Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2017

Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2017

Summary

The third update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q2 2017 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and New Zealand. 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 34 countries in the low risk zone, 39 countries under manageable risk, 25 countries under high risk and 8 countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q2 2017.

Reverse globalization, cyber crimes, geo-political tensions, rising inequality, policy uncertainty of major economies, automation and job loss rising pollution levels, ageing population and fiscal crisis has been identified as the key global risk factors of 2017. Political stability seems to improve in Europe and North America with declining trends in populism and nationalism. However, the Africa and Latin America continues to witness fall in political stability with upcoming elections. The 2017 Qatar diplomatic crisis marked by several countries abruptly cutting off diplomatic relations with Qatar in June 2017 increased regional tensions in the Middle East. The crisis marks the growing divisions between Shia and Sunni countries. Saudi Arabia and other countries have criticized Al Jazeera and Qatars relations with Iran. The prolonged period of low interest rates seems to be over as major central banks aims to tighten monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to take the unprecedented step of reducing the balance sheet it built up to save the economy from the financial crisis. Last two years witnessed some of the worst security breaches in history, including cyber-attack during the US elections, attacks on big firms like Yahoo, Tumblr, and LinkedIn, and the recent ransom ware attack. This has revealed the ability of the hacking community to have a major influence on world events.

Scope

- Based on political stability factor, greater transparency, good governance, better regulatory quality and control of corruption; GCRI ranks Norway at the top and Syria at the bottom in Q2 2017.
- Analysis based on higher economic growth, lower inflation rate, lower debt, easy access to credit, availability of venture capital etc, Sweden tops the countries list indicating lowest economic risk followed by USA, Taiwan and Norway in GCRI in Q2 2017.
- In terms of literacy rate, life expectancy, lower dependency ratio, flexible wages and capacity to attract, Singapore ranked at the top and Chad at the bottom in GCRI Q2 2017.
- Finland tops the countries list in terms of lowest technological risk factor followed by Korea, Japan and Singapore in GCRI in Q2 2017 based on the capacity for innovation, ICT landscape, mobile and internet penetration.
- New Zealand is having the least risk and Syria highest in terms of legal risk factor in GCRI in Q2 2017 based on the property rights, strength of investors protection, intellectual property protection and efficiency in legal frame work whereas Syria is have the highest risk.
- In terms to environmental factor, Sweden is having the lowest risk and Bangladesh is having the highest risk in GCRI Q2 2017. The analysis and ranking were based on the factors including level of emissions and natural disaster.

Reasons to buy

- Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.
- The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, MarketLine analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

2 GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) - Overview 6
2.1 Global Overview: Current Scenario 7
2.2 GCRI - Key Risk Factors 8
3 Analysis of Best and Worst Performers 11
3.1 Analysis of Top 5 Performers 11
3.1.1 SINGAPORE 11
3.1.2 SWEDEN 11
3.1.3 NEW ZEALAND 11
3.1.4 SWITZERLAND 12
3.1.5 NORWAY 12
3.2 Analysis of Bottom 5 Performers 13
3.2.1 SYRIA 13
3.2.2 CHAD 13
3.2.3 BURUNDI 14
3.2.4 YEMEN 14
3.2.5 GUINEA 15
4 Top Ranked Countries-Pestle framework 16
4.1 GCRI - Political Risk 16
4.1.1 Recent developments 17
4.1.2 Things to watch in future 17
4.2 GCRI - Economic Risk 18
4.2.1 Recent developments 19
4.2.2 Things to watch in future 20
4.3 GCRI - Social Risk 21
4.3.1 Recent developments 22
4.3.2 Things to watch in future 23
4.4 GCRI - Technological Risk 23
4.4.1 Recent developments 24
4.4.2 Things to watch in future 25
4.5 GCRI - Legal Risk 25
4.5.1 Recent developments 26
4.5.2 Things to watch in future 27
4.6 GCRI - Environmental Risk 27
4.6.1 Recent developments 28
4.6.2 Things to watch in future 28
5 Regional Analysis 30
5.1 GCRI: Global Landscape 2017 30
5.2 Regional Analysis - Europe 30
5.2.1 Europe 30
5.3 Europe - Regional Investment Scenario 35
5.4 Europe- Key Regional Risks 36
5.5 Europe: Risks with key countries 38
5.6 Regional Analysis - Asia Pacific 38
5.6.1 Asia Pacific 38
5.7 Asia Pacific - Regional Investment Scenario 40
5.8 Asia Pacific - Key Regional Risks 42
5.9 Asia Pacific: Risks with key countries 43
5.10 Regional Analysis - Americas 44
5.11 Americas 44
5.11.1 Regional outlook 44
5.12 Americas -Regional Investment Scenario 45
5.13 Americas - Key Regional Risks 47
5.14 Americas: Risks with key countries 49
5.15 Regional Analysis - Middle East and Africa 49
5.15.1 Middle East and Africa 49
5.16 Middle East and Africa- Regional Investment Scenario 53
5.17 Middle East and Africa- Key Regional Risks 54
5.18 Middle East and Africa: Risks with Key Countries 55
6 Detailed country ranking in Q2 2017 57
7 Methodology 63
7.1 Global Country Risk Index - Methodology 63
7.1.1 SNAPSHOT OF METHODOLOGY: 63
7.2 Data Sources and References 66
7.2.1 Abbreviations and acronyms 66
7.2.2 Secondary sources 66
7.3 Contact Us 66
7.4 Disclaimer 67

