Future of the Australia Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Future of the Australia Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Summary

The Future of Australia Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Australia defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- Australia defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of Australia defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Porters Five Force analysis of Australia defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of Australia defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

- The Australian government remains committed to building strong defense capabilities. The countrys defense budget recorded a CAGR of 0.28% during the historic period (2013-2017), from US$26.2 billion in 2013 to US$26.5 billion in 2017. Modernization initiatives and advanced equipment procurement programs - as outlined in white papers published by the Australian Department of Defence (DoD) - will drive expenditure. According to one white paper, the country is expected to undertake a number of modernization and procurement programs over the coming decade.
- During the historic period, an average of 27.9% of the total defense budget was allocated to capital expenditure; this will reach 39.4% over the forecast period. This is predominantly due to Australias planned armed force modernization program and procurement plans. Specifically, investment will be allocated to replacing ageing armored vehicles with infantry fighting and combat reconnaissance vehicles.
- The MoD is expected to invest in Multi-role aircraft, submarines, frigates, multi-role aircraft MRO, land-based C4ISR, and armored fighting vehicles

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of Australia defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of Australia defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porters Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

1. Introduction 9
1.1. What is this Report About? 9
1.2. Definitions 9
1.3. Summary Methodology 12
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 13
2. Executive Summary 14
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 16
3.1. Current Market Scenario 17
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 17
3.1.2. Military doctrine and strategy 18
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 19
3.1.4. Procurement programs 22
3.1.5. Ongoing procurement programs 22
3.1.6. Future procurement programs 24
3.1.7. Social, political and economic environment and support for defense projects 26
3.1.8. Political and strategic alliances 27
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 28
3.2.1. The Australian defense budget will grow over the forecast period 28
3.2.2. Military modernization and participation in peacekeeping missions are the major factors driving the Australian defense industry 31
3.2.3. Australian defense budget be at 2.0% of GDP over 2018-2022 33
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 35
3.3.1. Capital expenditure share to increase over the next five years 35
3.3.2. Capital expenditure to post a forecast-period CAGR of 9.83% 37
3.3.3. Much of the defense budget is allocated to cyberspace and space-related security operations 38
3.3.4. Australia to invest US$5.88 billion on its land forces over the forecast period 40
3.3.5. Air force budget to grow at a CAGR of 6.15% over the forecast period 43
3.3.6. Naval expenditure will post a forecast-period CAGR of 4.21% 46
3.3.7. A large proportion of Australias defense budget is allocated to others 49
3.3.8. Per capita defense expenditure to increase over the forecast period 52
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 53
3.4.1. Measures to curb organized crime, cyberattacks, and maritime threats to drive homeland security expenditure 56
3.4.2. Australia faces minimal threat from foreign terrorist organizations 58
3.5. Australia faces moderate threat from foreign terrorist organizations 59
3.6. Australia has a terrorism index score of 2.7 61
3.7. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 62
3.7.1. Australian defense expenditure to remain modest compared to the leading spenders 62
3.7.2. Australia will continue to dominate the arms market in the Asia-Pacific region 64
3.7.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to remain at 1.8% over forecast period 65
3.8. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 66
3.8.1. Multirole aircraft 66
3.8.2. Submarines 67
3.8.3. Frigates 68
3.8.4. Multirole aircraft MRO 69
3.8.5. Land-based C4ISR 70
3.8.6. Armored fighting vehicles 71
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 74
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 75
4.1.1. Defense imports expected to increase considerably over the forecast period 75
4.1.2. The US was the largest arms supplier to Australia during 20122016 76
4.1.3. Imports of aircraft and missiles expected to surge over the forecast period 77
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 78
4.2.1. Defense exports are expected to increase over the forecast period owing to the government initiatives 78
4.2.2. The US was the main importer of the Australian defense goods during 20122016 79
