United Arab Emirates (UAE) 2022 - Opportunities and Challenges as the UAE Rebounds from COVID-19 and Delivers its Vision for the Next Fifty Years - MEED Insights

United Arab Emirates (UAE) 2022 - Opportunities and Challenges as the UAE Rebounds from COVID-19 and Delivers its Vision for the Next Fifty Years - MEED Insights

Summary

The UAE is one of the best-placed countries in the world to lead the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. While sectors such as aviation and tourism remain deeply impacted, other key areas such as Dubai real estate and Abu Dhabis oil and gas projects sector are already returning to growth.

The UAE boasts the highest sovereign credit rating of any country in the region and has made the most progress on Covid-19 vaccination. It led the world throughout the pandemic in terms of the scaling-up of its testing infrastructure.

In October, the country will be further boosted when it opens the gates on Expo 2020 Dubai, which is set to symbolise the worlds return to business in the wake of the pandemic. The IMF forecasts that the UAEs GDP will rebound to 3.1 per cent real growth in 2021, after crashing by -5.9 per cent in 2020. And it projects 2.6 per cent real GDP growth in 2022.

Outlook for projects

The main caveat to the optimistic outlook for the UAE is the current weakness in projects market activity, which fell off markedly in 2020 and has remained subdued despite high expectations at the start of the year.

The slow return to project spending is to be expected. As a hub for travel, trade and business, as well as being one of the worlds biggest exporters of oil and gas, the UAE was doubly exposed to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

The strain on government finances from the fall in oil revenues and tourism receipts, as well as the focus on supporting the healthcare sector, had a dramatic impact on the UAEs projects industry as spending was shut off to all but the most important projects.

As a result, the value of project contract awards slumped 37 per cent to about $19bn of awards in 2020, compared to $30.5bn in 2019, and an average annual spend of $34bn a year every year since 2011.

Companies can expect to see a recovery in projects spending in the UAE in the final quarter of 2021 and throughout 2022 as confidence returns. The UAE has a pipeline of more than $500bn of planned projects, and many of them are strategically vital if the country is to achieve the diversification, investment and job creation objectives of its national visions. They must go ahead.

New approach, new opportunities

The challenge is finance. While the UAE is well-positioned to increase borrowing, or to draw from its national reserves, the fiscal legacy of the pandemic will force the authorities to keep a tight rein on spending. This will accelerate the shift to alternative models such as public private partnership (PPP).

Spending will be spurred by a number of new oil and gas projects in Abu Dhabi led by the multi-billion-dollar Hail & Ghasha sour gas programme. However, construction sector expenditure is expected to remain muted in 2021 and even beyond until demand begins to pick up and oversupply dwindles.

UAE 2022

In this latest MEED Insight research report, MEED assesses the outlook for the UAE projects market in the wake of Covid-19 along with its history, policy, targets, sectors, key clients and contractors. The report highlights the opportunities for those working in the UAE and the drivers of investment plans.

Written by MEED, the Middle East market experts within the GlobalData Group, "UAE 2022" is a comprehensive guide for companies seeking to work in the UAE. Covering oil & gas, petrochemicals, power, construction, water, manufacturing and transport, the report will help you find opportunities, understand risks and set strategy in the UAE. As the UAE celebrates its 50th anniversary, UAE 2022 provides an update on the UAEs Vision 2021 and Centennial 2071 economic development plans.