List Of Tables


Table 1: KEY ECONOMIC VARIABLES 31
Table 2: Global Country Risk Index - Methodology 65

List Of Figures


Figure 1: GCRI - Key Risk Factors 8
Figure 2: GCRI - Countries Ranking 9
Figure 3: GCRI - Countries Ranking 10
Figure 4: Top 10 nations with lowest political risk 16
Figure 5: Top 10 nations with highest political risk 16
Figure 6: Top 10 nations with lowest economic risk 18
Figure 7: Top 10 nations with highest economic risk 19
Figure 8: Top 10 nations with lowest social risk 21
Figure 9: Top 10 nations with highest social risk 22
Figure 10: Top 10 nations with lowest technological risk 23
Figure 11: Top 10 nations with highest technological risk 24
Figure 12: Top 10 nations with lowest legal risk 25
Figure 13: Top 10 nations with highest legal risk 26
Figure 14: Top 10 nations with lowest environmental risk 27
Figure 15: Top 10 nations with highest environmental risk 28
Figure 16: GCRI: Global Landscape 2017 30
Figure 17: LABOUR MARKET IN EU 31
Figure 18: GOVERNMENT DEBT IN EU 32
Figure 19: INFLATION IN EU 33
Figure 20: MARKET SENTIMENTS ACROSS EU 34
Figure 21: EUROPE -FDI INFLOWS,2016 (Value and Changes) 35
Figure 22: OUTFLOWS: TOP 5 HOME ECONOMIES (US$ bn) 36
Figure 23: Europe: Risks with key countries 38
Figure 24: ASIA PACIFIC - FDI INFLOWS, 2016 (Value and Changes) 41
Figure 25: OUTFLOWS: TOP 5 HOME ECONOMIES (US$ bn) 42
Figure 26: Asia Pacific: Risks with key countries 43
Figure 27: AMERICAS FDI INFLOWS,2016 (Value and Changes) 46
Figure 28: OUTFLOWS: TOP 5 HOME ECONOMIES (US$ bn) 47
Figure 29: Americas: Risks with key countries 49
Figure 30: FTSE/JSE AFRICA ALL SHARE INDEX SERIES 50
Figure 31: REAL GDP GROWTH RATE (%) 50
Figure 32: EXPORT CONCENTRATION INDEX (REGIONAL AVERAGE)* 51
Figure 33: REGIONAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX 52
Figure 34: MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA FDI INFLOWS, 2016 (Value and Changes) 53
Figure 35: OUTFLOWS: TOP 5 HOME ECONOMIES (US$ bn) 54
Figure 36: Middle East and Africa: Risks with Key Countries 56
Figure 37: Americas: Country Ranking and Scores 57
Figure 38: Asia Pacific: Country Ranking and Scores 58
Figure 39: Europe: Country Ranking and Scores 59
Figure 40: Europe: Country Ranking and Scores (2) 60
Figure 41: Middle East and Africa: Country Ranking and Scores 61
Figure 42: Middle East and Africa: Country Ranking and Scores (2) 62
Figure 43: BROAD CATEGORIES AND WEIGHTS BEHIND THE INDEX 64

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