The Fixed services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow, driven mainly by the increasing demand for high-speed Internet connectivity. In this report, we examine key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for Western Europe and for 16 individually modelled countries.

This report examines key trends and drivers, and provides a comprehensive fixed telecoms market forecast for Western Europe and for 16 individually modelled countries including country views for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.


  • A 5-year forecast of 110 fixed KPIs for the Western European region and for 16 key countries
  • An in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of fixed service, and for key countries
  • An overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • A summary of results, key implications and recommendations for fixed operators.


Countries modelled individually

Detailed country commentary

Fixed connections
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
Narrowband voice, VoBB
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed revenue
Service, retail
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed voice traffic
Outgoing minutes, MoU

5.Executive summary
Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Worldwide: fixed revenue in Western Europe will grow at the same rate as the worldwide average during the forecast period
Regional trends
Fixed: increased fixed broadband penetration is the main driver of revenue growth
Fixed: government initiatives will drive further growth in broadband take-up, and next-generation access will account for four fifths of all fixed connections by 2023
Fixed: broadband penetration in most countries is nearing saturation; regional penetration growth will be driven by activity in Italy, Portugal and Spain
Fixed: ASPU is higher in countries outside the EU
Fixed: improvements in fixed broadband coverage and the availability of high-speed fibre services will support continued revenue growth
Country-level trends
France: operators’ investments in fixed roll-outs will make fixed broadband more attractive, leading to growth in the number of connections
Germany: the decline in fixed voice revenue will hinder the total telecoms revenue growth
Italy: new entrant Iliad has further increased competition in the mobile market, and in the fixed market, coverage and take-up of fibre will grow


19.Spain: operators’ focus on rolling out FTTP/B will help to maintain high fixed broadband ASPU levels during the forecast period
UK: the regulator is encouraging operators to roll out “full fibre” FTTP connectivity, and this will lead to a transformation of the broadband market
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Examples of forecast input drivers
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason


List Of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 2: Fixed service revenue by location, Western Europe and worldwide, 2013–2023

Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by fixed service type, and fixed ARPU, Western Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 5: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 6: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2013–2023
Figure 7: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2013–2023
Figure 8: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 9: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2013–2023
Figure 10a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 10b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013–2023
Figure 11a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2013–2023

Figure 11b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2013–2023.

Figure 12: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2013–2023

Figure 13: Fixed voice and broadband ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2013–2023

Figure 14: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2013–2023

Figure 15: Fixed voice and broadband ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2013–2023

Figure 16: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2013–2023

Figure 17: Fixed voice and broadband ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2013–2023

Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2013–2023
Figure 19: Fixed voice and broadband ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2013–2023

Figure 20: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2013–2023

Figure 21: Fixed voice and broadband ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2013–2023


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