5G & profitability Market variables shaping rollouts

5G is coming at a time when mobile data use shows no signs of waning, in markets where value is not always easy to maintain.
5G also ushers in new rollout constraints, notably with the advent of new (mmWave) frequencies.

This report looks into the following questions:
– Can 5G meet expectations tied to heavier use?
– Does the economic equation hold up in terms of value in a mobile market that is mature – if not saturated – in some countries

GEOGRAPHIC AREA

World

1. Executive Summary

2. Modelling 5G network costs
2.1. Two market development scenarios
2.2. Breakdown of the hypotheses by area
2.3. Network modelled on an existing system

3. Understanding market data
3.1. ARPU that depends on the intensity of market competition
3.2. Mobile revenue holding steady in three-operator markets
3.3. Data consumption depends on sales strategies
3.4. IoT not yet a major factor in altering data consumption

4. Impact of increased use
4.1. Current scenario: consumption driven by video and increasingly widespread use
4.2. Disruptive scenario: new devices and/or data rates


List Of Figures

Figure 1: Two scenarios based on market hypotheses
Figure 2: The main hypotheses influencing equipment costs
Figure 3: How network modelling works
Figure 4: Median ARPU with purchasing power parity
Figure 5: ARPU progression in Italy
Figure 6: Annual growth of mobile revenue depending on the number of operators
Figure 7: Estimated average regional 3G & 4G data consumption, per smartphone
Figure 8: Relationship between average 3G-4G data consumption per mobile subscriber and average revenue per Gb consumed
Figure 9: Median 3G-4G data consumption per smartphone, by type of market, according to the year 4G was adopted
Figure 10: Impact of different IoT types on network rollouts
Figure 11: Progression of 5G revenue by application, 2020-2030, worldwide
Figure 12: Current scenario: 5G cell site density per km2 by 2030, per operator
Figure 13: Current scenario: average cost of the deployed network over 10 years, per 5G subscriber
Figure 14: Disruptive scenario: 5G cell site density per km2 by 2030, per operator
Figure 15: Disruptive scenario: average cost of the deployed network over 10 years, per 5G subscriber


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