4.2.3. Aircraft and ships constitute the majority of Australian exports 80
5. Industry Dynamics 81
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 81
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium 82
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high 82
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high 82
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium to high 82
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high 82
6. Market Entry Strategy 83
6.1. Market Regulation 83
6.1.1. AIC program ensures the participation of local industry 83
6.1.2. Approval for foreign investment in defense industry set at US$216.2 million 83
6.2. Market Entry Route 85
6.2.1. Budgeting process 85
6.2.2. Procurement policy and process 86
6.2.3. Establishing a domestic subsidiary is the preferred market entry route 87
6.2.4. Foreign OEMs sub-contract defense deals to domestic firms to enter the market 88
6.2.5. Foreign OEMs offer domestic companies access to global supply chains in order to enter the industry 88
6.3. Key Challenges 89
6.3.1. Cost overruns and project delays continue to worry the defense industry 89
6.3.2. Low allocation of skilled labor in the defense industry 90
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 91
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 91
7.2. Key Domestic Companies 92
7.2.1. Thales Australia: overview 92
7.2.2. Thales Australia: products and services 92
7.2.3. Thales Australia: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 93
7.2.4. Thales Australia: alliances 94
7.2.5. Thales Australia: recent contract wins 95
7.2.6. Boeing Defense Australia: overview 97
7.2.7. Boeing Defense Australia: products and services 97
7.2.8. Boeing Defense Australia: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 97
7.2.9. Boeing Defense Australia: alliances 98
7.2.10. Boeing Defense Australia: Recent Contract Wins 99
7.2.11. Lockheed Martin Australia: overview 100
7.2.12. Lockheed Martin Australia: products and services 100
7.2.13. Lockheed Martin Australia: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 100
7.2.14. Lockheed Martin Australia: alliances 101
7.2.15. Lockheed Martin Australia: recent contract wins 101
7.2.16. Raytheon Australia: overview 102
7.2.17. Raytheon Australia: products and services 102
7.2.18. Raytheon Australia: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 102
7.2.19. Raytheon Australia: alliances 103
7.2.20. Raytheon Australia: recent contract wins 103
7.2.21. Austal Ltd: overview 105
7.2.22. Austal Ltd: products and services 105
7.2.23. Austal Ltd: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 105
7.2.24. Austal Ltd: alliances 106
7.2.25. Austal Ltd: recent contract wins 106
7.2.26. Saab Systems: overview 107
7.2.27. Saab Systems: products and services 107
7.2.28. Saab Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 108
7.2.29. Saab Systems: alliances 108
7.2.30. Saab Systems: recent contract wins 108
7.2.31. General Dynamics Land Systems Australia: overview 110
7.2.32. General Dynamics Land Systems Australia: products and services 110
7.2.33. General Dynamics Land Systems Australia: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 110
7.2.34. General Dynamics Land Systems Australia: recent contract wins 111
7.2.35. Navantia: overview 112
7.2.36. Navantia: products and services 112
7.2.37. Navantia: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 112
7.2.38. Navantia: alliances 113
7.2.39. Navantia: recent contract wins 113
7.2.40. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: overview 114
7.2.41. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: Major Products and Services 114
7.2.42. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 114
7.2.43. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: alliances 115
7.2.44. Airbus Group Australia Pacific: Recent Contract Wins 115
7.3. Key Public Sector Company 116
7.3.1. ASC: overview 116
7.3.2. ASC: Major Products and Services 116
7.3.3. ASC: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 116
7.3.4. ASC: alliances 117
7.3.5. ASC: Recent Contract Wins 117
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 119
8.1. Economic Performance 119
8.1.1. GDP per capita 119
8.1.2. GDP at current prices (US$) 120
8.1.3. Exports of goods and services current prices 121
8.1.4. Imports of goods and services (current prices) 122
8.1.5. Gross national disposable income (US$ billion) 123
8.1.6. Local currency unit per US dollar 124
8.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies 125
8.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies a percentage of GDP 126
8.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP 127
8.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 128
8.1.11. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP 129
8.1.12. Goods trade surplus/deficit as a percentage of GDP 130
8.1.13. Service imports as a percentage of GDP 131
8.1.14. Service exports as a percentage of GDP 132
8.1.15. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion) 133
8.1.16. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP 134
8.1.17. Mining, manufacturing, utilities output (LCU Billion) 135
9. Appendix 136
9.1. About SDI 136
9.2. Disclaimer 136

