Melanoma - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

Melanoma - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

Summary

Melanoma of the skin is a serious and aggressive form of cancer originating from melanocytes, the pigment cells in skin, and can develop anywhere on the body. Although melanoma has high survivability, it remains a significant health risk around the world. Where possible, melanoma is treated with surgery, with stage III patients likely to receive adjuvant therapy with either PD-1 inhibitors; BMS Opdivo or Merck & Cos Keytruda or, if BRAF V600-positive, Novartis BRAF/MEK inhibitor combination Tafinlar + Mekinist. Metastatic melanoma is treated with systemic therapy with either PD-1 monotherapy (Opdivo or Keytruda) or BMS combination therapy of Opdivo + CTLA-4 inhibitor Yervoy. BRAF V600-positive patients also have the option of receiving targeted therapy.

The global market is expected to grow from $5.6B in 2019 to $7.46B in 2029 at a CAGR of 2.9%. The introduction of 12 new pipeline agents as well as label expansions of currently approved agents are key drivers of this market growth. However, multiple patent expiries of market-leading brands, occurring across the 8MM, will prohibit growth.

Key Highlights

- The main drivers of growth include the anticipated approval and launch of 12 pipeline therapies, in addition to label expansions of currently marketed therapies across the 8MM during the forecast period.
- The main barriers to growth in the 8MM are key patent expiries of immune checkpoint inhibitors and targeted BRAF/MEK inhibitors
- Among the late-stage pipeline products and marketed agents, immune checkpoint inhibitors are expected to generate the greatest revenues over the forecast period.
- The most important unmet needs in the melanoma market include: wider therapeutic options for patients who progress on immune checkpoint inhibitors, effective treatment for patients with brain metastases, biomarkers to guide treatment decisions, and wider options for patients with acquired resistance to targeted therapy.

KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

- 12 late-stage pipeline agents are expected to enter the melanoma market from 2021 onwards. What impact will these agents have on the market? Which of these drugs will have the highest peak sales, and why?
- What are the current unmet needs melanoma, which pipeline agents are positioned to counter these unmet needs? What are the opportunities for R&D?
- What is the market outlook in the 8MM from 2019-2029? Considering major patent expiries, launch of new premium priced agents and expected label expansions.
- What are the main corporate trends? Who are the current and future players?

Scope

- Overview of melanoma including epidemiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.
- Topline melanoma market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and major pipeline product sales in the forecast period.
- Key topics covered include current treatment and pipeline therapies, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting melanoma therapeutics sales in the 8MM.
- Pipeline analysis: Comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs (Phase II - III).
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global melanoma therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to -
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global melanoma therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global melanoma market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Track drug sales in the global melanoma therapeutics market from 2019-2029.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

1 Melanoma: Executive Summary
1.1 The Melanoma Market Will Expand to $7.4B in 2029
1.2 BMS Expected to Maintain its Market-Leading Position
1.3 The Lack of Options for Patients Who Progress on Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Remains a Major Unmet Need
1.4 Novel Immunotherapies Expected to Launch in Adjuvant and Advanced Settings
1.5 What Do Physicians Think?
2 Introduction
2.1 Catalyst
2.2 Related Reports
2.3 Upcoming Reports
3 Disease Overview
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
3.1.1 Etiology
3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.2 Classification or Staging Systems
4 Epidemiology
4.1 Disease Background
4.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
4.3 Global and Historical Trends
4.4 Forecast Methodology
4.4.1 Sources
4.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
4.4.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma
4.4.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma by Stage at Diagnosis
4.4.5 Mutations Among Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma
4.4.6 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma
4.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Melanoma, 2019-2029
4.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma
4.5.2 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma
4.5.3 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma
4.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma by Stage at Diagnosis
4.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma by Mutations
4.5.6 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma
4.6 Discussion
4.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
4.6.2 COVID-19 Impact
4.6.3 Limitations of the Analysis
4.6.4 Strengths of the Analysis
5 Disease Management
5.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview
5.1.1 US
5.1.2 EU
5.1.3 Canada
5.1.4 Australia
5.2 KOL Insights on Disease Management
6 Competitive Assessment
6.1 Overview
7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Lack of Options for Patients Who Progress on Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors
7.3 Effective Treatment for Patients with Brain Metastases
7.4 Lack of Biomarkers to Guide Treatment Decisions
7.5 Acquired Resistance to Targeted Therapy
8 R&D Strategies
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Development of Novel Combinations with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors
8.1.2 Expansions into Earlier Lines of Therapy
8.1.3 Development of Therapies with Improved Toxicities
8.2 Clinical Trials Design
8.2.1 Addition of Standard of Care Comparator Arms
8.2.2 Preferred Endpoints
8.2.3 Brain Metastases
9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
10.1 Overview
10.2 Competitive Assessment
11 Current and Future Players
11.1 Overview
11.2 Deal-Making Trends
12 Market Outlook
12.1 Global Markets
12.1.1 Forecast
12.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues
12.2 US
12.2.1 Forecast
12.2.2 Key Events
12.2.3 Drivers and Barriers
12.3 5EU
12.3.1 Forecast
12.3.2 Key Events
12.3.3 Drivers and Barriers
12.4 Canada
12.4.1 Forecast
12.4.2 Key Events
12.4.3 Drivers and Barriers
12.5 Australia
12.5.1 Forecast
12.5.2 Key Events
12.5.3 Drivers and Barriers
13 Appendix

