Alzheimer’s Disease: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028

Alzheimers Disease: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028



Alzheimers disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that is characterized by memory loss, cognitive impairment, and functional decline. During the early stages of the disease, sleep disturbances and forgetfulness are generally the first presenting symptoms. In the severe stages, patients with AD require permanent observation, either by a home care professional or a family member. The rapidly declining status of patients with AD results in a drastic reduction in quality of life (QOL) for both patients and their caretakers. With rapidly increasing worldwide prevalence, AD has been identified as a major global health threat by the international medical community. Significant efforts have been made to develop a new treatment for AD, as current pharmacologic management is known to only provide a temporary improvement in symptoms. Without therapies that effectively stop or reverse the course of the disease, a large area of opportunity exists for the development of an effective pharmacologic approach.

The current competitive landscape in AD consists only of symptomatic treatments, of which there are currently six approved medications: three ChEIs (donepezil, rivastigmine, and galantamine), one NMDA-R antagonist (memantine), one combination therapy (memantine/donepezil), and one A A4 protein inhibitor (sodium oligomannate). Improvements to the approved therapies, such as easier routes of administration and reduced dosing frequencies, along with the developments that are expected to occur within the next decade, could have a significant effect on the way the disease is managed. Earlier disease detection may render the currently available therapies more useful, but until disease-modifying agents are introduced, the landscape will not change significantly.

It estimates that drug sales for AD in 2018 were approximately $2.2B across the eight major markets covered in this report. Over the 10-year forecast period, the market is expected to grow to $12.9B at a CAGR of 19.3%. This growth will be driven by the increasing prevalence of AD and MCI worldwide, and the introduction of DMTs including Biogens aducanumab, Eisais BAN-2401, and Roches gantenerumab. This growth will be driven by the launch of eleven late-stage pipeline products.

Key Highlights

- Significant growth is expected in the AD market from 2018 to 2028
- anticipate that eighteen late stage pipeline drugs will launch over the forecast period. These are expected to be the main driver of growth in the MS market across the 8MM.
- It projects that Biogens aducanumab will be one of the highest-selling DMT for AD, generating $4.2B in the 8MM in 2028.
- There are no curative therapies for AD, and most existing DMTs only have limited efficacy on treating symptoms.
- Opportunities are expected for pharmaceutical companies to develop drugs which have novel MOAs; which have potential disease modifying properties.

Key Questions Answered
- What are the key AD treatments in 2018?
- When will the late stage pipeline products launch, and how will it affect drug sales and the overall AD market in the 8MM?
- Which unmet needs will remain unaddressed in the forecast period and what opportunities remain for pharmaceutical companies?

Scope

- Overview of Alzheimers Disease, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
- Annualized Alzheimers Disease therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in four patient segments (MCI, Mild, Moderate and Severe) forecast from 2018 to 2028.
- Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the Alzheimers Disease therapeutics market.
- Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for Alzheimers Disease therapy. The most promising candidates in Phase III development are profiled.
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global Alzheimers Disease therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to -
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global Alzheimers Disease therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global Alzheimers Disease therapeutics market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

2 Executive Summary
2.1 Alzheimers Market Forecast to See Double-Digit Sales Growth out to 2028
2.2 Allergan, Biogen, Eisai, and Roche Are Forecast to Lead the AD Market in 2028
2.3 Lack of Treatments and Biomarkers Remain As Key Unmet Needs in the AD Market
2.4 Opportunities Remain for Disease-Modifying and Symptomatic Drugs Entering the AD Market
2.5 Eighteen Promising Drugs in Phase II/III or Phase III of Development
2.6 What Do Physicians Think?
3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports
4 Disease Overview
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
4.1.1 Etiology
4.1.2 Pathophysiology
4.2 Disease Staging Systems
4.3 Symptoms
4.4 Prognosis
4.5 Quality of Life
5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources
5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for AD (2018-2028)
5.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.2 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.3 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.4 Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity
5.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.6 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.7 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AD
5.5.8 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity
5.5.9 Total Prevalent Cases of Mild Cognitive Impairment
5.5.10 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Mild Cognitive Impairment
5.5.11 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Mild Cognitive Impairment
5.5.12 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Mild Cognitive Impairment
5.5.13 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Mild Cognitive Impairment
5.5.14 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Mild Cognitive Impairment
5.6 Discussion
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis
5.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis
6 Disease Management
7 Current Treatment Options
7.1 Overview
7.2 Other Therapeutic Classes
8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Late-Stage Pipeline Products
9.3 Other Drugs in Development
10 Current and Future Players
11 Market Outlook
12 Appendix