Reasons to Buy

- Analysis of the opportunities for business and projects in UAE
- Comprehensive review of the impact of Covid-19 on the UAE
- Outlook for policy and investment
- Project opportunities with client and procurement details
- Investment drivers and client spending plans
- Understand risks and set strategy in the UAE market
- Complete assessment of the economic outlook for the UAE
- Updates on the Vision 2021 and Centennial 2071 development visions
- Understand the Expo 2020 Dubai legacy
- Analysis of all major business sectors in the UAE including: oil & gas; power & water; construction, petrochemicals, transport and renewables
- Detailed analysis of the markets in each of the UAEs seven emirates
Table of Contents
1. The UAE at 50
1.1 Historical background
1.2 The seven emirates
1.2.1 Abu Dhabi
1.2.2 Dubai
1.2.3 Sharjah
1.2.4 Ras al-Khaimah
1.2.5 Fujairah
1.2.6 Ajman and Umm al-Quwain
1.3 The next 50 years: Visions and plans
1.3.1 National vision
1.3.2 Abu Dhabi vision
1.3.3 Dubai vision
1.3.4 Northern emirates visions
1.4 Emerging industries
1.5 Expo 2020 Dubai
1.5.1 Expo 2020 legacy
2. Governance
2.1 Overview
2.2 The challenge of COVID-19
2.3 Domestic governance
2.4 Regional relations
2.5 International relations
2.6 Foreign military relations
2.7 Asian oil diplomacy
3. Economy
3.1 Overview
3.2 Banking and finance
3.3 Central Bank response to the COVID-19 crisis
3.4 Stock markets
3.5 Inflation
3.6 Balance of payments
3.7 Government finances
3.8 Oil and the economy
3.8.1 Oil production
3.8.2 Gas production
3.9 Diversification policies
3.10 Future growth
4. UAE projects market
4.1 Overview
4.2 UAE project trends
4.2.1 Housing
4.3 Cancelled/On hold projects
4.4 Future pipeline
4.4.1 Projects market by status and sector
4.4.2 Contract awards forecast 2021-23
4.4.3 Award pipeline
4.5 The UAEs biggest project clients
4.6 Leading contractors
5. PPP in the UAE
5.1 Overview
5.2 Dubai
5.2.1 Policy & regulations
5.2.2 Ongoing and planned projects
5.3 Abu Dhabi
5.3.1 Policy & regulations
5.3.2 Ongoing and planned projects
5.4 Northern Emirates
5.4.1 Ongoing and planned projects
6. UAE oil and gas
6.1 Overview
6.1.1 Project awards gain momentum in 2021
6.1.2 Project trends
6.1.3 Abu Dhabi upstream segment starts to rumble
6.1.4 Abu Dhabi pursues downstream growth plans
6.1.5 UAE reserves and production.
6.1.6 Sharjah pivots towards gas self-sufficiency
6.2 Abu Dhabi
6.2.1 Market structure
6.2.2 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc)
6.2.3 Adnoc IPO
6.2.4 Major Adnoc subsidiaries
6.2.5 Non-Adnoc producers
6.2.6 New upstream licensing round
6.2.7 Adnocs In-Country Value (ICV) programme
6.2.8 Adnocs pool of engineering service providers
6.3 Dubai and the northern emirates
6.4 Upstream oil
6.4.1 Onshore
6.4.2 Offshore
6.5 Gas
6.5.1 Onshore
6.5.2 Sour gas
6.5.3 Offshore gas and LNG
6.5.4 Adnoc LNG capacity expansion
6.5.5 Dolphin Energy
6.6 Refining
6.6.1 Adnoc Refining
6.6.2 Other refineries
6.6.3 Oil storage
6.7 Petrochemicals
6.7.1 Background.
6.7.2 Abu Dhabi Polymers Company (Borouge)
6.7.3 Abu Dhabi Chemicals Company (Chemaweyaat)
6.8 Fundraising and capex plan
6.9 UAE oil & gas projects market
6.9.1 Historic oil and gas projects market
6.9.2 Oil and gas projects outlook
6.10 Leading oil & gas contractors in the UAE
7. UAE industrial sector
7.1 Overview
7.1.1 Industrial project trends
7.1.2 Impact of Covid-19
7.2 Aluminium
7.2.1 Alumina refinery
7.2.2 Downstream
7.3 Steel
7.3.1 Emirates Steel
7.3.2 Other producers
7.4 Cement
7.5 Industrial projects market
7.5.1 Projects pipeline
7.6 Leading industrial projects contractors and clients
8. Power
8.1 Market overview
8.1.1 Impact of Covid-19 on the UAE power sector
8.1.2 Ewec Statement of Future Capacity Requirements, 2021-27
