Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Power Sector Outlook 2020 - MEED Insights

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Power Sector Outlook 2020 - MEED Insights
 
Summary
 
The Covid-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) power sector in the first half of 2020. The lockdowns introduced to stop the spread of the virus saw in a decline in power demand as a result of depressed commercial and industrial activity. While a halt in spending due to concerns over the fiscal impact of the crisis saw the value of power project contract awards in the region fall to $5.9bn in the first half of the year, 9.9 per cent down on the same period in 2019. As the recovery from the Covid-19 recssion picks up in the second half of 2020, the outlook for the regional power projects market is incredibly strong. Despite sharp shock from the pandemic, power project activity picked up rapidly in July, particularly in the renewables sector.
 
With about $30bn per year of capital spending on major projects, the power sector has long been one of the strongest and most reliable providers of business and investment opportunities in the region.
 
Over the past three years, however, the sector has been embarked on a remarkable programme of reforms which are transforming the Mena power sector beyond recognition, and creating exciting new opportunities and challenges for business and government alike. Sustainability and energy efficiency have become the driving forces behind radical and controversial shifts in policy such as the removal of energy subsidies which have kept energy and water tariffs artificially low for decades. The subsidy cuts are being introduced to reduce the financial burden on the state, and also to encourage consumers to curb their usage, thereby lowering the speed at which new capacity needs to be built.
 
Procurement models are changing too, with renewed interest in privately developed utility projects in order to spread the capital cost of building new capacity over a longer period. A much broader privatisation trend is also emerging, whereby governments are looking to sell off assets and unbundle generation, transmission and distribution. This will provide short-term windfalls for cash-strapped governments but will lead to a more efficiently run power sector in the long term. Perhaps the biggest transformation of all is the drive to diversify the region’s energy mix. Faced with a shortage of readily available gas supplies and attracted by the falling cost of technology, nearly all Mena countries are now procuring or planning solar and wind projects. They are also looking at other forms of renewable and alternative energy, from waste-to-energy to nuclear power.
 
Rapid population growth, coupled with industrial and economic expansion, is driving rising electricity consumption, making power capacity addition the need of the hour for regional governments. However, satisfying the rise in demand is becoming increasingly challenging. Few industries are as important to the sustainable development of the Mena as the power sector and few industries are undergoing such high levels investment and transformation.
 
Written by MEED, the Middle East market experts within the GlobalData Group, ""MENA Power 2020"" is a comprehensive country-by-country review of the Mena power sector with in-depth analysis on supply and demand, projected investment levels, the role of the private sector and the search for alternative energy.
 
 Reasons to Buy
 
 - Quantify future market sizes with supply and demand forecasts
 - Track project opportunities and planned investments by the government and private sector
 - Understand the strategy of each country and how projects are procured and financed
 - Access power project rankings of top projects, contractors and project sponsors
 - Gain insight into detailed analysis on renewables and alternative power projects, including nuclear

