Coronavirus Disease 2019 - Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast - June 2020

Coronavirus Disease 2019 - Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast - June 2020



The pandemics epicenters have shifted to Latin America, India, Pakistan, and South Africa. COVID-19 is mainly affecting the dense populous and poorer regions of these countries. As a result, the global daily confirmed cases are increasing at a higher pace than before.

The US continues to be the most affected country globally, reaching close to 2.5 million cases.

The US reported the highest number of new daily cases on 26 June since the start of the pandemic. Chile moves up ahead of Spain. Brazil has now reported more than 1 million total confirmed cases of COVID-19. Mexico is now ranked 11th among the top most affected countries.

The report covers current epidemiology situation, forecast, and analysis of COVID-19 in June 2020, including forecast for key markets.The report will be updated on a monthly basis.

The report provide forecast for peak-week and return-to-normal week that will help the reader plan in this uncertain time, and highlights important populations and regions most affected by the outbreak.

Outbreak Continues
Latin America has had a slow start but has already shown concerning trends, and it has not yet reached peak numbers.
There is a risk of a COVID-19 surge in India as the countrys outlook remains uncertain.
Strict lockdown policies in Peru have done little to curb the spread of COVID-19.

Areas of Improvement
New Zealand was declared free of COVID-19 after 100 days.
Positive COVID-19 test rates are steadily declining in the US.
Despite the recent surge in the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India, the average fatality rate is relatively low.

Data Limitations
Testing availability and criteria differ significantly between countries.
The number of reported confirmed cases in all countries underestimates the actual number of infected people.
Mortality reporting is not standardized.
Antibody testing has limitations in accuracy and usefulness.

Special Populations
Minority ethnic groups are two to three times more likely to die of COVID-19 in the UK and US.
More chronic kidney disease patients are likely to go undiagnosed due to reduced primary care access during the pandemic.
COVID-19 increases the risk of mortality in patients with Hodgkin lymphoma.
Viral infection may increase acute myeloid leukemia risk.

Scope

- The epidemiology report covers the following areas: current epidemiology situation and forecast, outbreak continues in key markets, areas of improvements, special populations, and data limitations.

Reasons to Buy

- Obtain in-depth understanding of epidemiology data for COVID-19 and analysis of up-to-date new research and insights.

Executive Summary
Contents
1 Current Epidemiology Situation
1.1 Current Epidemiology Situation
1.2 New Cases Trend in Top 10 Infected Countries
2. Forecast for Key Markets
2.1 Infection Peak and Decline Forecasts for Select Countries
2.2 Projections of Daily New Confirmed Cases for Select Countries, Since 100th Confirmed Case
3 Outbreak Continues
3.1 Latin America Had a Slow Start but Shows Concerning Trends, and Has Not Yet Reached Peak Cases
3.2 Risk of COVID-19 Surges in India as Outlook for the Future Remains Uncertain
3.3 Strict Lockdown Policies in Peru Have Done Little to Curb the Spread of COVID-19
4 Areas of Improvement
4.1 New Zealand Was Declared Free of COVID-19 After Less than 100 Days
4.2 Positive COVID-19 Test Rates Are Steadily Declining in the US
4.3 Despite the Recent Surge in the Daily Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in India, the Average Case Fatality Rate is Relatively Low
5. Special Populations
5.1 Minority Ethnic Groups Are Two to Three Times More Likely to Die of COVID-19 in the UK and US
5.2 More CKD Patients Are Likely to Go Undiagnosed Due to Reduced Primary Care Access During the Pandemic
5.3 COVID-19 Increases the Risk of Mortality in Patients with Hodgkin Lymphoma
5.4 Viral Infections May Increase AML Risk
6 Data Limitations
6.1 There Are Drawbacks to the Available Data
7 Appendix
7.1 Methodology
7.2 Abbreviations
7.3 Related Reports
7.4 Sources
7.5 About the Authors
7.6 About GlobalData
7.7 Contact Us

List Of Tables


Table 1. Current Epidemiology Situation
Table 2. Top 10 Infected Countries
Table 3. Estimated Peak Weeks and Decline to Zero New Cases Weeks for Top Infected Countries (Excluding China)

List Of Figures


Figure 1. Projections of Daily New Confirmed Cases for Select Countries, Since 100th Confirmed Case
Figure 2. Brazil and Chile, Historical COVID-19 Data and Future Trajectory, March-August 2020
Figure 3. India, Modeled Forecast of COVID-19 Trajectory of New Cases, March-August 2020
Figure 4. New Daily Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Peru
Figure 5. New Zealand, Number of New Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, Men and Women, All Ages, 2020
Figure 6. US and South Korea, Daily Positive COVID-19 Test Rates Compared with WHO benchmark, April 15-June 8, 2020
Figure 7. India, COVID-19 Average Case Fatality Rate (CFR) (%), All Ages, Both Sexes
Figure 8. UK and US, Death Rate (Per 100,000 Population of Ethnic Group) Due to COVID-19 by Ethnic Group
Figure 9. GP Appointments (Including Nurses and Healthcare Assistants) in England
Figure 10. 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Hodgkin Lymphoma, All Ages, Both Sexes
Figure 11. 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of AML, Men and Women, Ages18 Years

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