Future of the Japan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Future of the Japan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Summary

The Future of Japan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Japanese defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- Japanese defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of Japanese defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Porters Five Force analysis of Japanese defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of Japanesen defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

- Japans military force comprises the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF), or army, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), or navy, and the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), or air force. In addition to these, the Japanese defense budget also includes expenditure on the Special Action Committee on Okinawa (SACO) and US force realignment. During the historic period, the total defense budget, including funding for SACO and US force realignment, witnessed a CAGR of -8.36% to value US$45.4 billion in 2017, compared to US$49 billion in 2013.
- Capital expenditure allocation, which stood at an average of 53.9% during the historic period, is expected to decline marginally during the forecast period to 53.8%, primarily due to the similar trends in procurement patterns. The key sectors are infrastructure construction, reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft, facilities management, and destroyer and transport aircraft.
- The Japan MoD is expected to invest in infrastructure construction,reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft, facilities management, destroyers and transport aircraft.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of Japanese defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of Japanese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porters Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

1. Introduction 10
1.1. What is this Report About? 10
1.2. Definitions 10
1.3. Summary Methodology 12
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 14
2. Executive Summary 15
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 17
3.1. Current Market Scenario 18
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 18
3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy 19
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 21
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 26
3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 26
3.1.6. Future procurement programs 27
3.1.7. Social, Political and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects 28
3.1.8. Political and Strategic Alliances 29
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 30
3.2.1. Japan to cumulatively invest US$240.9 billion in the defense sector over the forecast period 30
3.2.2. Japan defense budget (excluding SACO and US force related expenditure) to increase to US$49.1 billion by 2022 32
3.2.3. Japan SACO and US force related expenditure to increase to US$2 billion by 2022 34
3.2.4. Nuclear missile development programs of North Korea, strategic challenges from China, and a territorial issue with Russia are the main factors driving the Japanese defense industry 36
3.2.5. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to average 0.93% over the forecast period 38
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 40
3.3.1. The Ministry of Defense is expected to allocate an average of 55.9% towards capital expenditure during the forecast period 40
3.3.2. The Ministry of Defense is expected to divert an additional cumulative average of 3.8% towards SACO/US realignment expenditure during the forecast period 42
3.3.3. Procurement of equipment is expected to pick up over the forecast period 43
3.3.4. The Japanese army accounts for the largest percentage share of the overall defense budget 45
3.3.5. Ground-Self Defense Force (GSDF) defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 47
3.3.6. Air-Self Defense Force (ASDF) expenditure to cumulatively value US$53.1 billion over the forecast period 49
3.3.7. Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) defense expenditure to grow at a CAGR of 2.68% over the forecast period 51
3.3.8. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period 53
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 54
3.4.1. Intrusion in coastal areas, organized crime, and natural disasters are expected to drive Japanese homeland security expenditure 57
3.4.2. Japan faces moderate risk of terrorism 58
3.4.3. Japan faces a moderate level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 59
3.4.4. Japan has a terrorism index score of 2.4 61
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 62
3.5.1. Japan is the seventh-largest defense spender globally 62
3.5.2. Japans defense expenditure is low compared to the US, China, and Russia 64
3.5.3. Japanese defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to remain constant at 0.93% over the forecast period 65
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 66
3.6.1. Infrastructure Construction 66
3.6.2. Reconnaissance and Surveillance Aircraft 67
3.6.3. Facilities Management 68
3.6.4. Destroyer 69
3.6.5. Transport Aircraft 70
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 71
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 72
4.1.1. Japan to sign new defense import programs with foreign countries 72
4.1.2. Procurement of F-35 aircraft to increase defense imports marginally over the forecast period 73
4.1.3. The US was the key defense supplier to Japan 74
4.1.4. Aircraft and missiles were the key defense imports during 2012-2016 75
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 76
4.2.1. Relaxation in export policies to boost Japanese exports 76
5. Industry Dynamics 78
