Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

"Future of the Chinese Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape, and Forecasts to 2023", published by it, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

This report offers a detailed analysis of the Chinese defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- The Chinese defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Chinese defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Chinese defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, a threat of substitution, the intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Chinese defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Scope

- China is the second largest defense spender globally after the US. The country’s large military budget is primarily driven by its robust economic growth and its desire to match the US in terms of military capabilities.
- Additionally, China shares its borders with 14 countries and is involved in several border disputes, which increases the need to invest in the recruitment and maintenance of a large number of troops to prevent infiltration or further hostile acts.
- The Chinese defense budget grew at a CAGR of 7.10% during 2014-2018, from US$131.1 billion in 2014 to US$172.5 billion in 2018.
- Defense imports are expected to remain low over the forecast period as China is investing in the local manufacture of its defense requirements, such as J-15 fighters, J-20 fighters, Yun-20 and Y-30 transport aircraft, and Type 055 destroyers.
- The country’s focus on manufacturing and procuring defense equipment domestically is reflected in the steady decline of imports since 2013; it is expected that China will continue to procure defense equipment from its nationalized companies over the forecast period.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Chinese defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Chinese defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends, and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts.


1. Introduction 8
1.1. What is this Report About? 8
1.2. Definitions 8
1.3. Summary Methodology 10
1.4. About GlobalData 11
2. Executive Summary 12
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 14
3.1. Current Market Scenario 15
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 15
3.1.2. Military doctrine and strategy 17
3.1.3. Military fleet size 20
3.1.4. Procurement programs 25
3.1.5. Top procurement programs by value (US$ million) 2018-2023 28
3.1.6. Social, political and economic environment and support for defense projects 29
3.1.7. Political and strategic alliances 30
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 31
3.2.1. Chinese defense expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.92% over the forecast period 31
3.2.2. Race over military supremacy, territorial disputes, peacekeeping missions, increasing tension with the US, and research and development are the main factors driving Chinese defense expenditure 33
3.2.3. Chinese defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to remain stable 35
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 37
3.3.1. China is expected to allocate a high share to revenue expenditure over the forecast period 37
3.3.2. Defense capital expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.92% over the forecast period 39
3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase substantially during the forecast period 41
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 43
3.4.1. Chinese homeland security is expected to reach US$40.4 billion by 2023 43
3.4.2. Organized crime, terrorist threats, and cyber protection are expected to drive Chinese homeland security expenditure 45
3.4.3. China falls under the “highly affected” terrorism category 47
3.4.4. China is “highly affected” by terrorism as per the Terrorism Index 48
3.4.5. China has a Terrorism Index score of 5.5 50
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 51
3.5.1. China will be the largest defense spender in Asia over the forecast period 51
3.5.2. China has the second largest defense budget in the world 53
3.5.3. China allocates a lower share of GDP to defense compared to the US and other Asian countries 54
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 55
3.6.1. Top defense market sectors by value (US$ million) - projections over 2018-2023 55
3.6.2. Missile defense systems 56
3.6.3. Land-based C4ISR 57
3.6.4. Physical Security 58
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 59
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 61
4.1.1. China is expected to import fewer weapons over the forecast period 61
4.1.2. Russia accounts for the majority of Chinese defense imports 62
4.1.3. Aircraft, engines, and naval vessels are the most imported military hardware 63
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 64
4.2.1. Defense exports are expected to grow over the forecast period 64
4.2.2. Pakistan emerged as the biggest importer of Chinese low-cost defense equipment exports 65
4.2.3. Chinese aircraft and naval vessel exports expected to increase 66
5. Industry Dynamics 67
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 67
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of the Supplier: High 68
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of the Buyer: Medium 68
5.1.3. Barriers to Entry: High 68
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low 69
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: High 69
6. Market Entry Strategy 70
6.1. Market Regulation 70
6.1.1. The Chinese military-industrial complex opens up to private sector participation 70
6.1.2. Defense industry remains closed to foreign direct investment 70
6.2. Market Entry Route 71
6.2.1. Budget process 71
6.2.2. Procurement policy and process 71
6.2.3. Foreign technology finds its way into the Chinese defense industry through civil-military integration 71
6.3. Key Challenges 73
6.3.1. Lack of competition and long production cycles continue to hamper the performance of the Chinese defense industry 73
6.3.2. Arms embargo imposed by the US and EU 73
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 74
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 74
7.1.1. State-owned enterprises are the only major players in China’s defense industry 75
7.1.2. Foreign technology enters the Chinese defense market by supplying civil use products 77
7.2. Key Domestic Companies 78
7.2.1. China North Industries Corporation: Overview 78
7.2.2. China North Industries Corporation: Products 79
7.2.3. China North Industries Corporation: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 80
7.2.4. China North Industries Corporation: Alliances 81
7.2.5. China North Industries Corporation: Recent contract wins 82
7.2.6. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Overview 83
7.2.7. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Products 83
7.2.8. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 84
7.2.9. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Alliances 85
7.2.10. China Electronics Technology Group Corporation: Recent contract wins 85
7.2.11. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Overview 86
7.2.12. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Products 86
7.2.13. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 86
7.2.14. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Alliances 88
7.2.15. Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Recent contract wins 88
7.2.16. China National Nuclear Corporation: Overview 89
7.2.17. China National Nuclear Corporation: Services 89
7.2.18. China National Nuclear Corporation: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives 90
7.2.19. China National Nuclear Corporation: Alliances 91
7.2.20. China National Nuclear Corporation: Recent contract wins 92
7.2.21. China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation: Overview 93
7.2.22. China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation: Services 93
7.2.23. China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 93
7.2.24. China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation: Alliances 94
7.2.25. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: Overview 95
7.2.26. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: Products 95
7.2.27. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 96
7.2.28. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation: Alliances 96
7.2.29. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Overview 97
7.2.30. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Products 97
7.2.31. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 97
7.2.32. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Alliances 98
7.2.33. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Overview 99
7.2.34. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Products 99
7.2.35. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 100
7.2.36. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Alliances 100
7.2.37. China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Recent contract wins 101
7.2.38. China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation: Overview 102
7.2.39. China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation: Products 102
7.2.40. China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: Overview 103
7.2.41. China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: Products 103
7.2.42. China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation: Recent announcements and strategic initiatives 104
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 105
8.1. Economic Performance 105
8.1.1. Gross Domestic Product per Capita 105
8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product (Current US$ Billion) 106
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services in LCU 107
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services in LCU 108
8.1.5. LCU per US$ 109
8.1.6. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion) 110
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP) 111
8.1.8. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 112
8.1.9. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 113
8.1.10. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP 114
8.1.11. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP 115
8.1.12. Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ Billion) 116
8.1.13. Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP 117
8.1.14. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 118
9. Appendix 119
9.1. About GlobalData 119
9.2. Disclaimer 119