 1. Regional Analysis and COVID-19
 1.1 Impact of COVID-19
 1.2 Power sector trends
 1.3 Mena power sector project pipeline
 2. Algeria
 2.1 Market overview
 2.2 Industry structure
 2.3 Supply and demand trends
 2.4 Power generation projects
 2.5 Transmission & distribution network
 2.6 International electrical interconnection
 2.7 Leading contractors
 3. Bahrain
 3.1 Market overview
 3.2 Industry structure
 3.3 Supply and demand trends
 3.4 Power generation projects
 3.5 Transmission & distribution network
 3.6 International electrical interconnection
 3.7 Leading contractors
 4. Egypt
 4.1 Market overview
 4.2 Industry structure
 4.3 Supply and demand trends
 4.4 Power generation projects
 4.5 Transmission & distribution network
 4.6 International electrical connection
 4.7 Leading contractors
 5. Iran
 5.1 Market overview
 5.2 Industry structure
 5.3 Supply and demand trends
 5.4 Power generation projects
 5.5 Transmission and distribution network
 5.6 International electrical interconnection
 5.7 Leading contractors
 6. Iraq
 6.1 Market overview
 6.2 Industry structure
 6.3 Supply and demand trends
 6.4 Power generation projects
 6.5 Transmission & distribution network
 6.6 International electricity exchange
 6.7 Leading contractors
 6.8 KRG region
 7. Jordan
 7.1 Market overview
 7.2 Industry structure
 7.3 Supply and demand trends
 7.4 Power generation projects
 7.5 Transmission & distribution network
 7.6 International electrical interconnection
 7.7 Leading contractors
 8. Kuwait
 8.1 Market overview
 8.2 Industry structure
 8.3 Supply and demand trends
 8.4 Power generation projects
 8.5 Transmission and distribution network
 8.6 International electrical interconnection
 8.7 Leading contractors
 9. Lebanon
 9.1 Market overview
 9.2 Structure
 9.3 Supply and demand trends
 9.4 Power generation projects
 9.5 Transmission & distribution network
 9.6 International electrical interconnection
 9.7 Leading Contractors
 10. Libya
 10.1 Market overview
 10.2 Industry structure
 10.3 Supply and demand trends
 10.4 Power generation projects
 10.5 Transmission and distribution network
 10.6 International electrical interconnection
 10.7 Leading contractors
 11. Morocco
 11.1 Market overview
 11.2 Industry structure
 11.3 Supply and demand trends
 11.4 Power generation projects
 11.5 Transmission & distribution network
 11.6 International electrical interconnection
 11.7 Leading contractors
 12. Oman
 12.1 Market overview
 12.2 Industry structure
 12.3 Supply and demand trends
 12.4 Power generation projects
 12.5 Transmission & distribution network
 12.6 International electrical interconnection
 12.7 Leading contractors
 13. Qatar
 13.1 Market overview
 13.2 Industry structure
 13.3 Supply and demand trends
 13.4 Power generation projects
 13.5 Transmission & distribution network
 13.6 International electrical interconnection
 13.7 Leading contractors
 14. Saudi Arabia
 14.1 Market overview
 14.2 Industry structure
 14.3 Supply and demand trends
 14.4 Power generation projects
 14.5 Transmission & distribution network
 14.6 International electrical interconnection
 14.6 Leading contractors
 15. Syria
 15.1 Market overview
 15.2 Structure
 15.3 Supply and demand trends
 15.4 Power generation projects
 15.5 Transmission & distribution network
 15.6 International electrical interconnection
 16. Tunisia
 16.1 Market overview
 16.2 Industry structure
 16.3 Supply and demand trends
 16.4 Power generation projects
 16.5 Transmission & distribution network
 14.6 International electrical interconnection
 16.7 Leading contractors
 17. UAE
 17.1 Market overview
 17.2 Industry structure
 17.3 Supply and demand trends
 17.4 Power generation projects
 17.5 Transmission & distribution network
 17.6 International electrical interconnection
 17.7 Leading contractors
 17.8 Abu Dhabi
 17.9 Dubai
 17.10 Northern Emirates
 18. Yemen
 18.1 Market overview
 18.2 Structure
 18.3 Supply and demand trends
 18.4 Power generation projects
 18.5 Transmission & distribution network
 18.6 International electrical interconnection
 Disclaimer
  