8.1.3 UAE Energy Strategy 2050
8.1.4 Project awards
8.2 Industry structure
8.2.1 Government
8.2.2 Private power
8.2.3 Sector reform
8.3 Supply and demand trends
8.3.1 Power consumption
8.3.2 Demand forecast
8.3.3 Installed generation capacity and annual power generation
8.4 Power generation projects
8.4.1 Power generation projects
8.4.2 Fuel and alternative energy
8.4.3 Nuclear power
8.5 Transmission & distribution network
8.5.1 Transmission projects
8.6 International electrical interconnection
8.6.1 Emirates National Grid (ENG)
8.7 Leading contractors
8.8 Abu Dhabi
8.8.1 Market overview
8.8.2 Industry structure
8.8.3 Supply and demand
8.8.4 Major power generation projects
8.8.5 Transmission and distribution network
8.8.6 Leading contractors
8.9 Dubai
8.9.1 Market overview
8.9.2 Industry structure
8.9.3 Supply and demand
8.9.4 Major power generation projects
8.9.5 Transmission and distribution network
8.9.6 Leading contractors
8.10 Northern Emirates
8.10.1 Market overview
8.10.2 Industry structure
8.10.3 Supply and demand trends.
8.10.4 Power generation projects
8.10.5 Transmission and distribution network
8.10.6 Leading contractors
9. Renewables
9.1 Market overview
9.1.1 UAE energy diversification
9.1.2 Renewables integration challenges
9.1.3 Waste-to-energy emerges
9.1.4 Renewable energy project contract awards
9.2 Market structure
9.3 Renewable capacity and generation
9.3.1 Alternative fuel and capacity.
9.4 Renewable energy policy
9.4.1 Other policies
9.5 Abu Dhabi
9.5.1 Overview
9.5.2 Major renewable energy projects
9.5.3 Top renewable power sector contractors
9.6 Dubai
9.6.1 Overview
9.6.2 Solar IPP Programme
9.6.3 Other projects
9.6.4 Renewable energy policy
9.6.5 Top renewable power sector contractors
9.7 Northern Emirates
9.7.1 Overview
9.7.2 Etihad WE (Formerly Fewa)
9.7.3 Sewa
9.7.4 Top renewable power sector contractors
10. Water and desalination
10.1 Market overview
10.2 UAE Water market structure
10.3 Water demand
10.4 Water supply
10.5 Desalination projects
10.6 Leading water contractors
10.7 Leading water clients
11. Wastewater
11.1 Market overview
11.2 Market structure
11.3 Wastewater treatment
11.4 Wastewater projects
11.5 Leading wastewater contractors
11.6 Leading wastewater clients
12. Construction
12.1 Market overview
12.1.1 Impact of Covid-19
12.1.2 Federal Budget
12.1.3 Construction project trends.
12.1.4 Project pipeline
13.1.5 Leading construction clients and contractors
12.2 Dubai
12.2.1 Dubai construction shows signs of recovery in 2021
12.2.2 Project trends and pipelines
12.2.3 Dubai Expo 2021
12.2.4 Dubai budget 2021
12.2.5 Sector Analysis
12.2.6 Dubais leading construction clients and contractors
12.3 Abu Dhabi
12.3.1 Market overview
12.3.2 Project trends and pipeline
12.3.3 UAE budget 2021
12.3.4 Sector analysis
12.3.5 Leading clients and contractors
12.4 Northern Emirates
12.4.1 Project trends and pipeline
12.4.2 Ajman
12.4.3 Fujairah
12.4.4 Ras Al-Khaimah
12.4.5 Sharjah
12.4.6 Umm Al-Quwain
12.4.7 Leading northern emirates construction clients and contractors
13. UAE transport and logistics
13.1.1 Market overview
13.1.2 Project trends
13.1.3 Project pipeline
13.1.4 Leading clients and contractors
13.2 Dubai
13.2.1 Project trends and pipeline
13.2.2 Sector Analysis
13.2.3 Dubai leading transport project clients
13.2.4 Dubai leading transport contractors
13.3 Abu Dhabi
13.3.1 Project trends and pipeline
13.3.2 Sector analysis
13.3.3 Abu Dhabi leading clients
13.3.4 Abu Dhabi leading contractors
13.4 Northern Emirates
13.4.1 Project trends and pipeline
13.4.2 Ajman
13.4.3 Fujairah
13.4.4 Ras Al-Khaimah
13.4.5 Sharjah
13.4.6 Umm Al-Quwain
13.4.7 Northern Emirates leading clients
13.4.8 Northern Emirates leading contractors
Disclaimer

