Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022
 
 Summary
 
 The Future of the German Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.
 
 Synopsis
 
 This report offers detailed analysis of the German defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
 
 In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
 - The German defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the German defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
 - Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
 - Porter’s Five Force analysis of the German defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
 - Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
 - Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
 - Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the German defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis
 
 Scope
 
 - Germany, a major economic power in Europe, has outlined plans to increase its defense expenditure over the forecast period in an attempt to strengthen the combat readiness of the country’s armed forces. The German Ministry of Defence (MoD) has been accused of operating a less efficient military base with an arsenal of outdated equipment. German defense expenditure is projected to increase at a CAGR of 5.0% over 2018-2022, compared to a CAGR of 2.8% over 2013-2017.
 - Capital expenditure’s share of Germany’s total defense budget increased from 26.0% in 2013 to 30.7% in 2017. Over the forecast period, capital expenditure’s average share is expected to be 31.2%, while the remaining 68.8% will be directed towards revenue expenditure.
 - The MoD is expected to invest in Military-IT Networking, Frigates, Transport Aircraft and Multi-role Aircraft among others.
 
 Reasons to buy
 
 - This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the German defense industry market trends for the coming five years
 - The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
 - Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
 - A deep qualitative analysis of the German defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

 Table of Contents
 1. Introduction 8
 1.1. What is this Report About? 8
 1.2. Definitions 8
 1.3. Summary Methodology 10
 1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 11
 2. Executive Summary 12
 3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 13
 3.1. Current Market Scenario 14
 3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception 14
 3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 15
 3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 16
 3.1.4. Procurement Programs 20
 3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects 23
 3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances 24
 3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 25
 3.2.1. Germany’s defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 5% over 2018-2022 25
 3.2.2. Maintenance of the country’s armed forces and peacekeeping operations to drive defense expenditure over the forecast period 27
 3.2.3. German defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decrease 28
 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 30
 3.3.1. Germany to allocate a higher share towards revenue expenditure than capital expenditure over the forecast period 30
 3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 5.0% over the forecast period 32
 3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase significantly between 2018-2022 34
 3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 36
 3.4.1. German homeland security expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.02% during the forecast period 36
 3.4.2. Counter terrorism and cyber security to drive homeland security expenditure 38
 3.4.3. Germany falls under “moderately affected” on the Terrorism Index 39
 3.4.4. Germany has a terrorism index score of 4.3 40
 3.4.5. Germany faces a moderate threat from foreign terrorist organizations 41
 3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 43
 3.5.1. German defense budget expected to increase over the forecast period 43
 3.5.2. Germany’s defense expenditure is expected to be one of the top among European countries 45
 3.5.3. Germany allocates a lower share of GDP for defense compared to other European countries 46
 3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 47
 3.6.1. Military IT- Networking 47
 3.6.2. Frigates 48
 3.6.3. Transport Aircraft 49
 3.6.4. Multi-role Aircraft 50
 4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 51
 4.1. Import Market Dynamics 52
 4.1.1. Defense imports are expected to remain steady during the forecast period 52
 4.1.2. Germany sourced most of its arms imports from the US 53
 4.1.3. Missiles and sensors dominate military hardware imports 54
 4.2. Export Market Dynamics 55
 4.2.1. Arms exports recovered over 2014-2016 after a decrease in 2012 and 2013 55
 4.2.2. The US and Israel are Germany’s biggest arms importers 56
 4.2.3. Naval vessels and armored vehicles are the main exported defense products 57
 5. Industry Dynamics 58
 5.1. Five Forces Analysis 58
 5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low 59
 5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: High 59
 5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Low 59