List Of Tables

Table 1: Melanoma Key Metrics in the 8MM
Table 2: Pathologic Stage Definitions for Melanoma
Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Melanoma
Table 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma by Mutations, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019
Table 5: Treatment Guidelines for Melanoma
Table 6: Top 10 Deals by Value, 2018-2020
Table 7: Melanoma Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2019-2029
Table 8: Key Events Impacting Sales for Melanoma in the US, 2019-2029
Table 9: Melanoma Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2019-2029
Table 10: Key Events Impacting Sales for Melanoma in the 5EU, 2019-2029
Table 11: Melanoma Market - Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2019-2029
Table 12: Key Events Impacting Sales for Melanoma in Canada, 2019-2029
Table 13: Melanoma Market - Drivers and Barriers in Canada, 2019-2029
Table 14: Key Events Impacting Sales for Melanoma in Australia, 2019-2029
Table 15: Melanoma Market - Drivers and Barriers in Australia, 2019-2029
Table 16: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Melanoma in 2019 and 2029
Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Melanoma During the Forecast Period
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for the Treatment of Melanoma in the Adjuvant and Neoadjuvant Settings During the Forecast Period
Figure 4: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for the Treatment of Melanoma in the First-Line During the Forecast Period
Figure 5: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for the Treatment of Melanoma in the Second Line During the Forecast Period
Figure 6: Signaling Pathways Commonly Activated in Melanoma
Figure 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of Melanoma, Men, Ages 18 Years, 2009-2029
Figure 8: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of Melanoma, Women, Ages 18 Years, 2009-2029
Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma
Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma by Stage at Diagnosis
Figure 11: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma by Mutations
Figure 12: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma
Figure 13: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma, Both Sexes, Ages 18 Years, N, 2019
Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma, by Sex, Ages 18 Years, N, 2019
Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2019
Figure 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Melanoma by Stage at Diagnosis, Both Sexes, Ages 18 Years, N, 2019
Figure 17: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Melanoma, Ages 18 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2019
Figure 18: Overview of the Treatment Algorithm in Melanoma
Figure 19: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Melanoma
Figure 20: Overview of the Development Pipeline in Melanoma
Figure 21: Key Late-Stage Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Melanoma in the 8MM During the Forecast Period
Figure 22: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, Opdivo - Adjuvant and Neoadjuvant Therapies
Figure 23: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, PD-1 Monotherapy - First Line
Figure 24: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, Opdivo + Yervoy - Second Line
Figure 25: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in melanoma During the Forecast Period
Figure 26: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Melanoma in 2019 and 2029
Figure 27: Sales Forecast by Class for Melanoma in the US in 2019 and 2029
Figure 28: Sales Forecast by Class for Melanoma in the 5EU in 2019 and 2029
Figure 29: Sales Forecast by Class for Melanoma in Canada in 2019 and 2029
Figure 30: Sales Forecast by Class for Melanoma in Australia in 2019 and 2029

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