Construction in Belarus - Key Trends and Opportunities (H2 2021)

Construction in Belarus - Key Trends and Opportunities (H2 2021)

Summary

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and the subsequent slowdown in economic activity resulted in the Belarusian construction sector contracting by 0.1% in real terms in 2020, following growth of 3.1% in 2019 and 4.2% in 2018. To support the economy and achieve the governments sustainable growth target of 4-5% annually in 2021-2022, in late 2020, the government announced plans for a capital investment worth BRY34 billion (US$15.1 billion) in 2021. Of the total, BRY10 billion (US$4.4 billion) will be invested in the construction of housing, social facilities and infrastructure.

The economy started showing signs of recovery, following the lifting of lockdown measures and the governments expansionary policy measures in the second half of 2020; however, in January 2021, the government reintroduced some travel restriction measures across the country, although construction sites and factories were exempted. The re-emergence of the outbreak and the resultant measures in the first half of 2021 have led to a downward revision in outlook for the construction industry, which is now expected to shrink by 7.3%.

In 2022, the industry is forecasted to grow by 4.5%, and then expand by an annual average rate of 4.5% over the remainder of the forecast period, supported by government investments in infrastructure, residential and renewable energy projects. The industrys output is also expected to be supported by the governments plans to invest in the countrys infrastructure under the National Infrastructure Plan for 2016-2030. The plan entails an investment of BRY18.6 billion (US$8.3 billion) in housing and utilities infrastructure, BRY18 billion (US$8 billion) in transport infrastructure and BRY2.9 billion (US$1.3 billion) in energy infrastructure over the next four years. The industry output is also expected to be supported by foreign investment in the construction sector. According to the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (Belstat), the country received foreign investment worth BRY7.3 billion (US$3 billion) in the first three months of 2021, of which BRY217.6 million (US$89.2 million) was invested in the construction sector and BRY102.9 million (US$42.2 million) was in real estate activities.

Apart from the resurgence of COVID-19 outbreaks, another major downside risk for the countrys construction industry is the rising tension between EU and Belarus. In the wake of the crackdown on Belarusian protestors, the EU imposed sanctions on Belarus in June 2021. Furthermore, the incident of the forced landing of a Ryanair flight for the detention of journalists Raman Pratasevich and Sofia Sapega in Minsk on 23rd May, 2021, intensified tensions between EU and Belarus. Consequently, in June 2021, the EU imposed fresh sanctions by introducing a ban on the use of EU airspace and on access to EU airports by Belarusian carriers of all kinds. This was preceded by EU sanctions on Belarusian potash in May 2021, which is a major part of the countrys export, with a potassium content of less than 40% or more than 62% in the dry product. Furthermore, as the current sanctions are not affecting Alexander Lukashenka, the EU is planning to impose further sanctions on oil, tobacco and other potash products.

This report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Belarusian construction industry, including -
- The Belarusian construction industrys growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Belarusian construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Belarus. It provides -
- Historical (2016-2020) and forecast (2021-2025) valuations of the construction industry in Belarus, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to Buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalDatas standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.
- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.
- Understand the latest industry and market trends.
- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalDatas critical and actionable insight.
- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.
- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.
Table of Contents
1. Construction Outlook
2. Construction Industry: At-a-Glance
3. Latest News and Developments
4. Project Analytics
5. Construction Market Data
6. Risk Profile
7. About GlobalData
7.1 Definitions
7.2 CRI Methodology

List Of Tables

List of Tables
Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data
Table 2: Belarus, Top Construction Projects by Value
Table 3: Belarus, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Million)
Table 4: Belarus, Construction Output Value (Nominal, BYR Million)
Table 5: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions
Table 6: Risk Dimensions
Table 7: Ratings, Scores and Definitions

List Of Figures

List of Figures
Figure 1: Belarus, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Million, 2017 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2016-2025
Figure 2: Belarus, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025
Figure 3: Eastern Europe, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2020 and 2021
Figure 4: Belarus, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (US$ Million)
Figure 5: Belarus, Construction Value Add (% Change YoY, at Constant Prices)
Figure 6: Belarus, Fixed Capital Investment (Accumulated % Change, Y-o-Y)
Figure 7: Belarus, Total Floor Space of Housing Commissioning (Thousand m2)
Figure 8: Belarus, Construction Contract Activity (as % of Corresponding Period of Previous Year, at Constant Prices)
Figure 9: Belarus, Total Commodities Exports (US$ Million)
Figure 10: Belarus, Total Credit Issued for the Construction (BRY, Million)
Figure 11: Belarus, Housing Price Index Month-on-Month Growth rate
Figure 12: Belarus, Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)
Figure 13: Belarus, Risk Summary
Figure 14: Belarus, Risk Regional Comparison

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