Brexit and the Impact on Retail - Thematic Research

Brexit and the Impact on Retail - Thematic Research

This report provides a general Brexit introduction of the UKs proposed a departure from the European Union and Brexit Impact on Retail Market.

Summary

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the UKs proposed departure from the European Union and the subsequent impact on retail. It covers macroeconomic and retail market modeling using different scenarios of the Brexit negotiations; analysis of how immigration, the Irish border and changes to tariffs will affect retail markets; and sector analysis of the individual retail markets. The report goes on to discuss the impact of Brexit on leading retailers and provides consumer survey data on sentiments around the expected impact of Brexit on personal finances and shopping habits.

Key Highlights

- The retail food market will grow faster in a hard Brexit scenario than in a withdrawal agreement or no Brexit outcome, with growth 0.7% higher by Q4 2020
- Non-food will suffer as consumer sentiment sees volumes decline, reaching a low of 0.0% growth in Q3 2019 in the event of a hard Brexit
- The largest UK ports, including Dover, the Channel tunnel and Holyhead, will be affected in different ways and individual ports will need to reduce the risk of congestion
- The clothing industry has greater immunity to Brexit uncertainty, given its higher reliance on non-EU countries for imports such as China, Bangladesh, and India.
- Consumer confidence remains negative, with continued month-on-month increases the number of survey respondents expecting both the economy and their personal finances to get worse over the next six months.

Scope

- The outcome of Brexit will have a varied effect on different parts of the retail market. Inflation will drive up food prices and increase the value of the food market, particularly in categories such as dairy, meat, vegetables, and fruit.
- As consumers dedicate greater spend to food and grocery, together with falling consumer confidence, non-essential non-food categories such as furniture, homewares and electricals will suffer as volumes fall.

Reasons to buy

- Learn how macroeconomic fluctuations will affect the retail market in different Brexit scenarios, better preparing your business to cope with pressures in 2019 and 2020
- Explore The quarterly forecasts to the end of 2020 in the food and non-food retail markets, so you can see how the two will interact and to what extent inflation will offset falling volumes in total retail
- Delve into the hot issues around Brexit, including immigration, ports, borders and the Irish backstop, enabling you to view the bigger picture of how a trade will be impacted by changes post-Brexit
- Read a detailed analysis of individual retail markets, so you can alter sales mixes to minimize expected negative impact
- View historic and current consumer sentiment around key Brexit topics such as personal finances and retail spend, giving you a greater view of how consumers will behave as the UK approaches March 2019.


TIMELINE 3
SCENARIOS 5
Withdrawal Agreement/form of relationship with EU/Soft Brexit 5
No-deal/Hard Brexit 5
Delayed or no exit/Second referendum 5
MACROECONOMIC MODELLING 6
Overview 6
GDP 6
Inflation 6
Interest Rates 7
Unemployment 7
Housing 8
The impact on retail 8
SCENARIO MODELLING 9
THE HOT TOPICS 12
Immigration 12
Ports & borders 14
The Irish border 16
THE COST OF TRADE 20
Currencies 20
Imports, exports and tariffs 21
RETAIL SECTOR ANALYSIS 26
Food & grocery 26
Clothing & footwear 27
Homewares 28
Health & beauty 28
Electricals 29
DIY & gardening 29
Furniture & floorcoverings 29
COMPANIES SECTION 31
CONSUMER SENTIMENT 33
The impact of Brexit on consumer sentiment 33


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