US inverted yield curve: Economic recession indicator suggests difficult times ahead
DESCRIPTION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
RELATED REPORTS
SAMPLE REQUEST
REVIEWS
DESCRIPTION
US inverted yield curve: Economic recession indicator suggests difficult times ahead
Summary
The inverted yield curve is feared by many investors in the world as many claim that is a signal that a recession in the economy will soon take place. On the other hand, many argue that is false advertisement as it is only indicating the movements of long-term bond yields against short-term bond yields. However, that as its own is a big indicator of something is happening in the economy. The inverted yield curve and the term spread, the different between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates have been indicators of slowdowns in the US economy over 60 years now, and in all of the cases except one, they signaled that recession was coming.
Key Highlights
- The yield curve is an indicator of bond investors behavior. Meaning that demand for short-term bonds will have a different impact on the yield curve than demand for long-term bonds.
- The most important factors are herding and loss aversion effect, which both are a physiological phenomenon which takes place in the human mind and affects in a great extent the decision-making process of an investor.
- Individual investors are initiators of the inverted yield curve. Meaning that their behavior and their actions dictate which movement the yield curve will take.
Scope
- Examines if the inverted yield curve can signal a recession
Reasons to buy
- Does the inverted yield curve signals a recession? - What is the negative term spread? - Is the US economy currently under threat?
Summary
The inverted yield curve is feared by many investors in the world as many claim that is a signal that a recession in the economy will soon take place. On the other hand, many argue that is false advertisement as it is only indicating the movements of long-term bond yields against short-term bond yields. However, that as its own is a big indicator of something is happening in the economy. The inverted yield curve and the term spread, the different between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates have been indicators of slowdowns in the US economy over 60 years now, and in all of the cases except one, they signaled that recession was coming.
Key Highlights
- The yield curve is an indicator of bond investors behavior. Meaning that demand for short-term bonds will have a different impact on the yield curve than demand for long-term bonds.
- The most important factors are herding and loss aversion effect, which both are a physiological phenomenon which takes place in the human mind and affects in a great extent the decision-making process of an investor.
- Individual investors are initiators of the inverted yield curve. Meaning that their behavior and their actions dictate which movement the yield curve will take.
Scope
- Examines if the inverted yield curve can signal a recession
Reasons to buy
- Does the inverted yield curve signals a recession? - What is the negative term spread? - Is the US economy currently under threat?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. OVERVIEW
1.1. Catalyst
1.2. Summary
2. THE US YIELD CURVE AS AN EFFECTIVE RECESSION INDICATOR
2.1. The yield curve displays the difference between older and younger bonds
2.2. The yield curve is an expression of bond investors behavior
3. REAL LIFE IMPLICATIONS OF AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE
3.1. Pessimistic behavior alongside with herding and fear of missing out effect invert the yield curve
3.2. An inverted yield curve has a big impact on fixed-income investors, consumers and financial institutions
4. HISTORICAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN INVERTED YIELD CURVES SIGNALS RECESSION
4.1. Negative term spread is the real indicator of a recession
4.2. The US economy is currently under threat
5. APPENDIX
5.1. Abbreviations and acronyms
5.2. Sources
5.3. Further reading
6. ASK THE ANALYST
7. ABOUT MARKETLINE
List Of Figures
Figure 1: Yield curve with an upward trend
Figure 2: Yield curve with an downward trend or inverted yield curve
Figure 3: Herding effect in the stock market
Figure 4: The term spread and recessions
RELATED REPORTS
Global Business Process Management (BPM) Market 2023-2029
Business Process Management (BPM) refers to the systematic approach of identifying, analyzing, optimizing, and automating business processes for improved performance and efficiency. It involves using data analytics, collaboration tools, and
USD 2350 View ReportGlobal Marketing Automation Software Market 2022 - Industry Briefing
The global marketing automation software market size is projected to grow by USD 7 billion from 2022 to 2028, registering a CAGR of 16 percent.This industry report offers market estimates
USD 700 View ReportSAMPLE REQUEST
Fill The Form For Sample Request
REVIEWS