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Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025

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Author - Martin Scott

"China accounted for 74% of the total TV and video retail revenue in EMAP in 2020; this will grow to 77% by 2025."

The revenue generated by the traditional pay-TV market in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) will peak at USD29.5 billion in 2022, and will then gradually decline for the rest of the decade. This forecast report analyses the relative strengths of IPTV, cable, satellite and OTT video as they compete for a share of consumer spending in the region.

This report provides:

forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, the number of premium OTT video users, their retail revenue (spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)
forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite (DTH) and operator OTT; operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by category of OTT video service – linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), TVoD (ownership) and SVoD
forecasts for eight individual countries and the EMAP region as a whole.

Geographical coverage and key metrics

Geographical coverage

Key metrics

Regions modelled:

Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

Countries modelled individually (additional in-depth coverage is provided for those in bold)

China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Myanmar
Thailand
Philippines
Vietnam

Pay-TV households and connections
OTT video users
Retail revenue (spend)
ASPU

Pay TV is split by the following access technologies:

cable (analogue and digital, CATV)
IPTV
pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)
satellite (DTH)
operator OTT
third-party (non-operator) OTT

OTT video is split as follows:

linear – channels (paid-for and free)
linear – events
TVoD (rental and ownership)
SVoD (paid-for and free)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

6.Executive summary
The traditional pay-TV retail revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific will peak in 2023
Cable TV retail revenue will stop growing during the forecast period, the growth in satellite revenue will stall and IPTV will account for future revenue growth
Retail revenue from both traditional pay TV and OTT video will grow in almost all countries in EMAP, but OTT video will now account for the majority of growth
Regional trends
Geographical coverage: traditional pay-TV penetration varies significantly by country; the household penetration of premium operator OTT services is low
Traditional pay-TV take-up will saturate during the forecast period; operator OTT services will generate almost as much revenue as traditional pay TV by 2024
OTT video retail revenue will be dominated by SVoD because many linear services are being bundled free of charge, rather than paid for separately
Customers will migrate away from cable and satellite and towards IPTV; new revenue growth will come from IP services
SVoD will continue to be the most important type of OTT video service in the region during the forecast period, primarily due to China’s scale
Country-level trends
China: China Mobile’s IPTV licences have created a step change in the market: the future for IPTV is positive and cable TV will flounder
China: BAT have boosted the number of paying subscribers to their OTT video services; there will be 397 million OTT video users in 2024 as a result

19.India: the New Tariff Order creates a less favourable commercial market for pay-TV providers, so they are looking towards OTT for revenue growth
India: OTT video continues to be consumed primarily for free; the future of paid-for services depends on how operators approach bundling
Indonesia: the second- and third-largest players are likely to drive price competition, but the incumbent, Telkom, will grow its customer base
Indonesia: bundling OTT video services alongside telecoms services for free
is the norm
Malaysia: Astro still dominates the pay-TV and OTT market, and Telekom Malaysia’s future role in TV is unclear
Malaysia: free bundling of OTT video services is commonplace
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
Further definitions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
About the authors
Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures:

Figure 1: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue and ASPU, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2024
Figure 2: Pay-TV and OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
Figure 3: Contribution of traditional pay TV and OTT video to the total change in retail revenue in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
Figure 4: Household penetration of pay TV and the population penetration of operator OTT services by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2024

Figure 5: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2024
Figure 6: Pay-TV spend and CAGRs by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
Figure 7: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
Figure 8: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2024
Figure 9: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
Figure 10: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2019–2024
Figure 11: Pay-TV connections, operator OTT users and ASPU by access technology, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2016–2024
Figure 12: OTT video users by business model, EMAP, 2016–2024
Figure 13: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, China, 2016–2024
Figure 14: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, China, 2016–2024

Figure 15: Number of users by service type, China, 2016–2024
Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, India, 2016–2024

Figure 17: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, India, 2016–2024
Figure 18: Number of users by service type, India, 2016–2024
Figure 19: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Indonesia, 2016–2024
Figure 20: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Indonesia, 2016–2024
Figure 21: Number of users by service type, Indonesia,
2016–2024
Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Malaysia, 2016–2024
Figure 23: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Malaysia, 2016–2024
Figure 24: Number of users by service type, Malaysia, 2016–2024
Figure 25: Scope of our spend forecasts

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