List Of Tables

List of Tables
Table 1: The seven emirates of the UAE
Table 2: The UAE Council of Ministers
Table 3: UAE key economic indicators
Table 4: Key banking indicators, 2018-20 (AEDbn)
Table 5: Banking soundness indicators, 2018-20
Table 6: UAE consolidated government finances (AEDbn), 2017Q3 2020
Table 7: Biggest contracts awarded in 2020-21*
Table 8: Largest projects due for award in 2021-22
Table 9: PPP Projects under execution
Table 10: Upcoming projects in Dubai
Table 11: Major ongoing PPP projects
Table 12: Upcoming projects in Abu Dhabi
Table 13: PPP Projects underway in Northern Emirates
Table 14: Planned projects in the UAE Northern Emirates
Table 15: Top 10 countries by oil and gas reserves at the end of 2020
Table 16: Major Adnoc oil and gas projects.
Table 17: Major oil and gas operating companies
Table 18: Abu Dhabi oil producers, 2020.
Table 19: UAE refineries by capacity, 2019
Table 20: Main construction packages on Borouge 3
Table 21: Selected UAE oil and gas projects under execution
Table 22: Selected unawarded hydrocarbon projects in the bidding stages in the UAE
Table 23: Selected unawarded hydrocarbons projects in the study stages in the UAE.
Table 24: UAEs top industrial contracts awarded during January-June 2021
Table 25: Selected UAE industrial projects awarded and completed since 2016
Table 26: UAEs largest industrial contract awards in 2020
Table 27: Aluminium smelters in the UAE.
Table 28: Selected steel production plants in the UAE
Table 29: GCC countries ranking by installed cement capacity, 2020
Table 30: UAE cement producers.
Table 31: UAE cement plants location
Table 32: Selected UAE industrial projects under execution by value ($m)
Table 33: Major planned industry contract awards scheduled for 2021-22
Table 34: UAE power sector key facts, 2020
Table 35: UAE, Power generation projects (excluding renewables) under construction ($m)
Table 36: UAE, Upcoming power generation projects (excluding renewables) ($m)
Table 37: UAE, Top T&D projects under construction ($m)
Table 38: UAE, Top planned T&D projects ($m)
Table 39: UAE, Leading power contractors by value ($m)
Table 40: Abu Dhabi power sector key facts, 2020
Table 41: Abu Dhabi selected major power plant contract awards, 20112020
Table 42: Abu Dhabi, Growth of principal demand drivers (GW)
Table 43: Abu Dhabi leading contractors by value ($m)
Table 44: Dubai power sector key facts, 2020
Table 45: Selected major EPC power projects, 20052020
Table 46: Dubai thermal power plants
Table 47: Dubai upcoming power generation projects
Table 48: Dubai key T&D infrastructure, 20182020
Table 49: Dubai, Top T&D projects under execution ($m)
Table 50: Dubai, planned and unawarded T&D projects ($m)
Table 51: Dubai leading contractors by value ($m)
Table 52: Etihad WE installed capacity
Table 53: Sewa installed and available generating capacity, 2019 (MW)
Table 54: Northern Emirates, T&D projects under construction ($m)
Table 55: Northern Emirates, planned T&D projects ($m)
Table 56: Northern Emirates leading contractors by value ($m)
Table 57: UAE power and renewables sector key facts, 2020.
Table 58: Abu Dhabi power and renewables sector key facts
Table 59: Abu Dhabi major renewable power generation projects, planned and underway by value ($m)
Table 60: Abu Dhabi leading contractors by value ($m)
Table 61: Dubai power and renewables sector key facts
Table 62: Dubai renewable power generation projects, planned and underway by value ($m)
Table 63: Dubai leading contractors by value ($m)
Table 64: Northern Emirates renewable power generation projects, planned and underway by value ($m)
Table 65: Northern Emirates leading contractors by value ($m)
Table 66: UAE water sector key facts
Table 67: Dubai land used for agriculture (hectares)
Table 68: Recent underway and planned desalination projects by EWE, 2018-2021
Table 69: UAEs water desalination contracts awarded during January-June 2021
Table 70: Ongoing water desalination projects, UAE
Table 71: UAE upcoming private water desalination project by value
Table 72: UAE upcoming water desalination projects by value
Table 73: Major planned water desalination contract awards scheduled for 2021-22
Table 74: Dubai volume of wastewater discharge (m3) by source, 2019
Table 75: Design hydraulic flow, actual hydraulic flow (collected wastewater), and volume of produced treated wastewater by emirate,
2017-2019 (m3)
Table 76: Abu Dhabi, quantity of wastewater inflow by region (million cubic metres)
Table 77: Abu Dhabi, quantity of treated wastewater by region (million cubic metres)
Table 78: Abu Dhabi, quantity of treated wastewater reuse by region (million cubic metres)
Table 79: Abu Dhabi, Conventional Wastewater Treatment Plants Capacity by Region (mcm)
Table 80: Abu Dhabi, Non-Conventional Wastewater Treatment Plants Capacity by Region (mcm)
Table 81: Mean annual concentration of main pollutants in wastewater before and after treatment pollutant-2018
Table 82: Abu Dhabi existing sewage treatment plants in operation.
Table 83: ADSSCs capital spending programme 20152019 (AED 000)
Table 84: ADSSC capital spending programme (AED 000), 2016-2018
Table 85: Capital spending on treatment capacity (AED 000), 2016-2017

