Construction in Latvia - Key Trends and Opportunities (H2 2021)

Construction in Latvia - Key Trends and Opportunities (H2 2021)

Summary

GlobalData now expects Latvias construction industry to decline by 1% in 2021, before it moderates to an annual average growth of 3.1% over the remainder of the forecast period (2022-2025); this compares to the previous forecasts of 1.6% growth for this year. The downward revision reflects the weaker-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, plus the risk of restrictions being imposed amid a large spike in infections. A sharp rise in construction prices also poses downside risks. Since April 2021, the country relaxed some restrictions, while travel and business disruptions continue but due to the rapid and uncontrolled spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19), the government is set to declare a new state of emergency in the country, with tighter restrictions in October 2021. As of early October 2021, COVID-19 infections were increasing in Latvia, with 1,035 new infections reported on average each day. Moreover, according to the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) of Latvia, construction costs rose by 26.1% year on year (YoY) in the first seven months of 2021, creating challenges for projects to be completed on budget. In the first half of 2021, construction value add declined by 4.6% YoY, falling from EUR638.9 million (US$728.1 million) in H1 2020 to EUR609.7 million (US$741.8 million) in H1 2021.

Over the remainder of the forecast period, the countrys construction industry is expected to be supported by European Union (EU) funds. The country is set to receive EUR1.8 billion (US$2.2 billion) in total, in the form of grants, under the NextGenerationEU investment fund. In September 2021, the European Commission disbursed EUR237 million (US$288.3 million) to the country in pre-financing, equivalent to 13% of the total financing committed to Latvia. The overall plan includes EUR158 million (US$192.2 million) on reforms and investments to modernize healthcare, strengthen the resilience of the healthcare sector and increase the availability of integrated and high-quality healthcare services. The government also signed a 10-year EUR500 million (US$569.8 million) COVID-19 mitigation loan from the Nordic Investment Bank in April 2020. Moreover, in October 2021, the Latvian government announced that the state budget program for emergencies will be expanded by EUR300 million (US$365 million) this year to overcome the recent challenges caused by COVID-19 in their respective sectors. The state budgets program for emergencies received EUR614.3 million (US$747.4 million) in Q2 2021.

Over the remainder of the forecast period, the industry is expected to be supported by investments on the infrastructure, residential and electricity infrastructure projects. The government is also supporting the Transport Ministry plan, which promises that 1,055km of high-speed highways will be completed in Latvia by 2040.

GlobalDatas Construction in Latvia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2025 report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into Latvias construction industry, including -
- Latvias construction industrys growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in Latvias construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Latvia. It provides -
- Historical (2016-2020) and forecast (2021-2025) valuations of the construction industry in Latvia, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to Buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalDatas standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.
- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.
- Understand the latest industry and market trends.
- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalDatas critical and actionable insight.
- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.
- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.

1. Construction Outlook
2. Construction Industry: At-a-Glance
3. Latest News and Developments
4. Project Analytics
5. Construction Market Data
6. Risk Profile
7. About GlobalData
7.1 Definitions
7.2 CRI Methodology

List Of Tables


Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data
Table 2: Latvia, Top Construction Projects by Value
Table 3: Latvia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Million)
Table 4: Latvia, Construction Output Value (Nominal, EUR Million)
Table 5: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions
Table 6: Risk Dimensions
Table 7: Ratings, Scores and Definitions

List Of Figures


Figure 1: Latvia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Million, 2017 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2016-2025
Figure 2: Latvia, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 3: Eastern Europe, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2020 and 2021
Figure 4: Latvia, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (US$ Million)
Figure 5: Latvia, Construction Value Add, In Constant 2015 Prices, in EUR Million, % Change YoY
Figure 6: Latvia, Volume of Construction Output, In Current Prices, % Change YoY
Figure 7: Latvia, Number of Permits Issued for Office Buildings, % Change YoY
Figure 8: Latvia, Number of Permits Issued for Hotel, Wholesale and Retail Buildings
Figure 9: Latvia, Non-Resident Visitor Arrivals, In Thousands, % Change YoY
Figure 10: Latvia, Value Add of Accommodation, Food Services, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Activities, in Constant 2015 Prices, in EUR Million, % Change YoY
Figure 11: Latvia, Manufacturing Value Add, Constant 2015 Prices, EUR Million, % Change YoY
Figure 12: Latvia, Volume of Construction Output of Roads and Railways, In Current Prices, % Change YoY
Figure 13: Latvia, Volume of Construction Output of Utility Projects for Electricity and Telecommunications, In Current Prices, % Change YoY
Figure 14: Latvia, Value Add of Real Estate Activities, In Constant 2015 Prices, in EUR Million, % Change YoY
Figure 15: Latvia, Number of Permits Approved for Residential Buildings, % Change YoY
Figure 16: Latvia, House Price Index (HPI), 2015=100, % Change YoY
Figure 17: Latvia, Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)
Figure 18: Latvia, Risk Summary
Figure 19: Latvia, Risk Regional Comparison

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