Global Construction Outlook to 2023 - Q2 2019 Update

Global Construction Outlook to 2023 - Q2 2019 Update



GlobalData has marginally revised downwards its forecast for global construction output growth in 2019 to 3.3%, but this still marks a slight improvement on the 2018 performance. The improvement is entirely owing to an acceleration in growth in construction activity in emerging markets, most notably in China, where the authorities are stepping up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown. However, growth in China will drop back from 2021 onwards, and this will contribute to an easing in construction growth in emerging markets.

The expansion in advanced economies will be fairly sluggish in 2019, with growth in North America slowing to 1.2%, and in Western Europe there will be a deceleration to 2.2%. However, over the remainder of the forecast period, there will be scope for slightly faster growth in the advanced economies, with monetary policy remaining accommodative.

The pace of construction growth will ease in South and South-East Asia in 2019 following the sharp upturn in 2018, but it will be the fastest growing region in 2019-2023, with average annual growth of 6.4%. There will be sustained recoveries in construction output in the Middle East and Africa, as well as in Latin America. However, weakness in Turkey will pull down the pace of regional expansion in Eastern Europe.

Risks to the overall forecast stem primarily from a possible escalation in the trade war between the US and China, which would ultimately impact on investment and constrain global economic growth. There is also a risk that China could overstep its efforts to support the economy, resulting in an unmanageable debt crisis, which would disrupt investment trends globally, most notably via the impact on demand in commodities markets. There are also other major emerging markets facing domestic political and economic stresses that could erupt into full-blown crises, creating a risk of contagion across these markets.

This report provides a detailed analysis of the prospects for the global construction industry up to 2023.

Key Highlights

- The pace of growth in North Americas construction industry is expected to ease over the forecast period (2019-2023) primarily reflecting increasing trade tensions and lower global economic growth. There will be a recovery in the pace of growth from 2021 as ongoing investments in infrastructure development will provide support for the regions construction industry. Construction activity in Latin America will continue to recover in 2019, with growth expected to pick up to 1.2% and then averaging 3.0% in 2020-2023. However, growth in the regions construction industry will continue to be subject to downside risks. Argentinas construction output is in decline, and the recoveries in Brazil and Mexico will remain fragile.
- The Asia-Pacific region will continue to account for the largest share of the global construction industry, given that it includes the large markets of China, Japan and India. The pace of growth over the forecast period will average 4.4%, which is down from the 5.1% in the past five years. Although there will be an acceleration in growth in China in 2019, the general trend is one of slowing growth given the need for Chinas government to try to curb excessive investment and avoid a disorderly debt crisis. Moreover, reflecting recent years of overinvestment in residential construction and the resulting glut of new residential properties, building construction output growth will also decelerate. There will also be weakness in South Korea, which is experiencing a sharp contraction in construction works. In India, positive developments in economic conditions, improvement in investor confidence and investments in transport infrastructure, energy and housing projects have helped the construction industry regain growth momentum. The emerging markets of South-East Asia will invest heavily in new infrastructure projects, supported by private investment. Construction output in Australia has been volatile owing to major shifts in the oil and gas sector, but excluding oil and gas, the construction industry will be supported by solid growth in infrastructure and non-residential buildings.
- Construction activity growth slowed across Western Europe in 2018, and output will expand by 2.2% a year on average in 2019-2023, which is a marginal slowdown compared to the pace recorded in 2014-2018, of 2.5%. The expansion in the UK is subject to major downside risks in the face of uncertainty relating to the outcome of its exit from the EU. However, in Germany, ongoing efforts by the government to upgrade the countrys transport infrastructure on the back of the growing population and growth in the manufacturing, retail and tourism sectors are expected to add momentum to industry growth, Monetary policy within the EU will remain accommodating for much of the forecast period, given subdued inflationary pressures and moderate levels of economic growth.
- Construction activity across Eastern Europe expanded at a rapid pace in 2018, primarily reflecting recovery in a number of markets, as EU funding was restarted after a hold-up in 2016. There will be a return to more normal rates of growth from 2019, but construction in Turkey is set to suffer from the effects of instability in the economy. Despite weakness in Russias economy, construction is reported to have grown sharply in 2018, and investment in road and rail projects in addition to a recovery in the oil and gas sector will support a recovery in Russias construction output.
- Growth in the Middle East and Africa region as a whole will improve markedly in the forecast period, averaging 5.5% a year, compared to 2.2% in 2014-2018. Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have suffered from weakness in oil prices in recent years, as government revenues have been greatly reduced. Assuming oil prices stay relatively high, large-scale investment in infrastructure projects - mostly related to transport - will be a key driving force behind the growth in the region. The pace of growth in sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly strong, averaging 6.1% a year in 2019-2023. There will be a steady acceleration in construction activity in Nigeria, supported by government efforts to revitalize the economy by focusing on developing the countrys infrastructure. Ethiopia will be Africas star performer, with its construction industry continuing to improve in line with the countrys economic expansion.

Scope

- An overview of the outlook for the global construction industry to 2023
- Analysis of the outlook for the construction industry in major global regions: North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, South and South-East Asia, North-East Asia, Australasia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
- A comprehensive benchmarking of 92 leading construction markets according to construction market value and growth
- Analysis of the latest data on construction output trends in key markets.

Reasons to buy

- Evaluate regional construction trends from insight on output values and forecast data to 2023. Identify the fastest growers to enable assessment and targeting of commercial opportunities in the markets best suited to strategic focus.
- Identify the drivers in the global construction market and consider growth in emerging and developed economies. Formulate plans on where and how to engage with the market while minimizing any negative impact on revenues.