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 78
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low 79
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: High 79
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: High 79
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: High 79
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Medium 79
6. Market Entry Strategy 80
6.1. Market Regulation 80
6.1.1. No offset policy in Japan 80
6.1.2. Modified defense policies to augurs well for foreign investment in defense sphere 80
6.2. Market Entry Route 82
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 82
6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 83
6.2.3. Affiliation with Japanese defense companies can be used as an entry strategy 84
6.2.4. Foreign military sales to Japan 84
6.2.5. Entry through technology transfer program 85
6.2.6. Relaxation in existing policy can be used as an entry route 86
6.3. Key Challenges 87
6.3.1. Domestic companies fail to achieve economies of scale 87
6.3.2. Japanese export policy still poses a challenge for domestic defense companies 87
6.3.3. Opposition by Japanese civilians 88
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 89
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 89
7.2. Key Foreign Competitors 91
7.2.1. Lockheed Martin: Overview 91
7.2.2. Lockheed Martin: Products 91
7.2.3. Lockheed Martin: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 91
7.2.4. Lockheed Martin: Alliances 93
7.2.5. Lockheed Martin: Recent Contract Wins 94
7.2.6. Lockheed Martin: Financial Analysis 96
7.2.7. Raytheon: Overview 98
7.2.8. Raytheon: Products 98
7.2.9. Raytheon: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 98
7.2.10. Raytheon: Alliances 100
7.2.11. Raytheon: Recent Contract Wins 101
7.2.12. Raytheon: Financial Analysis 104
7.2.13. BAE Systems: Overview 106
7.2.14. BAE Systems: products 106
7.2.15. BAE Systems: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 106
7.2.16. BAE Systems: Alliances 107
7.2.17. BAE Systems: Recent Contract Wins 108
7.2.18. BAE Systems: Financial Analysis 109
7.2.19. Airbus Group: Overview 111
7.2.20. Airbus Group: Defense Products and Services 111
7.2.21. Airbus Group: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 112
7.2.22. Airbus Group: Recent Contract Wins 113
7.2.23. Airbus Group: Financial Analysis 114
7.3. Key Domestic Companies 116
7.3.1. NEC Corporation: Overview 116
7.3.2. NEC Corporation: products and services 116
7.3.3. NEC Corporation: Recent Contracts and Strategic Initiatives 116
7.3.4. NEC Corporation: Alliances 117
7.3.5. NEC Corporation: Recent Contract Wins 118
7.3.6. NEC Corporation: Financial Analysis 119
7.3.7. Toshiba Corporation: Overview 121
7.3.8. Toshiba Corporation: Defense Products 121
7.3.9. Toshiba Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 121
7.3.10. Toshiba Corporation: Alliances 122
7.3.11. Toshiba Corporation: recent contract wins 122
7.3.12. Toshiba: Financial Analysis 123
7.3.13. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Overview 125
7.3.14. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Defense Products 125
7.3.15. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 125
7.3.16. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Alliances 126
7.3.17. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Recent Contract Wins 127
7.3.18. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: Financial Analysis 128
7.3.19. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Overview 130
7.3.20. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Defense Products 130
7.3.21. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 130
7.3.22. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Alliances 131
7.3.23. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Recent Contract Wins 132
7.3.24. Kawasaki Heavy Industries: Financial Analysis 133
7.3.25. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: Overview 135
7.3.26. Ishikawajima - Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: Products 135
7.3.27. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 136
7.3.28. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: Alliances 137
7.3.29. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.: recent contract wins 137
7.3.30. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Overview 138
7.3.31. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Products 138
7.3.32. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 138
7.3.33. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Alliances 139
7.3.34. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Recent Contract Wins 139
7.3.35. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation: Financial Analysis 140
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 142
8.1. Economic Performance 142
8.1.1. GDP per capita at Constant Prices 142
8.1.2. GDP at Current Prices (US$) 143
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (current LCU billion) 144
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (current LCU billion) 145
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ billion) 146
8.1.6. LCU per US$ (period average) 147
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ billion) 148
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 149
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP (LCU) 150
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP 151
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP 152
8.1.12. Services Imports as a percentage of GDP 153
8.1.13. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP 154
8.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ billions) 155
8.1.15. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a percentage of GDP 156
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion) 157
9. Appendix 158
9.1. About SDI 158
9.2. Disclaimer 158

