The Driving postpaid migration in emerging Asia–Pacific: strategies for success
About this report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Executive summary
EMAP MNOs are not migrating as many customers to postpaid contracts as those in other countries
Better credit scoring, pricing innovation and improved differentiation from prepaid offers can all increase operators postpaid shares
Recommendations
BETTER ASSESSING CREDIT RISK
Bad debt is a significant and growing threat for EMAP MNOs seeking to drive postpaid penetration
Operators can use different approaches to assess the risks of offering customers postpaid subscriptions
The existence of credit bureaus can help increase postpaid penetration and MNOs can invest in such institutions
Prepaid customers usage data could be used to encourage postpaid migration, although such strategies are at an early stage
IMPROVING THE APPEAL OF POSTPAID TARIFFS RELATIVE TO PREPAID ONES
Postpaid prices in some markets are simply too high compared to prepaid ones to encourage growth in postpaid penetration
MNOs in Indonesia and the Philippines need to place more emphasis on developing affordable entry-level postpaid tariffs
U-Mobile and redONE have successfully driven postpaid growth by targeting the lower-cost end of this segment
Subsidies are not essential to drive postpaid growth in EMAP, but they can help do so
Removing some features from prepaid offers has helped to significantly increase postpaid penetration in Brazil
TARIFF AND DIGITALISATION INNOVATION
Fixedmobile bundles can help drive postpaid penetration True in Thailand is a good example of this
Attractive charges for out-of-bundle usage can play a role in driving postpaid penetration in EMAP
Innovation around unlimited data and voice offers can also ease customers concerns about out-of-bundle charges
Strong differentiation between on- and off-net calls makes little sense if EMAP operators wish to boost postpaid penetration
Digitalisation may result in greater convenience for subscribers and therefore has a role in driving postpaid penetration in EMAP
Digitalisation has played a role in Digis better postpaid performance compared to Maxis and Celcom, but it is not the only factor
APPENDIX
EMAP MNOs have higher postpaid churn than those in other emerging market, but postpaid churn is still well below prepaid levels
Most EMAP markets have very low credit card penetration, even compared to other emerging markets
Postpaid offers with add-on packages have played an important role in postpaid penetration growth in Peru
Additional data top-ups are not disproportionately more expensive in EMAP than in other emerging markets with higher postpaid penetration
ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON
About the author
Analysys Masons consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Research from Analysys Mason
Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 1: Postpaid migration can deliver important benefits to EMAP MNOs
Figure 2: Nominal GDP per capita and postpaid share of active SIMs, 2016, selected countries
Figure 3: Three key focus areas for MNOs driving postpaid migration
Figure 4: Bad debt as a percentage of postpaid revenue, selected operators, 2Q 2017
Figure 5: Postpaid subscription requirements for selected EMAP operators
Figure 6: Postpaid share of subscribers and private credit bureau population coverage, selected markets, 2016
Figure 7: Prepaid and postpaid ARPU, selected markets, 2016
Figure 8: Change in ratio of postpaid to prepaid ARPU, selected operators, 1Q 20161Q 2017
Figure 9: Prepaid ARPU, entry-level postpaid price and ratio of these two measures, selected operators, 1Q 2017
Figure 10: Postpaid net additions by operator, Malaysia, 20132016
Figure 11: Ratio of postpaid subscriber acquisition cost to postpaid ARPU, by selected operator, 2016
Figure 12: Numbers of prepaid and postpaid SIMs and postpaid share of total SIMs, 4Q 20131Q 2017
Figure 13: Number of postpaid subscribers by type of offer and double- and triple-play share of postpaid subscribers, True, Thailand, 1Q 20151Q 2017
Figure 14: Average Net Promoter Score by amount of data allowance used, postpaid subscribers, Malaysia, 2016
Figure 15: Quarterly postpaid net additions and DTAC share of postpaid net additions, 1Q 20161Q 2017
Figure 16: Digitalisation initiatives that could drive growth in postpaid penetration
Figure 17: Postpaid subscriber net additions by MNO, Malaysia, 2015 and 2016
Figure 18: Prepaid and postpaid average monthly churn, selected operators, 1Q 2017
Figure 19: Credit card population penetration, selected markets, 2014
Figure 20: Active SIMs by type and total postpaid share of active SIMs, Peru, 1Q 20091Q 2017
Figure 21: Postpaid ARPU, price of additional 1GB top-up for postpaid customers1 and price of additional top-up as a percentage of postpaid ARPU by operator, 1Q 2017
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