Economic & Retail Update - Q1 2018

Economic & Retail Update - Q1 2018

Summary

The UK "Economic & Retail Update - Q1 2018", report offers comprehensive insight and analysis of the UK economy and retail environment (including forecasts up to 2023). It provides in-depth analysis of the following: the key issues regarding the UK economy (including CPI, unemployment rate and etc.), and the key issues regarding the UK retail market (including online, offline and non-food markets).

Scope

- The UKs 2017 Q4 year-on-year GDP growth fell to 1.4%, significantly below the Eurozone (2.7%) and the US (2.5%), as a result of slower growth in production industries. We forecast GDP to remain subdued throughout 2018, peaking in Q2 at 1.6% but remaining at 1.5% for the rest of the year and throughout 2019 and 2020.
- Interest rate increases of 0.25% each time are expected for May and November this year as the Bank of England attempts to bring the 3.0% CPI year-on-year growth recorded in Q4 2017 in line with the 2.0% target by the end of 2018.
- Despite 2.5% year-on-year growth in average weekly wages for 2017, this lags significantly behind all measures of inflation, resulting in negative real wage growth and thus further monetary pressure on consumers already reduced spending power.

Reasons to buy

- This report helps executives build proactive, profitable growth strategies by offering comprehensive, relevant analysis of key economic indicators and retail sectors.
- The broad but detailed perspective will help manufacturers and retailers understand and succeed in the challenging retail market.
- Discover which segments of the market are forecast to prosper out to 2023, and how alterations in economic policy will impact the retail markets future prospects.
- Utilise our online forecasts to 2023 to consider how to exploit your online potential and decide how best to target consumers via the channel.

ECONOMIC UPDATE
Headlines
Economic update: GDP
Economic update: inflation
Economic update: interest rates
Economic update: unemployment
Economic update: real wage growth
Economic update: savings ratio
Economic update: consumer confidence
Economic update: house prices
Economic update: house transaction change
RETAIL UPDATE
Headlines
Retail update: total retail sector size
Retail update: total retail sector growth
Retail update: total retail sector share
Retail update: sector expenditure
Retail update: sector changes
Retail update: expenditure changes by sector
Retail update: sector growth
Retail update: total retail online expenditure
Retail update: total retail online growth
Retail update: online sector shares
Retail update: online sector expenditure
Retail update: online sector changes
Retail update: total retail offline expenditure
Retail update: total retail offline growth
Retail update: non-food retail offline growth
METHODOLOGY
Market sizing

List Of Tables


Growth rates by sector, 2018

List Of Figures


GDP growth, quarterly (Q3 2015-Q2 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Inflation, quarterly (Q3 2015-Q2 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Interest rates, quarterly (Q3 2015-Q2 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Unemployment rate, quarterly (Q3 2015-Q2 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Average weekly earnings growth vs. consumer price index, monthly (October 2015- March 2018)
Savings ratio, quarterly (Q3 2015-Q2 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Confidence, monthly (April 2017-March 2018) and annually (2013-2017)
House price change, quarterly (Q3 2015-Q2 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Housing transactions change, quarterly (Q3 2015-Q2 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Total retail: size of the market, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: annual growth rates overall and split by inflation and volume, 2013-2023e
Sector shares of total retail, 2018e & 2023e
Expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e
Expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e-2023e
Expenditure changes by sector (m), 2018e-2023e
Total retail: online expenditure (bn) and online penetration(%), 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: online annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
Sector shares of total online retail, 2018e & 2023e
Online expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e
Online expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e & 2023e
Total retail: offline expenditure, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
Non-food retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e

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