List Of Tables

Table 1: The Japanese Army Strength 21
Table 2: Japanese Navy Strength 23
Table 3: Japanese Air Force Strength 25
Table 4: Japan - Ongoing Procurement Programs 26
Table 5: Japan - Future Procurement Programs 27
Table 6: Japanese Defense Expenditure (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 30
Table 7: Japanese Defense Budget (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 32
Table 8: Japanese SACO and US force related expenditure (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 34
Table 9: Japanese GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022 38
Table 10: Japanese Defense Budget Split between Capital, Revenue, 2013-2022 40
Table 11: Japanese Capital Expenditure (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 43
Table 12: Japanese Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2013-2022 45
Table 13: Japanese Defense Expenditure for Ground-Self Defense Force (GSDF) or Army (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 47
Table 14: Japanese Defense Expenditure for Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) or Air Force (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 49
Table 15: Japanese Defense Expenditure for Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) or Navy (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 51
Table 16: Japanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 53
Table 17: Japanese Homeland Security Expenditure (JPY billion & US$ billion), 2013-2022 55
Table 18: Terrorism Index, 2017 59
Table 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 62
Table 20: Japanese Budget Formation Timetable: 82
Table 21: FMS deals to Japan 84
Table 22: Cost Comparison of Defense Equipment in Japan and the US 87
Table 23: Competitive Landscape of the Japanese Defense Industry 89
Table 24: Lockheed Martin - Product Focus 91
Table 25: Lockheed Martin - Alliances 93
Table 26: Lockheed Martin - Recent Contract Wins 94
Table 27: Raytheon - Product Focus 98
Table 28: Raytheon - Alliances 100
Table 29: Raytheon - Recent Contract Wins 101
Table 30: BAE Systems - Product Focus 106
Table 31: BAE Systems - Alliances 107
Table 32: BAE Systems - Recent Contract Wins 108
Table 33: Airbus Group - Product Focus 111
Table 34: Airbus Group - Recent Contract Wins 113
Table 35: NEC Corporation - Product Focus 116
Table 36: NEC Corporation - Alliances 117
Table 37: NEC Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 118
Table 38: Toshiba Corporation - product focus 121
Table 39: Toshiba Corporation - Alliances 122
Table 40: Toshiba Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 122
Table 41: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - product focus 125
Table 42: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Alliances 126
Table 43: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Recent Contract Wins 127
Table 44: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Product Focus 130
Table 45: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Alliances 131
Table 46: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Recent Contract Wins 132
Table 47: Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd - Product Focus 135
Table 48: Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Alliances 137
Table 49: Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. Ltd. - Recent Contract Wins 137
Table 50: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Product Focus 138
Table 51: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Alliances 139
Table 52: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation. - Recent Contract Wins 139

