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The Pay TV and OTT video in Australia and New Zealand: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

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DESCRIPTION

Significant change is afoot in the pay-TV markets in Australia and New Zealand. OTT video will thrive and operators (and existing pay-TV providers) will benefit from it. This report analyses and identifies key changes in the value of pay-TV and OTT video services in Australia, New Zealand and the rest of developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP).

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary
Significant change is afoot in the pay-TV markets in Australia and New Zealand; OTT video will thrive and operators (and existing pay-TV providers) will benefit from it
Regional trends
Geographical coverage: the markets in Australia and New Zealand will undergo different, faster changes to the rest of DVAP
The overall value of traditional pay-TV services will peak at USD17.2 billion in DVAP in 2020; future growth will be driven by operator OTT services
OTT video retail revenue growth will continue to be driven by SVoD services across the majority of countries in developed Asia–Pacific
Pay-TV providers and operators will counterbalance the decline in the number of cable and satellite subscriptions by gaining IPTV and OTT users
The OTT video market in developed Asia–Pacific is dominated by Japan which has some similarities with Australia; New Zealand stands apart with different dynamics
Country-level trends
Australia: the use of traditional pay-TV services will decline as pay-TV providers turn to their OTT video services for revenue growth
Australia: Optus’s 2018 World Cup issues will not limit the take-up of operator OTT video services between 2018 and 2023
New Zealand: Sky’s dominance over sports content has been lessened by
Spark; this will have a significant impact on the price and take-up of services
New Zealand: Netflix currently dominates the market, but the take-up of Spark’s Lightbox continues to grow
Forecast methodology and assumptions

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue and ASPU, DVAP, 2015–2023
Figure 2: Contribution of traditional pay TV and OTT video to the total change in retail revenue in DVAP, 2018–2023
Figure 3: Household penetration of pay TV and the population penetration of operator OTT by country, DVAP, 2023
Figure 4: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, DVAP, 2015–2023
Figure 5: Pay-TV spend and CAGRs by service type, DVAP, 2018–2023
Figure 6: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, DVAP, 2018–2023
Figure 7: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, DVAP, 2015–2023
Figure 8: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, DVAP, 2018–2023

Figure 9: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, DVAP, 2018–2023
Figure 10: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, DVAP, 2015–2023
Figure 11: OTT video users by business model, DVAP, 2015–2023
Figure 12: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Australia, 2015–2023
Figure 13: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Australia, 2015–2023
Figure 14: Number of users by service type, Australia, 2015–2023
Figure 15: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, New Zealand, 2015–2023
Figure 16: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, New Zealand, 2015–2023
Figure 17: Number of users by service type, New Zealand, 2015–2023
Figure 18: Scope of our spend forecasts

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