 5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low 59
 5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Low 59
 6. Market Entry Strategy 60
 6.1. Market Regulation 60
 6.1.1. Investment policy promotes 100% FDI in the defense industry 60
 6.2. Market Entry Route 61
 6.2.1. Budget Process 61
 6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 62
 6.2.3. Foreign defense OEMs form large conglomerates to enter the market 62
 6.2.4. Foreign OEMs establish subsidiaries or form JVs to enter the industry 62
 6.3. Key Challenges 63
 6.3.1. Project delays deter defense industry growth 63
 6.3.2. German arms exports to large defense markets outside the EU are minimal 63
 7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 64
 7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 64
 7.1.1. Foreign OEMs have strong collaborations with domestic defense firms 64
 7.2. Key Companies 66
 7.2.1. Diehl Stiftung: Overview 66
 7.2.2. Diehl Stiftung: Products 66
 7.2.3. Diehl Stiftung: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 66
 7.2.4. Diehl Stiftung: Alliances 67
 7.2.5. Diehl Stiftung: Recent Contract Wins 68
 7.2.6. Airbus Group: Overview 69
 7.2.7. Airbus Group: Products 69
 7.2.8. Airbus Group: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 69
 7.2.9. Airbus Group: Alliances 70
 7.2.10. Airbus Group: Recent Contract Wins 71
 7.2.11. Airbus Group: Financial Analysis 72
 7.2.12. Heckler & Koch: Overview 74
 7.2.13. Heckler & Koch: Products 74
 7.2.14. Heckler and Koch: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 75
 7.2.15. Heckler and Koch: Recent Contract Wins 75
 7.2.16. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Overview 76
 7.2.17. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Products and Services 76
 7.2.18. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 76
 7.2.19. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Alliances 77
 7.2.20. MAN Truck & Bus AG: Recent Contract Wins 77
 7.2.21. Airbus Helicopters: Overview 78
 7.2.22. Airbus Helicopters: Products and Services 78
 7.2.23. Airbus Helicopters: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 78
 7.2.24. Airbus Helicopters: Alliances 79
 7.2.25. Airbus Helicopters: Recent Contract Wins 79
 7.2.26. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Overview 81
 7.2.27. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Products 81
 7.2.28. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 81
 7.2.29. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Alliances 82
 7.2.30. ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik: Recent Contract Wins 82
 7.2.31. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: Overview 83
 7.2.32. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: Products 83
 7.2.33. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 83
 7.2.34. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: Alliances 84
 7.2.35. ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems: Recent Contract Wins 84
 7.2.36. Thales Deutschland: Overview 85
 7.2.37. Thales Deutschland: Products 85
 7.2.38. Thales Deutschland: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 86
 7.2.39. Thales Deutschland: Alliances 87
 7.2.40. Thales Deutschland: Recent Contract Wins 87
 7.2.41. MBDA: Overview 89
 7.2.42. MBDA: Products 89
 7.2.43. MBDA: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 90
 7.2.44. MBDA: alliances 90
 7.2.45. MBDA: Recent Contract Wins 91
 7.2.46. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: Overview 93
 7.2.47. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: Products 93
 7.2.48. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 93
 7.2.49. Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug: Recent Contract Wins 94
 7.2.50. Rheinmetall: Overview 95
 7.2.51. Rheinmetall: Products and Services 95
 7.2.52. Rheinmetall: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 99
 7.2.53. Rheinmetall: Alliances 100
 7.2.54. Rheinmetall: Recent Contract Wins 101
 7.2.55. Rheinmetall: Financial Analysis 103
 8. Business Environment and Country Risk 105
 8.1. Economic Performance 105
 8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita 105
 8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, current US$ 106
 8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services 107
 8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services 108
 8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income 109
 8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$ 110
 8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 111
 8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a Percentage of GDP 112
 8.1.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP 113
 8.1.10. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 114
 8.1.11. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 115
 8.1.12. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP 116
 8.1.13. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP 117
 8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investments, Net (BoP, Current US$ billion) 118
 8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP 119
 8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities, Output (LCU billion) 120
 9. Appendix 121
 9.1. About SDI 121
 9.2. Disclaimer 121