List Of Tables


Table 1: China - Defense Modernization 19
Table 2: Chinese Army Strength 20
Table 3: Chinese Air Force Strength 21
Table 4: Chinese Navy Strength 23
Table 5: China - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 25
Table 6: China - Future Procurement Programs 27
Table 7: Top Chinese Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 28
Table 8: China Defense Expenditure (CYN Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 31
Table 9: China GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a % of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 35
Table 10: China Defense Expenditure Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 37
Table 11: China Defense Capital Expenditure (CYN Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 39
Table 12: China per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 41
Table 13: China Homeland Security Expenditure (CYN Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 43
Table 14: Terrorism Index 48
Table 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 51
Table 16: Top Chinese Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 55
Table 17: Chinese Budget Formation Timetable 71
Table 18: Top Defense Suppliers in the Chinese Defense Industry by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023 74
Table 19: Chinese Defense Enterprise Groups 75
Table 20: Competitive Landscape of the Chinese Defense Industry 76
Table 21: Chinese Military-Industrial Complex - Competitive Landscape 77
Table 22: China North Industries Corporation - Product Focus 79
Table 23: China North Industries Corporation - Alliances 81
Table 24: China North Industries Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 82
Table 25: China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Product Focus 83
Table 26: China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Alliances 85
Table 27: China Electronics Technology Group Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 85
Table 28: Aviation Industry Corporation of China - Product Focus 86
Table 29: Aviation Industry Corporation of China - Alliances 88
Table 30: Aviation Industry Corporation of China: Recent Contract Wins 88
Table 31: China National Nuclear Corporation - Services Focus 89
Table 32: China National Nuclear Corporation - Alliances 91
Table 33: China National Nuclear Corporation - Recent Contract Wins 92
Table 34: China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation - Services Focus 93
Table 35: China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation- Alliances 94
Table 36: China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation - Product Focus 95
Table 37: China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation - Alliances 96
Table 38: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation - Product Focus 97
Table 39: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation- Alliances 98
Table 40: China State Shipbuilding Corporation - Product Focus 99
Table 41: China State Shipbuilding Corporation - Alliances 100
Table 42: China State Shipbuilding Corporation: Recent Contract Wins 101
Table 43: China National Electronics Import and Export Corporation - Product Focus 102
Table 44: China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation - Product Focus 103


List Of Figures


Figure 1: China Defense Expenditure (CYN Billion), 2014-2023 32
Figure 2: China Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 32
Figure 3: Chinese GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a % of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 36
Figure 4: Chinese Defense Expenditure Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 38
Figure 5: China Defense Capital Expenditure (CYN Billion), 2014-2023 40
Figure 6: China Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 40
Figure 7: China Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 42
Figure 8: China Homeland Security Expenditure (CYN Billion), 2014-2023 44
Figure 9: China Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 44
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 47
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 50
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 52
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion),2018 and 2023 53
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 54
Figure 15: Chinese Missile Defense Systems Market Size (US$ Billion), 2018-2023 56
Figure 16: Chinese Land-based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Billion), 2018-2023 57
Figure 17: Chinese Physical Security Market Size (US$ Billion), 2018-2023 58
Figure 18: Top Chinese Defense Procurements in terms of Supplier Relationships 60
Figure 19: Chinese Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 61
Figure 20: Chinese Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017 62
Figure 21: Chinese Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 63
Figure 22: Chinese Defense Exports Trend, 2013-2017 (TIV values) 64
Figure 23: Chinese Defense Exports by Country (%), 2013-2017 65
Figure 24: Chinese Defense Exports by Category (%), 2013-2017 66
Figure 25: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 67
Figure 26: GDP per Capita, 2015-2025 105
Figure 27: GDP Current US$ (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 106
Figure 28: Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 107
Figure 29: Chinese Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 108
Figure 30: LCU per US$, 2015-2024 109
Figure 31: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 110
Figure 32: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as a % of GDP, 2005-2012 111
Figure 33: Goods Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 112
Figure 34: Goods Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 113
Figure 35: Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 114
Figure 36: Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 115
Figure 37: Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2013 116
Figure 38: Net FDI as a % of GDP, 2005-2013 117
Figure 39: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 118


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