List Of Tables

1.1
Table 1: MCI and AD: Key Metrics in the 8MM
Table 2: Three-Stage Classification of AD
Table 3: The Seven-Stage Reisberg Scale of AD
Table 4: Common Symptoms of AD
Table 5: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for AD
Table 6: Commonly Used Diagnostic Guidelines for Alzheimers Disease
Table 7: Summary of NINCDS-ARDA Diagnostic Criteria for Alzheimers Disease
Table 8: Proposed NIA-AA Staging Classification for Preclinical AD
Table 9: NIA-AA Biomarker Criteria for MCI
Table 10: Commonly Used Treatment Guidelines for Alzheimers Disease in the 8MM
Table 11: Most Prescribed Drugs for AD by Class in the 8MM, 2018
Table 12: Most Commonly Prescribed Off-Label Drug Classes for AD, by Treatment Line, in the 8MM
Table 13: Country Profile - US
Table 14: Region Profile - 5EU
Table 15: Country Profile - Japan
Table 16: Country Profile - China
Table 17: Leading Therapies in AD
Table 18: Summary of Minor Therapeutic Classes, 2020
Table 19: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for AD
Table 20: Drugs in Development for AD and AD-Related Symptoms, 2020
Table 21: Key Companies in the AD Market in the 8MM, 2020
Table 22: Allergans AD Portfolio Assessment, 2020
Table 23: Lundbecks AD Portfolio Assessment, 2020
Table 24: Eisais AD Portfolio Assessment, 2020
Table 25: Novartis AD Portfolio Assessment, 2020
Table 26: Roches AD Portfolio Assessment, 2020
Table 27: Biogens AD Portfolio Assessment, 2020
Table 28: Eli Lillys AD Portfolio Assessment, 2020
Table 29: Takedas AD Portfolio Assessment, 2020
Table 30: AD Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2018-2028
Table 31: Key Events Impacting Sales for Alzheimers Disease in the US, 2018-2028
Table 32: AD Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2018-2028
Table 33: Key Events Impacting Sales for AD in the 5EU, 2018-2028
Table 34: AD Market - Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2018-2028
Table 35: Key Events Impacting Sales for AD in Japan, 2018-2028
Table 36: AD Market - Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2018-2028
Table 37: Key Events Impacting Sales for AD in China, 2018-2028
Table 38: AD Market - Global Drivers and Barriers in China, 2018-2028
Table 39: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for AD
Table 40: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for AD
Table 41: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country

List Of Figures

1.2
Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for AD, 2018-2028
Figure 2: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in AD, 2018-2028
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in AD, 2018-2028
Figure 4: AD Biomarker Tests by Pathophysiology
Figure 5: Dynamic Changes in AD Biomarker Over Time
Figure 6: 8MM, Total Prevalence of AD (%), Men and Women, Ages 60 Years, 2018
Figure 7: 8MM, Total Prevalence of AD (%), Men and Women, Ages 60 Years, 2018
Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast the Total Prevalent Cases of AD Based on the DSM-IV and Clinical Criteria
Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast the Total Prevalent Cases of MCI
Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity
Figure 11: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, Ages 60 Years
Figure 12: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD, by Sex, Ages 60 Years, N, 2018
Figure 13: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2018
Figure 14: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity, Both Sexes, Ages 60 Years, N, 2018
Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AD, Both Sexes, Ages 60 Years, N, 2018
Figure 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AD, by Sex, Ages 60 Years, N, 2018
Figure 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AD by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2018
Figure 18: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of AD by Severity, Both Sexes, Ages 60 Years, N, 2018
Figure 19: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, Ages 60 Years
Figure 20: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI, by Sex, Ages 60 Years, N, 2018
Figure 21: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MCI by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2018
Figure 22: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of MCI, Both Sexes, Ages 60 Years
Figure 23: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of MCI, by Sex, Ages 60 Years, N, 2018
Figure 24: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of MCI by Age, Both Sexes, N, 2018
Figure 25: Disease Management Timeline For Alzheimers Disease
Figure 26: Unmet Need and Opportunity in AD, 2020
Figure 27: Overview of the Development Pipeline in MCI and AD
Figure 28: Active Phase II and Phase III Clinical Trials in MCI and AD by Drug Class, 2020
Figure 29: Key Phase II/III and III Trials, Promising Pipeline Agents for MCI and AD, 8MM, 2018-2028
Figure 30: Key Phase III Trials of Promising Pipeline Agents for AD-Associated Agitation, 8MM, 2018-2028
Figure 31: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents for MCI and AD, 2018-2028
Figure 32: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in AD, 2018-2028
Figure 33: Allergan SWOT Analysis, 2020
Figure 34: Lundbeck SWOT Analysis, 2020
Figure 35: Eisai SWOT Analysis, 2020
Figure 36: Novartis SWOT Analysis, 2020
Figure 37: Roche SWOT Analysis, 2020
Figure 38: Biogen SWOT Analysis, 2020
Figure 39: Eli Lilly SWOT Analysis, 2020
Figure 40: Takeda SWOT Analysis, 2020
Figure 41: 8MM Sales Forecast by Country for AD, 2018 and 2028
Figure 42: Sales Forecast by Class for AD in the US in 2018 and 2028
Figure 43: Sales Forecast by Class for AD in the 5EU, 2018 and 2028
Figure 44: Sales Forecast by Class for AD in Japan in 2018 and 2028
Figure 45: Sales Forecast by Class for AD in China in 2018 and 2028

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