List Of Tables

 Table 1: Mena, power sector indicators - cumulative installed capacity (MW), annual power generation (GWh) and installed renewable
 capacity (MW) by country; 2019, 2025 and 2030
 Table 2: Mena top 10 power EPC contracts awarded in 2019
 Table 3: Mena power contracts by country ($m)
 Table 4: Algeria power sector key facts, 2019
 Table 5: Algeria power generation projects under construction ($m)
 Table 6: Upcoming renewable power projects by value ($m
 Table 7: Algeria’s 2030 renewables plan
 Table 8: Algeria power transmission projects under construction ($m)
 Table 9: Upcoming power transmission projects by value ($m
 Table 10: Algeria leading contractors by projects under execution ($m)
 Table 11: Bahrain power sector key facts, 2019
 Table 12: Major existing thermal power generation projects in Bahrain
 Table 13: Major upcoming thermal power generation projects in Bahrain
 Table 14: Major renewable energy projects in Bahrain ($m
 Table 15: Number of transmission substations, 2014-18
 Table 16: Number of underground cables (km), 2014-18
 Table 17: Bahrain power transmission projects under execution by value ($m)
 Table 18: Bahrain power transmission projects in pre-execution phase by value ($m)
 Table 19: Bahrain leading active contractors by value ($m)
 Table 20: Egypt power sector key facts, 2019
 Table 21: Planned merchant IPP renewables projects up to 2022
 Table 22: Energy sold from distribution companies by end-use, 2017/18
 Table 23: Electricity generating sector key facts, 2016/17-2017/18
 Table 24: Main power stations, 2018
 Table 25: Installed capacity and energy generated from isolated power plants, 2016/17-2017/18
 Table 26: Fuel consumption by the power sector, 2016/17-2017/18
 Table 27: Emergency power generation programme, awarded between December 2014 and July 2015
 Table 28: Egypt, conventional power generation projects under execution by value ($m) and capacity (MW)
 Table 29: Egypt, planned conventional power generation projects by value ($m)
 Table 30: Planned coal-fired projects
 Table 31: Energy generated from hydropower plants, 2013-18 (GWh)
 Table 32: Egypt, renewable energy supporting policies, laws, and regulations
 Table 33: Renewable energy schemes by institutions in Egypt
 Table 34: Solar FiTs
 Table 35: Wind FiTs
 Table 36: Egypt round II solar FiT tariffs ($c/kWh)
 Table 37: Egypt round II wind FiT tariffs ($c/kWh)
 Table 38: EBRD backed projects, round 2 FiT
 Table 39: IFC-backed projects, Egypt FiT round 2
 Table 40: Egypt, renewable power generation projects under execution by value ($m) and capacity (MW)
 Table 41: Egypt, planned renewable power generation projects by value ($m)
 Table 42: Capacity of transformers in Egypt, 2018
 Table 43: Total length of transmission lines and cables in Egypt (km), 2013/14-2017/18
 Table 44: Egypt distribution lines and cables (thousand kilometres), 2011/12-2017/18
 Table 45: Egypt, power transmission projects under execution by value ($m)
 Table 46: Egypt, planned T&D projects by value ($m)
 Table 47: Egypt leading power sector contractors by value ($m)
 Table 48: Iran power sector key facts, 2019
 Table 49: Iranian electricity consumption (TWh)
 Table 50: Iranian electricity consumption (% of total)
 Table 51: Iran, power generation projects under execution
 Table 52: Iran, power generation projects in pre-execution phase
 Table 53: Iranian electricity production by fuel type (% of total), 2004-2019
 Table 54: Renewable energy capacity from solar PV, wind, and small hydropower (MW), 2010-2019
 Table 55: Installed renewable energy power capacity up to the end of December 2019 in Iran
 Table 56: Companies with renewable and clean power purchase agreements up to the end of December 2019 in Iran
 Table 57: Iran, renewable energy projects under execution
 Table 58: Iran, renewable energy projects in pre-execution phase
 Table 59: Renewables feed-in tariff rates, October 2019
 Table 60: Transmission lines in Iran (km), 2010/11-2017/18
 Table 61: Distribution lines data (2017/18)
 Table 62: Iranian transmission substation capacity: MVA (2015/16-2017/18)
 Table 63: Iranian distribution losses (TWh), 2014-2018
 Table 64: Iranian electricity exports and imports (TWh), 2010/11-2017/18
 Table 65: Iran leading power contractors by value ($m)
 Table 66: Iraq power sector key facts, 2019
 Table 67: Forecast of consumption in main grid by type (%), 2018-2030