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Japanese Defense Expenditure (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 31
Figure 2: Japanese Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 31
Figure 3: Japanese Defense Budget (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 33
Figure 4: Japanese Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 33
Figure 5: Japanese SACO and US force related expenditure (JPY Billion), 2013-2022 35
Figure 6: Japanese SACO and US force related expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 35
Figure 7: Japanese GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022 39
Figure 8:Japanese Defense Budget Split between Capital, Revenue, 2013-2022 41
Figure 9:Japanese Defense Budget Split between SACO and the US Forces Realignment 42
Figure 10: Japanese Capital Expenditure (JPY billion), 2013-2022 44
Figure 11: Japanese Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2013-2022 44
Figure 12: Japanese Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2013-2022 46
Figure 13: Japanese Defense Expenditure for Ground-Self Defense Force (GSDF) or Army (JPY billion), 2013-2022 48
Figure 14: Japanese Defense Expenditure for Ground-Self Defense Force (GSDF) or Army (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 48
Figure 15: Japanese Expenditure for Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) or Air Force (JPY billion), 2013-2022 50
Figure 16: Japanese Expenditure for Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) or Air Force (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 50
Figure 17: Japanese Expenditure for Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) or Navy (JPY billion), 2013-2022 52
Figure 18: Japanese Expenditure for Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) or Navy (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 52
Figure 19: Japanese Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2013-2022 53
Figure 20: Japanese Homeland Security Budget (JPY billion), 2013-2022 55
Figure 21: Japanese Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2013-2022 56
Figure 22: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 58
Figure 23: Terrorism Index, 2017 61
Figure 24: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 63
Figure 25: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 & 2022 64
Figure 26: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2017 65
Figure 27: Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 66
Figure 28: Reconnaissance and Surveillance Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 67
Figure 29: Facilities Management Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 68
Figure 30: Destroyer Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 69
Figure 31: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2017-2027 70
Figure 32: Japanese Defense Import Trend, 2012-2016 (TIV values) 73
Figure 33: Japanese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 74
Figure 34: Japanese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 75
Figure 35: Industry Dynamics - Porters Five Forces Analysis 78
Figure 36: Structure of the new Japanese defense equipment agency 83
Figure 37: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2012-2016 96
Figure 38: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 97
Figure 39: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 97
Figure 40: Raytheon - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Billion), 2012-2016 104
Figure 41: Raytheon - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 104
Figure 42: Raytheon - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 105
Figure 43: BAE Systems - Revenue Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 109
Figure 44: BAE Systems - Operating Profit (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 109
Figure 45: BAE Systems - Net Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 110
Figure 46: Airbus Group - Revenue Trend Analysis (Euro Billion), 2012-2016 114
Figure 47: Airbus Group - Operating Profit (Euro Billion), 2012-2016 114
Figure 48: Airbus Group - Net Profit Trend Analysis (Euro Billion), 2012-2016 115
Figure 49: NEC Corporation - Revenue Trend Analysis (Trillion Yen), 2013-2017 119
Figure 50: NEC Corporation - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (Billion Yen), 2013-2017 120
Figure 51: NEC Corporation - Net Profit Trend Analysis (Billion Yen), 2013-2017 120
Figure 52: Toshiba- Revenue Trend Analysis (Trillion Yen), 2012-2016 123
Figure 53: Toshiba - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (Billion Yen), 2012-2016 123
Figure 54: Toshiba - Net Profit Trend Analysis (Billion Yen), 2012-2016 124
Figure 55: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Revenue Trend Analysis (Billion Yen), 2013-2017 128
Figure 56: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (Billion Yen), 2013-2017 128
Figure 57: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - Net Profit Trend Analysis (Billion Yen), 2013-2017 129
Figure 58: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Revenue Trend Analysis (Trillion Yen), 2013-2017 133
Figure 59: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (Billion Yen), 2013-2017 133
Figure 60: Kawasaki Heavy Industries - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ Million), 2013-2017 134
Figure 61: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Revenue Trend Analysis (Trillion Yen), 2013-2017 140
Figure 62: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Operating Profit Analysis (Billion Yen), 2013-2017 140
Figure 63: Mitsubishi Electric Corporation - Net Profit Analysis (Billion Yen), 2013-2017 141
Figure 64: Japanese GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025 142
Figure 65: Japan GDP at Current Prices (USD Billion), 2015-2025 143
Figure 66: Japanese Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Bn), 2005-2013 144
Figure 67: Japanese Imports of Goods and Services (LCU), 2005-2013 145
Figure 68: Gross National Disposable Income (US$ billion), 2005-2013 146
Figure 69: Japanese LCU per US$, 2015-2024 147
Figure 70: Japanese Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ billion), 2005-2012 148
Figure 71: Japanese market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012 149
Figure 72: Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012 150
Figure 73: Japanese Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014 151
Figure 74: Japanese Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014 152
Figure 75: Japanese Services Imports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014 153
Figure 76: Japanese Service Exports as a percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014 154
Figure 77: Japanese Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2014 155
Figure 78: Japanese Net Foreign Direct Investment as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 156
Figure 79: Japanese Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion), 2005-2014 157

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