List Of Figures

List of Figures
Figure 1: UAE oil and non-oil GDP, 20102020 (%)
Figure 2: GDP growth, 2010-23
Figure 3: Remittances from the UAE (AEDbn), 2018-20
Figure 4: UAE inflation, 20102022 (%)
Figure 5: UAE imports and exports ($bn), 20112020
Figure 6: Annual change in trade in goods and services (%), 20112020
Figure 7: UAE current account balance, 20112020
Figure 8: General government gross debt, 2000-2021
Figure 9: UAE oil and natural gas production, 1980-2020
Figure 10: UAE oil production, 2009-20 (m b/d).
Figure 11: GCC contract awards, 20112021 H1* ($m).
Figure 12: UAE contract awards, 20112021 H1* ($m).
Figure 13: Contract awards by sector, 201820 ($m).
Figure 14: UAE contract awards by sector, 20112021 H1* ($m) .
Figure 15: UAE contract awards by sector, 20112021 H1* ($m) .
Figure 16: Contract awards by sector, 2020 H12021 H1 ($m) .
Figure 17: UAE contract awards by emirate, 20112021 H1* ($m)
Figure 18: Dubai contract awards by sector, 20112021* ($m) .
Figure 19: Abu Dhabi contract awards by sector, 20112021 H1* ($m)
Figure 20: Value of contract awards by Dubai vs Abu Dhabi, 20112021 H1* ($m)
Figure 21: UAE projects cancelled and on hold by sector (%) .
Figure 22: Unawarded projects market by status (%).
Figure 23: Unawarded projects by status and sector ($m)
Figure 24: UAE contracts award forecast 2021-23 ($m)
Figure 25: Most active clients by work under execution ($bn) .
Figure 26: Most active contractors by work under execution ($bn)
Figure 27: UAE planned PPP projects by value and sector (%) .
Figure 28: PPP projects by status as of July 2021 ($m).
Figure 29: Dubai and Abu Dhabi PPP Policies and Frameworks Timeline.
Figure 30: PPP Projects Approval process in Dubai
Figure 31: UAE contract awards by sub-sector ($m), 20152021 H1*
Figure 32: UAE oil and gas sector contracts awarded and completed ($bn), 20112020
Figure 33: Sharjah licensing concession locations.
Figure 34: Structure of Abu Dhabis oil and gas industry
Figure 35: Abu Dhabi second round of oil and gas exploration blocks
Figure 36: UAE crude production - based on direct communications, 20112020 (million b/d).
Figure 37: Abu Dhabi oil production capacity by field, 2020 (b/d)
Figure 38: Blocks covered by Korea/Adnoc concession agreement
Figure 39: UAE gas production and consumption, 20112020 (billion cubic feet)
Figure 40: Adnoc Gas Processings gas processing plants (t/d) .
Figure 41: UAE LNG export and import capacity (million t/y), 20112020
Figure 42: Dolphin gas pipeline network
Figure 43: UAE Petrochemicals production capacity (Mtpa) and market share (%), 20102018
Figure 44: Borouge expansions (thousand t/y)
Figure 45: UAE hydrocarbons awards by year ($m), 20112021 H1*
Figure 46: UAE hydrocarbons awards by year and sector ($m), 20112021 H1* .
Figure 47: UAE biggest oil and gas contractors ($m)
Figure 48: The UAE industrial project contract awards, 2011-2021 H1* ($m)
Figure 49: The UAE industrial project contract awards by subsector, 2011-2021 H1* ($m).
Figure 50: The UAE aluminium project contract awards, 2011-2021 H1* ($m) .
Figure 51: Emirates Steel Expansion Programme.
