The Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Traditional pay-TV access technologies will continue to deliver the majority of consumers’ paid-for televisual entertainment over the next 5 years, but the future of pay TV is OTT. This forecast unites our traditional pay-TV and OTT video forecasts for Western Europe into a single forecast because these services cannot be viewed in isolation.

This forecast unites our traditional and OTT video forecasts for Western Europe into a single forecast because these services cannot be viewed in isolation. Full-price pay-TV services are being launched over unmanaged IP (for example, OTT), and from a consumer point of view, these services are the same, or better, than the services that they received over traditional accesses such as cable and satellite.

THIS REPORT PROVIDES:

  • Forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, premium OTT video users, their retail revenue (spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)
  • Forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and operator OTT; operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by Category of OTT video service – linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), TVoD (ownership) and SVoD
  • Forecasts for 16 individual countries and Western Europe as a whole.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE AND KEY METRICS

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled:
Western Europe
Countries modelled individually
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK

Key performance indicators
pay-TV households and connections
OTT video users
retail revenue (spend)
ASPU

Pay TV is split by the following access technologies:
cable (analogue and digital, CATV)
IPTV
pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)
satellite (DTH)
operator OTT
third-party (non-operator) OTT

OTT video is split as follows:
linear – channels (paid-for and free)
linear – events
TVoD – (rental and ownership)
SVoD (paid-for and free)

<div>5.Executive summary</div>
<div>6.The future of Western European pay TV is OTT video<br /> Traditional pay-TV spend will peak in 2019, but operators and pay-TV providers will gain EUR2.4 billion in incremental revenue from their own OTT services by 2023<br /> The extent to which operators and pay-TV providers embrace OTT delivery will significantly influence future retail revenue growth in each country in Western Europe<br /> Regional trends<br /> Geographical coverage: IPTV is now the dominant access technology in France, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland<br /> OTT services delivered by pay-TV providers will grow the total retail revenue captured by ‘traditional’ players from EUR32.5 billion in 2018 to EUR34.9 billion in 2023<br /> Retail revenue for SVoD services will almost double between 2018 and 2023, but revenue from the delivery of linear services will grow from 18% to 29% of spend<br /> Traditional pay-TV connections will remain stable, but subscription growth will be driven by traditional players’ own OTT service launches<br /> SVoD will continue to be the most-popular retail model for OTT video in Western Europe, but linear service use will grow more rapidly<br /> Country-level trends<br /> France: bundling will stem the decline of traditional access technologies<br /> while providers use OTT delivery to pursue secondary subscriptions<br /> France: Netflix and Amazon drove SVoD growth over 2017 and 2018, but<br /> future revenue growth will be driven by linear channel subscriptions</div>
<div>
<div>5.Germany: contract flexibility appears to have been the linchpin to unlocking greater consumer appetite for TV and video services<br /> Germany: OTT services will continue to be dominated by international SVoD providers primarily because of pricing<br /> Italy: operator OTT will account for the majority of pay-TV delivery by 2023<br /> Italy: operator involvement in linear OTT services will dominate the future of the wider OTT market in Italy<br /> Spain: IP delivery of content is stronger here than in the rest of Western <br /> Europe<br /> Spain: Netflix dominates local OTT competition<br /> UK: Sky’s actions dominate the market; OTT integration into traditional STBs from Sky and BT will add further complexity to the market<br /> UK: SVoD will continue to generate most OTT video revenue, but linear OTT services will grow at a more-rapid rate, exceeding EUR1 billion by 2022<br /> Forecast methodology and assumptions<br /> Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers<br /> How we classify OTT video services in this forecast<br /> Further definitions<br /> About the authors and Analysys Mason <br /> About the authors<br /> Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned<br /> Research from Analysys Mason<br /> Consulting from Analysys Mason</div>
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List Of Figures

<p>Figure 1: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue and ASPU, Western Europe, 2015–20231<br /> Figure 2: Pay-TV and OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023<br /> Figure 3: Contribution of traditional pay TV and OTT video to total change in retail revenue in Western Europe, 2018–2023<br /> Figure 4: Household penetration of pay TV and the population penetration of operator OTT by country, Western Europe, 2023</p>
<p>Figure 5: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, Western Europe, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 6: Pay-TV spend and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023</p>
<p>Figure 7: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023<br /> Figure 8: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, Western Europe, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 9: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023</p>
<p>Figure 10: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, Western Europe, 2018–2023<br /> Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Western Europe, 2015–2023</p>
<p>Figure 12: OTT video users by business model, Western Europe,<br /> 2015–2023<br /> Figure 13: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, France, 2015–2023</p>
<p>Figure 14: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, France, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 15: Number of users by service type, France, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Germany, 2015–2023</p>
<p>Figure 17: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Germany, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 18: Number of users by service type, Germany, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 19: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Italy, 2015–2023</p>
<p>Figure 20: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Italy, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 21: Number of users by service type, Italy, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Spain, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 23: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Spain, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 24: Number of users by service type, Spain, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 25: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, UK, 2015–2023<br />Figure 26: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, UK, 2015–20231</p>
<p>Figure 27: Number of users by service type, UK, 2015–2023<br /> Figure 28: Scope of our spend forecasts</p>


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