1. GLOBAL OUTLOOK
2. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: US AND CANADA
2.1. Overview
2.2. Key Updates
3. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: LATIN AMERICA
3.1. Overview
3.2. Key Updates
4. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: WESTERN EUROPE
4.1. Overview
4.2. Key Updates
5. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
5.1. Overview
5.2. Key Updates
6. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST ASIA
6.1. Overview
6.2. Key Updates
7. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: AUSTRALASIA
7.1. Overview
7.2. Key Updates
8. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: NORTH-EAST ASIA
8.1. Overview
8.2. Key Updates
9. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
9.1. Overview
9.2. Key Updates
10. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
10.1. Overview
10.2. Key Updates
11. ABOUT GLOBALDATA
11.1. GlobalData at a Glance
11.2. GlobalData Construction
11.3. Disclaimer
11.4. Contact Us

List Of Tables


Table 1: Global Construction Output Growth (Real, % change), 2018-2023
Table 2: US and Canada, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 3: Latin America, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 4: Western Europe, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 5: Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 6: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 7: North-East Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 8: Australasia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 9: Middle East and North Africa, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 10: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2014-2023
Table 11: US and Canada, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 12: Latin America, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 13: Western Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 14: Eastern Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 15: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 16: Australasia, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 17: North-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 18: Middle East and North Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 19: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)

List Of Figures


Figure 1: Global Construction Output Growth, Advanced Economies vs Emerging Markets (Real, % change), 2014-2023
Figure 2: Global Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 and 2019-2023
Figure 3: Global Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 4: Global Construction Output Value (Real, 2017 US$ billion), 2018 and 2023
Figure 5: US and Canada, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 6: US and Canada, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 7: US and Canada, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 8: US, Value of Construction Put in Place Seasonally Adjusted (US$ million)
Figure 9: Canada, Construction value-add (% change year on year, constant prices)
Figure 10: Latin America, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 11: Latin America, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 12: Latin America, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 13: Argentina, Synthetic Indicator of Construction Activity
Figure 14: Brazil, Construction value-add (BRL million, chained at 1995 prices)
Figure 15: Mexico , Construction value-add (constant 2013 prices, % change, year on year)
Figure 16: Colombia, Construction value-add (COP, chained at 2015 prices, % change, year on year)
Figure 17: Chile, Construction value-add (CLP billion, chained at 2013 prices)
Figure 18: Peru, Construction value-add (PEN million, constant 2007 prices)
Figure 19: Western Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 20: Western Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 21: Western Europe, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 22: Germany, Construction Production Index (% change, year on year)
Figure 23: UK, Construction Output (% change, year on year)
Figure 24: Austria, Construction Production Index (% change, year on year)
Figure 25: Sweden, Construction Production Index (% change, year on year)
Figure 26: Eastern Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 27: Eastern Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 28: Eastern Europe, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 29: Poland, Construction Production Index (% change, year on year)
Figure 30: Turkey, Construction Value-Add (Constant Prices)
Figure 31: Hungary, Construction Production Index (% change, year on year)
Figure 32: Czech Republic, Construction Production Index (% change, year on year)
Figure 33: Russia, Construction Value-Add (% change, year on year)
Figure 34: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 35: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 36: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 37: India, Construction Value-Add (INR Billion, Constant Prices)
Figure 38: Singapore, Construction Value-Add (Constant Prices)
Figure 39: Thailand, Construction Value-Add (Constant Prices)
Figure 40: Indonesia, Construction Value-Add (Constant Prices)
Figure 41: The Philippines, Construction Value-Add (PHP Billion, Constant Prices)
Figure 42: Australasia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 43: Australasia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 44: Australasia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 45:Australia, Construction Work Done (Chained volume measure, AUD million)
Figure 46:Australia, Dwelling Units Approvals (Number of units)
Figure 47:New Zealand, Building Work Put in Place (Chained volume measure, NZD million)
Figure 48: North-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 49: North-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 50: North-East Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 51: South Korea, Construction Value-Add (% change, year on year)
Figure 52: Japan, Construction Contracts, Order Values (JPY trillion, 3-month moving average)
Figure 53: China, Construction Value-Add (Constant prices)
Figure 54: Middle East and North Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 55:Middle East and North Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 56: Middle East and Africa, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 57: Israel - Construction Value-Add (NIS million, Constant Prices)
Figure 58: Bahrain, Construction Value-Add (BHD million, Constant Prices)
Figure 59: Egypt, Construction Value-Add (EGP million, Constant Prices)
Figure 60: Qatar, Construction Value-Add (QAR million, Constant Prices)
Figure 61: Tunisia, Construction Value-Add (TND million, Constant Prices)
Figure 62: Algeria, Construction Value-Add (DZD million, Current Prices)
Figure 63: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 64: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2019-2023
Figure 65: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 66: Nigeria, Construction Value-Add (NGN million, Constant Prices)
Figure 67: South Africa, Construction Value-Add (ZAR million, Constant Prices Seasonally Adjusted)
Figure 68: Cameroon, Construction Value-Add (CFA billion, Constant Prices)
Figure 69: Ghana, Construction Value Add (GHS million, Constant Prices)
Figure 70: Mozambique, Construction Value-Add (MZN million, Constant Prices)
Figure 71: Zambia, Construction Value-Add (ZMK million, Constant Prices

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