List Of Figures

 Figure 1: Mena power sector contract awards ($bn), 2011-2020*
 Figure 2: Mena power sector contract awards forecast ($m), 2020
 Figure 3: Mena installed total capacity (MW), 2015-2030
 Figure 4: Mena thermal installed total capacity by source (MW), 2015-2030
 Figure 5: Mena, cumulative installed capacity by country (MW), 2019, 2025 and 2030
 Figure 6: Mena, annual power generation by country (GWh), 2019, 2025 and 2030
 Figure 7: Mena, installed renewable capacity by country (MW), 2019, 2025 and 2030
 Figure 8: Mena renewables market in 2020
 Figure 9: Mena power contracts by country, stage and value ($m)
 Figure 10: Structure of the Algerian electricity market
 Figure 11: Algeria power consumption (GWh), 2015-30
 Figure 12: Algeria power demand (GWh), 2019-30
 Figure 13: Algeria installed capacity by technology (MW), 2019 (%)
 Figure 14: Algeria installed capacity (MW), 2015-2030
 Figure 15: Algeria installed total capacity by fuel type (per cent), 2015-2020 (Phase 1)
 Figure 16: Algeria installed total capacity by fuel type (per cent), 2021-2030 (Phase 2)
 Figure 17: Algeria power generation (GWh), 2015-30
 Figure 18: Algeria’s length of transmission network (km), 2004-2018
 Figure 19: Algeria’s length of the distribution network (km), 2010-2018
 Figure 20: Bahrain, annual power consumption and projected demand (GWh), 2015-30
 Figure 21: Bahrain peak demand (MW), 2010-20
 Figure 22: Bahrain peak demand growth (per cent), 2010-20
 Figure 23: Bahrain total installed capacity by fuel type (MW), 2015-30
 Figure 24: Bahrain, annual power generation capacity (GWh), 2015-2030
 Figure 25: Renewable energy power projects, 2010-2019 ($m)
 Figure 26: Bahrain annual T&D Losses (GWh), 2010-18
 Figure 27: Transmission & distribution contract awards, 2015-2019 ($m)
 Figure 28: Bahrain electricity imports and exports (GWh), 2011-2018
 Figure 29: Structure of the Egyptian electricity sector
 Figure 30: Egypt, annual power consumption (GWh), 2015-2030
 Figure 31: Egypt electricity consumption by end-user, 2017-18
 Figure 32: Peak load and installed capacity, 2007/08-2017/18
 Figure 33: Installed capacity by technology, 2017/18 (Per cent)
 Figure 34: Evolution of installed power capacity (GW) by fuel-type as envisaged in the ISES, 2019-2035
 Figure 35: Total capacity of distribution transformers for MV&LV in Egypt (Thousand MVA), 2009/10-2017/18
 Figure 36: Electricity consumption (GWh), Iran, 2015-30
 Figure 37: Iran electricity consumption (TWh)
 Figure 38: Iran electricity consumption, 2017/18 (percentage of total)
 Figure 39: Iran peak consumption forecast (MW), 2010-2020
 Figure 40: Iran cumulative installed capacity (MW), 2015-30
 Figure 41: Iran installed generation capacity by technology (%), 2019
 Figure 42: Iran annual power generation (GWh), 2015-30
 Figure 43: Installed cumulative renewable capacity (MW), Iran, 2015-30
 Figure 44: Iran renewable energy installations
 Figure 45: Forecast peak electricity demand in Iraq, 2016-2030
 Figure 46: Iraq power consumption (GWh), 2015-2030
 Figure 47: Consumption in the main grid by type (%), 2018*
 Figure 48: Iraq peak power demand and available power capacity (GW), 2018-2023
 Figure 49: Iraq cumulative installed capacity by fuel type (MW), 2015-2030
 Figure 50: Iraq electricity generation by fuel type (GWh), 2015-2030
 Figure 51: Comparison of LCOE of solar power and electricity from oil and gas ($/MWh), 2015-2030
 Figure 52: Ministry of Electricity plan (2018-2022) with subsidised fuel
 Figure 53: The 2015 Iraq 400kV transmission system under the short-term plan
 Figure 54: Load centres, zones and gas locations under the long-term transmission plan, 2015-30
 Figure 55: Comparison of peak electricity demand and average power generation in Iraqi Kurdistan (MW), 2004-2017
 Figure 56: Structure of the KRG Electricity Ministry
 Figure 57: Kurdistan region location of existing power generating plants
 Figure 58: Power demand by sector (%), 2016
 Figure 59: Peak power demand and average available capacity (MW), 2004-2017
 Figure 60: KRG region revised power demand outlook, 2011-20
  

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