The Mobile services in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 2Q 2017 data

The revenue from traditional mobile services in the Middle East and North Africa will continue to decline due to the increasing use of OTT services. We expect that the revenue from voice services will decline further in line with the improving LTE coverage and increasing VoLTE availability. This report examines these trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive mobile market forecasts for the region and for six individual countries.

Table of contents: 


5.Executive summary

6.The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD72.1 billion in 2022, amidst increased competition and challenging operating conditions

7.Worldwide trends

8.Worldwide: mobile service revenue will continue to grow throughout the forecast period

9.Regional trends

10.The total retail revenue will increase slightly as mobile data growth offsets declining revenue from voice and messaging

11.Mobile: LTE take-up is accelerating in several markets; this is contributing to traffic growth, but also slowing down ARPU drop

12.Mobile: maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a subscriber base contraction in some countries

13.Mobile: growth in demand for data services and migration to postpaid connections will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU

14.Mobile: data revenue will help to offset the slowdown in legacy services growth revenue and the plateauing of mobile penetration

15.Country-level trends

16.Iran: 4G services and the entry of MVNOs will underpin growth

17.Kuwait: mobile market growth will be hampered by market saturation

18.Oman: OTT substitution will continue to erode revenue for legacy services while driving rapid growth in data


19.Qatar: the market retains its potential for growth thanks to its strong economy which appears resilient to continued sanctions

20.Saudi Arabia: growing demand for data combined with improved coverage will partly offset the declining subscriber base

21.UAE: a strong economy will continue to drive growth in the mobile market despite diminishing returns from data services

22.About the authors and Analysys Mason

23.About the authors

24.About Analysys Mason

25.Research from Analysys Mason

26.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures:


Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 20122022


Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, Middle East and North Africa and worldwide, 20122022


Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 20122022


Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rates by mobile service type, Middle East and North Africa, 20162022


Figure 5: Connections and growth rates by type, Middle East and North Africa, 20162022


Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 20122022


Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 20122022


Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 20122022


Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 20122022


Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 20122022


Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 20122022


Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 20122022


Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 20122022


Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Iran (IRR thousand per month), 20122022


Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Iran (million), 20122022


Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 20122022


Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 20122022


Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Oman (OMR per month), 20122022


Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 20122022


Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 20122022


Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 20122022


Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 20122022


Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 20122022


Figure 22: Mobile ARPU, UAE (AED per month), 20122022


Figure 23: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 20122022




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