Figure 52: The UAE steel project contract awards, 2011-2021 H1* ($m)
Figure 53: The UAE cement project contract awards, 2011-2021 H1* ($m) .
Figure 54: Industrial projects planned but unawarded by stage ($m).
Figure 55: Industrial projects planned but unawarded by segment (%).
Figure 56: Top active Industrial contractors by value of contracts under construction ($m)
Figure 57: Top active Industrial clients by value of contracts under construction ($m)
Figure 58: UAE, changes in the demand growth outlook since the 2019 statement (MW).
Figure 59: UAE, power sector (excluding renewables) contract awards ($m), 2011-2021 H1*
Figure 60: UAE, annual power consumption (GWh), 2015-2030
Figure 61: UAE, demand growth outlook (MW), 2021-2027 .
Figure 62: UAE, cumulative installed capacity (excluding renewables), MW, 2015-2030.
Figure 63: UAE, annual power generation (excluding renewables), GWh, 2015-2030.
Figure 64: Peak power demand and installed capacity (MW), 20112020
Figure 65: Peak power demand growth (percentage), 20112020.
Figure 66: Abu Dhabi electricity exports at peak time (MW), 2011-2020.
Figure 67: Abu Dhabi power consumption by sector, 2019 (Per cent)
Figure 68: Dubai peak power demand and installed capacity, 20112020
Figure 69: Etihad WEs peak power imports from Abu Dhabi (MW), 20112020
Figure 70: Sewa peak power demand growth, 2009-2019 (per cent)
Figure 71: Sewa peak power demand, 2011-2019 (MW)
Figure 72: Sewas peak power imports from Abu Dhabi, 20112020 (MW)
Figure 73: UAE, Renewable energy contract awards ($m), 2011-2021 H1* .
Figure 74: UAE installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030 .
Figure 75: UAE annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030
Figure 76: UAE, clean energy targets, 2050.
Figure 77: Planned renewables projects value by emirate ($m)
Figure 78: Water production plants in UAE
Figure 79: Changes in water demand (MIGD).
Figure 80: Dubai annual desalinated water peak demand (MIGD).
Figure 81: UAE water demand by sector
Figure 82: Abu Dhabi water demand by sector (%), 2019
Figure 83: Dubai water demand by sector (million gallons), 20162020
Figure 84: Dubai number of water consumers by type, 20162020
Figure 85: UAE water consumption by authority (million cm), 2018
Figure 86: UAE water supply by source (%), 2017.
Figure 87: Change in Abu Dhabis groundwater level, 20052016.
Figure 88: Abu Dhabi peak desalinated water supply by region, 2019 (%)
Figure 89: Peak water demand (MIGD), 20132020
Figure 90: SEWAs installed desalination capacity, 2019
Figure 91: Produced water quantities in million gallons (Type of production wise)
Figure 92: Produced Water Quantities in Emirate of Sharjah (production site wise), Q1 2020 (%)
Figure 93: Leading contractors in the UAE water desalination sector ($m).
Figure 94: Leading clients in the UAE water desalination sector ($m)
Figure 95: Wastewater legal framework in the emirate of Abu Dhabi.
Figure 96: Main wastewater treatment facilities in Abu Dhabi
Figure 97: Ajman Sewerage shareholding structure (%)
Figure 98: Volume of annual wastewater inflow by emirate (m3/year), 2019

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