The FTTx conversion: worldwide trends and forecasts 2017–2022

This report provides 5-year forecasts for subscriber connection numbers and connection rates for types of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) in eight regions and in 64 individual countries.

7.Worldwide trends
 8.NGA will dominate the fixed broadband market in 2022 and FTTP will continue to increase its share of connection
 9.Forced migration has driven FTTP take-up rates to very high levels in some emerging markets
 10.In markets dominated by wholesale national broadband networks, FTTx take-up is growing steadily after a slow start
 11.Energy companies have seen very mixed take-up rates for their FTTP deployments
 12.Fibre specialist ISPs are facing an increasingly difficult market, which is making market share growth challenging
 13.FTTx subscribers have significantly lower churn than non-NGA fixed broadband subscribers
 14.Incumbents that are slow to proceed with FTTP deployments face political and regulatory risks and potential wholesale losses
 15.Dramatic increases in FTTx coverage have had a limited impact on cable broadband connection trends
 16.Western Europe
 17.Western Europe: FTTx conversion remains challenging for some Western European incumbents
 18.Central and Eastern Europe
 19.Central and Eastern Europe: NGA take-up rates will experience only limited growth in the period to 2022
 20.Middle East and North Africa
 21.Middle East and North Africa: NGA connections will be used by just 12% of households in MENA at the end of 2022
 22.Sub-Saharan Africa
 23.Sub-Saharan Africa: Take-up rates for NGA will reach 30% of premises passed at the end of 2022, lower than other regions
 24.China and merging Asia–Pacific
 25.China: Infrastructure competition and forced migration have driven FTTP take-up rates to very high levels
 26.Rest of emerging Asia–Pacific: Subscriber connection rates have generally been good but there are exceptions
 27.Developed Asia–Pacific
 28.Developed Asia–Pacific: The migration to incumbent fibre infrastructure continues to be slow in some advanced markets
 29.North America
 30.North America: NGA competition is likely to become more intense in Canada and the USA
 31.Latin America
 32.Latin America: Cable operators will continue to dominate the NGA market in the period to 2021
 34.The retail take-up on FTTP networks in which energy companies have been involved has been highest for LyseTele in Norway
 35.Forecast methodology and assumptions
 36.Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
 38.About the authors and Analysys Mason
 39.About the authors
 40.About Analysys Mason
 41.Research from Analysys Mason
 42.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List Of Figures

 Figure 1: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA share of connections worldwide, 2012–2022
 Figure 2: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2012–2022
 Figure 3: NGA conversion rates, by region, 2014–2022
 Figure 4: ADSL connections as a proportion of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2012–2016
 Figure 5: FTTx conversion rates for incumbent wholesale operators, by country, 4Q 2009–4Q 2017
 Figure 6: Energy company involvement in retail FTTP networks
 Figure 7: FTTP/B subscriber market share by lean ISP, end of 2016 and end of 2Q 2017
 Figure 8: Monthly fixed broadband churn rate by selected operator, 2015–2Q 2017
 Figure 9: Iceland fixed broadband market share, 2012–2016
 Figure 10: Cable and NGA connections and year-on-year change in cable connections, Western Europe, 2012–2022
 Figure 11: Conversion rates for NGA overall,