Future of the Kenya Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Future of the Kenya Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Summary

The Future of the Bangladesh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Kenya defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- The Kenya defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Kenya defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Porters Five Force analysis of the Kenya defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Kenya defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

- The Kenya government has been steadily increasing its defense budget 2015 - 2017. Defense expenditure registered a CAGR of 4.01% over 2013-2017. The country allocated US$1.1 billion to its defense sector in 2013, which increased to US$1.2 billion in 2017. This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period, owing to the governments well-defined military modernization plans to better equip its armed forces.
- Revenue expenditure allocation decreased from 65.6% in 2013 to 64.2% in 2017. Conversely, the countrys capital expenditure increase from 34.4% to 35.8% during the historic period. Over the forecast period, Kenya is expected to allocate an average of 34.0% of its defense budget to capital expenditure, while the remainder will be assigned to revenue expenditure.
- The MoD is expected to invest in acquisition of CBRN Detection Equipment and Armored Vehicles.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Kenya defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Kenya defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porters Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

1. Introduction 7
1.1. What is this Report About? 7
1.2. Definitions 7
1.3. Summary Methodology 9
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 10
2. Executive Summary 11
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 13
3.1. Current Market Scenario 14
3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception 14
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 16
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 18
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 21
3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 22
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances 22
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 23
3.2.1. Kenyan defense budget to grow at an estimated CAGR of 3.70% during 2018-2022 23
3.2.2. Border security, terrorist group threats, peacekeeping missions, and the need to modernize outdated defense equipment to drive Kenyas defense expenditure 25
3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP will remain at an average of 1.4% over the forecast period 27
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 29
3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period 29
3.3.2. Capital expenditure is anticipated to record a CAGR of 3.36% during the forecast period 31
3.3.3. Kenyas per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period 33
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 35
3.4.1. The homeland security market in Kenya is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.60% during the forecast period 35
3.4.2. Human trafficking and illicit drugs trade to drive homeland security expenditure 37
3.4.3. Kenya falls under highly affected category in the terrorism index 38
3.4.4. Kenya faces high level of threat from terrorist organizations 39
3.4.5. Kenya has a terrorism index score of 6.6 41
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 42
3.5.1. Kenyan defense expenditure expected to remain low compared to leading spenders 42
3.5.2. Kenya will continue to remain as a small contributor in the global arms market 44
3.5.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase over the forecast period 45
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 46
3.6.1. CBRN Detection Equipment 46
3.6.2. Armored Vehicles 47
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 48
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 49
4.1.1. Defense imports increased during the period 20112015 49
4.1.2. Weapons manufactured in Spain comprised the majority of imports to Kenya 50
4.1.3. Aircraft, Missiles, and Air defense systems accounted for a total share 88.8% in Kenyan defense imports 51
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 52
4.2.1. Kenya defense exports were negligible during 20132016 52
5. Industry Dynamics 53
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 53
5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: high 54
5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low 54
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium to high 54
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high 54
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: medium to high 54
5.2. Market Regulation 55
5.2.1. Kenya does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country 55
5.2.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is determined on a case to case basis 55
5.3. Market Entry Route 56
5.3.1. Budgeting Process 56
5.3.2. Defense procurement process 56
5.3.3. Equipment manufacturers enter the market through government-to-government deals 57
5.4. Key Challenges 57
5.4.1. Corruption and lack of transparency are the factors which hinder the growth of the Kenyan defense industry 57
5.4.2. Low defense budget to act as obstacle for foreign investors 57
6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 58
6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 58
6.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Kenya 58
6.2. Key Domestic Companies 59
6.2.1. Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation: overview 59
6.2.2. Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation: products and services 59
6.2.3. Rosoboronexport: overview 60
6.2.4. Rosoboronexport: products 60
6.2.5. Rosoboronexport: recent contract wins 60
6.2.6. Grob Aircraft: overview 61
6.2.7. Grob Aircraft: products 61
6.2.8. Grob Aircraft: recent contract wins 61
7. Business Environment and Country Risk 62
7.1. Economic Performance 62
7.1.1. GDP per capita at constant prices (US$) 62
7.1.2. GDP at current prices (US$) 63
7.1.3. Exports of goods and services 64
7.1.4. Imports of goods and services 65
7.1.5. Gross National disposable income (US$ Bn) 66
7.1.6. LCU per US$ (period average) 67
7.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ billion) 68
7.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies (% GDP) 69
7.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP (LCU) 70
7.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 71
7.1.11. Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP 72
7.1.12. Services imports as a percentage of GDP 73
7.1.13. Services Exports as a percentage of GDP 74
7.1.14. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billions) 75
7.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP 76
7.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn) 77
8. Appendix 78
8.1. About SDI 78
8.2. Disclaimer 78

List Of Tables


Table 1: Kenya Ground Forces Strength 18
Table 2: Kenya Air Force Strength 19
Table 3: Kenya Navy Strength 20
Table 4: Kenya - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 21
Table 5: Kenya - Future Procurement Programs 21
Table 6: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES billion& US$ billion), 2013-2022 23
Table 7: Kenyan GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2013-2022 27
Table 8: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 29
Table 9: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion &US$ Billion), 2013-2022 31
Table 10: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 33
Table 11: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (KES billion& US$ billion), 2013-2022 35
Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2017 39
Table 13:Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 42
Table 14: Bangladeshi Budget Formation Timetable 56
Table 15: Competitive Landscape of the Kenya Defense Industry 58
Table 16: Kenya Ordnance Factories Corporation- Product Focus 59
Table 17:Rosoboronexport- Recent Contract Wins 60
Table 18:Grob Aircraft- Recent Contract Wins 61

List Of Figures


Figure 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2013-2022 24
Figure 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 24
Figure 3: Kenya GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth,2013-2022 28
Figure 4: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2013-2022 30
Figure 5: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2013-2022 32
Figure 6: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2013-2022 32
Figure 7: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 34
Figure 8: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (KES Billion), 2013-2022 36
Figure 9: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2022 36
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 38
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2017 41
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 43
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 44
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017 45
Figure 15: Kenya CBRN Detection Equipment (US$ Million), 2017-2025 46
Figure 16: Kenya Armored Vehicles (US$ Million), 2017-2020 47
Figure 17: Kenya Defense Import Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values) 49
Figure 18: Kenya Defense Import by Country, 2012-2016 (TIV values) 50
Figure 19: Kenyan Defense Imports by Category (%),2012-2016 51
Figure 20: Industry Dynamics Porters Five Forces Analysis 53
Figure 21: Kenyas GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025 62
Figure 22: Kenyas GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2024 63
Figure 23: Kenyas exports of goods and services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 64
Figure 24: Kenyan Imports of goods and services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 65
Figure 25: Kenyas Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013 66
Figure 26: Kenyas KES per US$, 2015-2024 67
Figure 27: Kenyas market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 68
Figure 28: Kenyas market capitalization of listed companies (%GDP), 2005-2012 69
Figure 29: KenyaGovernment cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (KES), 2005-2012 70
Figure 30: Kenya Goods exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 71
Figure 31: Kenya Goods imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 72
Figure 32: Kenya Services imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 73
Figure 33: Kenya Services exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2014 74
Figure 34: Kenya Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2014 75
Figure 35: Kenyas Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2014 76
Figure 36: Kenyas Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn), 2005-2014 77

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