List Of Tables

Table 1: Australia Army Strength 19
Table 2: Australian Navy Strength 20
Table 3: Australia Air Force Strength 21
Table 4: Australia Procurement Programs 22
Table 5: Australia Future Procurement Programs 24
Table 6: Australia Defense Expenditure (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 20132022 28
Table 7: Australia GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 20132022 33
Table 8: Australia Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 20132021 35
Table 9: Australia Defense Capital Expenditure (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 20132022 37
Table 10: Australia Defense Expenditure Allocation (%), 20132022 38
Table 11: Australia Defense Expenditure for Army (AUD Billion & US$ Billion), 20132022 41
Table 12: Australia Defense Expenditure for Air Force (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 20132022 44
Table 13: Australia Defense Expenditure for Navy (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 20132022 47
Table 14: Australia Defense Expenditure for Others (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 20132022 50
Table 15: Australia Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 20132022 52
Table 16: Australia Homeland Security Expenditure (AUD Billion/US$ Billion), 20132022 53
Table 17: Terrorism Index, 2017 59
Table 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets (US$ Billion), 20132017 vs. 20182022 62
Table 19: FATA Approval for Acquisition within the Defense sector in Australia 84
Table 20: Australia Budget Formation Timetable: (July 1June 30) 85
Table 21: FMS deals to Australia 86
Table 22: Key Foreign OEMS and Subsidiaries 87
Table 23: Small Projects with Cost Overruns 89
Table 24: Major Projects with Cost Overruns 89
Table 25: Project Delays 90
Table 26: Competitive Landscape of the Polish Defense Industry 91
Table 27: Thales Australia Main Products and Services 92
Table 28: Thales Australia Alliances 94
Table 29: Thales Australia Recent Contract Wins 95
Table 30: Boeing Defense Australia Main Products and Services 97
Table 31: Boeing Defense Australia Alliances 98
Table 32: Boeing Defense Australia Recent Contract Wins 99
Table 33: Lockheed Martin Australia Main Products and Services 100
Table 34: Lockheed Martin Australia Alliances 101
Table 35: Lockheed Martin Australia Recent Contract Wins 101
Table 36: Raytheon Australia Main Products and Services 102
Table 37: Raytheon Australia Alliances 103
Table 38: Raytheon Australia Recent Contract Wins 103
Table 39: Austal Ltd Main Products and Services 105
Table 40: Austal Alliances 106
Table 41: Austal Ltd Recent Contract wins 106
Table 42: Saab Systems Main Products and Services 107
Table 43: Saab Systems Alliances 108
Table 44: Saab Systems Recent Contract Wins 108
Table 45: General Dynamics Land Systems Australia Main Products and Services 110
Table 46: General Dynamics Land Systems Australia Recent Contract Wins 111
Table 47: Navantia Main Products and Services 112
Table 48: Navantia Alliances 113
Table 49: Navantia Recent Contract Wins 113
Table 50: Airbus Group Australia Pacific Main Products and Services 114
Table 51: Airbus Group Australia Pacific Alliances 115
Table 52: Airbus Group Australia Pacific Recent Contract Wins 115
Table 53: ASC Main Products and Services 116
Table 54: ASC Alliances 117
Table 55: ASC Recent Contract wins 117

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Australia Defense Expenditure (AUD Billion), 20132022 29
Figure 2: Australia Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 20132022 30
Figure 3: Australia GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 20132022 34
Figure 4: Australia Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 20132022 36
Figure 5: Australia Defense Expenditure Allocation (%), 20132022 39
Figure 6: Australia Army Defense Budget (AUD Billion), 20132022 42
Figure 7: Australia Army Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 20132022 42
Figure 8: Australia Air Force Defense Budget (AUD Billion), 20132022 45
Figure 9: Australia Air Force Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 20132022 45
Figure 10: Australia Naval Defense Budget (AUD Billion), 20132022 48
Figure 11: Australia Naval Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 20132022 49
Figure 12: Australia Others Defense Budget (AUD Billion), 20132022 50
Figure 13: Australia Others Defense Budget (US$ Billion), 20132022 51
Figure 14: Australian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 20132022 52
Figure 15: Australia Homeland Security Budget (AUD Billion), 20132022 54
Figure 16: Australia Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 20132022 55
Figure 17: Terrorism Heat Map, 2017 58
Figure 18: Terrorism Index, 2017 61
Figure 19: Benchmarking with Key Markets (%) 20132017 vs. 20182022 63
Figure 20: Defense Expenditure of the Worlds Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2017 and 2022 64
Figure 21: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP by Country (%), 2017 65
Figure 22: Multirole Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), 20172027 66
Figure 23: Diesel Electric Submarine Market Size (US$ Billion), 20172027 67
Figure 24: Frigates Market Size (US$ Million), 20172027 68
Figure 25: Multirole Aircraft MRO Market Size (US$ Million), 20172027 69
Figure 26: Land-Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 20172027 71
Figure 27: Armored Fighting Vehicles Market Size (US$ Million), 20172027 73
Figure 28: Australia Defense Import (US$ Million), 20122016 75
Figure 29: Australia Defense Import by Country (%), 20122016 76
Figure 30: Australia Defense Imports by Category (%), 20122016 77
Figure 31: Australia Defense Export Trend (US$ Million), 20122016 78
Figure 32: Australian Defense Exports by Country (%), 20122016 79
Figure 33: Australian Defense Exports by Category (%), 20122016 80
Figure 34: Industry Dynamics Porters Five Forces Analysis 81
Figure 35: Australias GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 20152025 119
Figure 36: Australia GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 20152025 120
Figure 37: Australia Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 20052014 121
Figure 38: Australia Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 20052014 122
Figure 39: Australia Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 20052012 123
Figure 40: Australia Local Currency Unit per US$ Exchange Rate, 20152024 124
Figure 41: Australia Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 20052012 125
Figure 42: Australia Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as Percentage of GDP, 20052012 126
Figure 43: Australia Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 20052012 127
Figure 44: Australia Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 20052014 128
Figure 45: Australia Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 20052014 129
Figure 46: Australia Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 20052014 130
Figure 47: Australia Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 20052014 131
Figure 48: Australia Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 20052014 132
Figure 49: Australia Foreign Direct Investment, Net BoP (US$ Billion), 20052014 133
Figure 50: Australia Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 20052014 134
Figure 51: Australia Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 20052014 135

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