List Of Tables

 Table 1: German Army Strength 16
 Table 2: German Air Force Strength 18
 Table 3: German Navy Strength 19
 Table 4: German - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 20
 Table 5: German - Future Procurement Programs 22
 Table 6: Germany Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 25
 Table 7: GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022 28
 Table 8: German Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 30
 Table 9: German Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Million & US$ Million), 2013-2022 32
 Table 10: Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 34
 Table 11: German Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 36
 Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2017 41
 Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets- 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022 43
 Table 14: Germany Budget Formation Timetable 61
 Table15: Key Foreign Players and Operations in the German Defense Industry 64
 Table 16: Competitive Landscape of the German Defense Industry 65
 Table 17: Diehl Stiftung - Product focus 66
 Table 18: Diehl Stiftung - Alliances 67
 Table 19: Diehl Stiftung - Contract Wins 68
 Table 20: Airbus Group - Products 69
 Table 21: Airbus Group - Alliances 70
 Table 22: Airbus Group - Contract Wins 71
 Table 23: Heckler & Koch GmbH (HK) - Products 74
 Table 24: Heckler & Koch - Recent Contract Wins 75
 Table 25: MAN Truck & Bus AG - Product Focus 76
 Table 26: MAN Truck & Bus AG - Alliances 77
 Table 27: MAN Truck & Bus AG - Recent Contract Wins 77
 Table 28: Airbus Helicopters - Product Focus 78
 Table 29: Airbus Helicopters - Alliances 79
 Table 30: Airbus Helicopters - Contract Wins 79
 Table 31: ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik (ESG) - Products 81
 Table 32: ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik - Alliances 82
 Table 334: ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik - Recent Contract Wins 82
 Table 34: ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Product Focus 83
 Table 35: ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Alliances 84
 Table 36: ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems - Recent Contract Wins 84
 Table 37: Thales Deutschland - Product Focus 85
 Table 38: Thales Deutschland - Alliances 87
 Table 39: Thales Deutschland - Contracts Wins 87
 Table 40: MBDA - Product Focus 89
 Table 41: MBDA - Alliances 90
 Table 42: MBDA - Recent Contract Wins 91
 Table 43: Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug - Product Focus 93
 Table 44: Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug - Recent Contract Wins 94
 Table 45: Rheinmetall - Product Focus 95
 Table 46: Rheinmetall - Alliances 100
 Table 47:Rheinmetall - Recent Contract Wins 101

List Of Figures

Figure 1: German Defense Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2013-2022 26
Figure 2: German Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 26
Figure 3: GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022 29
Figure 4: German Defense Expenditure Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 31
Figure 5: German Defense Capital Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2013-2022 33
Figure 6: German Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 33
Figure 7: German Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 35
Figure 8: German Homeland Security Expenditure (EUR Billion), 2013-2022 37
Figure 9: Germany Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 37
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 39
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2016 40
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 44
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 45
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017 46
Figure 15: Military IT- networking Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 47
Figure 16: Frigates Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 48
Figure 17: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 49
Figure 18: Multirole Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 50
Figure 19: German Defense Imports Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values) 52
Figure 20: German Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 53
Figure 21: German Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 54
Figure 22: German Defense Exports Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values) 55
Figure 23: German Defense Exports by Country (%), 2012-2016 56
Figure 24: German Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016 57
Figure 25: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 58
Figure 26: Airbus Group - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2012-2016 72
Figure 27: Airbus Group - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2012-2016 73
Figure 28: Airbus Group - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2012-2016 73
Figure 29: Rheinmetall - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2012-2016 103
Figure 30: Rheinmetall - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2012-2016 103
Figure 31: Rheinmetall - Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2012-2016 104
Figure 32: Germany GDP per Capita, 2015-2025 105
Figure 33: Germany Gross Domestic Product (current US$ Billion), 2015-2025 106
Figure 34: Germany Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 107
Figure 35: Germany Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 108
Figure 36: Germany Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 109
Figure 37: Germany LCU per US$, 2015-2024 110
Figure 38: Germany Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 111
Figure 39: Germany Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 112
Figure 40: Germany Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP,2005-2012 113
Figure 41: Germany Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 114
Figure 42: Germany Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 115
Figure 43: Germany Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 116
Figure 44: Germany Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 117
Figure 45: Foreign Direct Investments, Net (BoP, Current US$ Billion) 2005-2013 118
Figure 46: Germany Net Foreign Direct Investment as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 119
Figure 47: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU billion), 2005-2014 120

Companies Mentioned

Diehl Stiftung
Airbus Group
Heckler & Koch GmbH (HK)
MAN Truck & Bus AG
Airbus Helicopters
ESG Elektroniksystem-und Logistik (ESG)
ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems
Thales Deutschland
MBDA
Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug
Rheinmetall

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