation<br /> Mobile: ARPU will increase in a number of countries in CEE, mainly as a result of increasing migration towards contract and high-value data plans <br /> Mobile: declining price pressure and improved LTE/LTE-A coverage will positively affect mobile ARPU<br /> Country-level trends<br /> Czech Republic: a wave of competition is expected in the mobile market as the regulator seeks to decrease consumer ASPU<br /> Poland: operators’ key focus will be on network and coverage upgrades <br /> Russia: the total mobile telecoms market will increase by 2023 thanks to the strong demand for online content<br /> Turkey: inflation will distort revenue trends but strong operator investments in mobile services will drive underlying revenue growth</div>
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<div>20.Forecast methodology and assumptions<br /> Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge<br /> Examples of forecast input drivers<br /> About the authors and Analysys Mason<br /> About the authors<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
 


List Of Figures

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<p>Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, CEE and worldwide, 2013–2022<br /> Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type,</p>
<p>Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013–2023<br /> Figure 10: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 11: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 12: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023<br /> Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013–2023</p>
<p><span>Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2013–2023</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2013–2023</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2013–2023</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2013–2023</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2013–2023</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2013–2023</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2013–2023</span></p>
<p><span>Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013–2023</span></p>
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