Future of the Egyptian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Future of the Egyptian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022

Summary

The Future of the Egyptian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Egyptian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- The Egyptian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Egyptian defense industry during 2018-2022, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Egyptian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Egyptian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Scope

- Egypt’s total defense expenditure valued US$4.0 billion in 2017 and is anticipated to post a forecast-period CAGR of 6.58%, to reach US$5.6 billion in 2022. The country has undergone a period of political turmoil since January 2011 which began with the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak following 30 years of autocratic rule and ended in the nation’s first democratic elections which saw a new President being elected and deposed 13 months later.
- During the historic period, Egypt allocated an average of 16.3% of its total defense budget towards capital expenditure. However, the share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is anticipated to increase to an average of 17.1% over the forecast period, due to the country’s procurement plans. Capital investment is anticipated to be driven by the need to replace obsolete military equipment such as multirole fighter aircraft, helicopters, air defense missile systems, naval vessels, offshore patrol vessels, surveillance systems, and light weapons and ammunition.
- The MoD is expected to invest in Fighters & Multi-role Aircraft, transport aircraft, and Attack Helicopters.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Egyptian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Egyptian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts


1. Introduction 7
1.1. What is this Report About? 7
1.2. Definitions 7
1.3. Summary Methodology 9
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 10
2. Executive Summary 11
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 13
3.1. Current Market Scenario 14
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 14
3.1.2. Military doctrine and strategy 15
3.1.3. Military fleet size 16
3.1.4. Procurement programs 22
3.1.5. Social, political, & economic environment and support for defense projects 24
3.1.6. Political and strategic alliances 25
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 26
3.2.1. Egyptian aggregate defense expenditure is anticipated to post a CAGR of 6.58% over the forecast period 26
3.2.2. Egypt defense budget (excluding US military aid) expected to cumulatively value US$18.3 billion over the forecast period 29
3.2.3. Perceived threats, military modernization, a strained relationship with Ethiopia, peacekeeping operations, and domestic turbulence expected to drive the country’s defense expenditure 32
3.2.4. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to decline during 2018-2022 35
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 37
3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation is anticipated to increase over the forecast period 37
3.3.2. Egypt to cumulatively allocate US$3.1 billion towards defense capital expenditure (excluding US Aid) over the forecast period 39
3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure to increase over the forecast period 42
3.3.4. Egypt considered at ‘high risk’ of terrorist attack 44
3.3.5. Egypt faces moderate threats from terrorist organizations 45
3.3.6. Egypt has a terrorism index score of 7.3 47
3.4. Benchmarking with key global markets 48
3.4.1. Egyptian defense expenditure expected to grow at a faster pace during 2018-2022 48
3.4.2. Egypt has a relatively small defense budget 50
3.4.3. Egypt allocates 1.4% of its GDP to defense 51
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 52
3.5.1. Fighters & Multi-role Aircraft 52
3.5.2. Transport Aircraft 54
3.5.3. Attack Helicopters 55
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 56
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 57
4.1.1. Defense imports driven by regional security dynamics 57
4.1.2. The US was the leading supplier of arms to Egypt during the historic period 58
4.1.3. Aircraft and naval vessels dominate defense imports 60
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 61
4.2.1. Defense exports from Egypt negligible during the historic period 61
5. Industry Dynamics 62
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 62
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: High 63
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: Low 63
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium to high 63
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low to medium 63
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: medium 63
6. Market Entry Strategy 65
6.1. Market Regulation 65
6.1.1. Egypt has not disclosed any offset obligation 65
6.1.2. Defense procurements lack legitimate procurement laws 65
6.2. Market Entry Route 66
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 66
6.2.2. Procurement policy and process 66
6.2.3. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs 67
6.2.4. Technology transfer and license manufacturing agreements provides an attractive market entry route 67
6.3. Key Challenges 68
6.3.1. Lack of transparency and corruption 68
6.3.2. Political uncertainty and internal instability discourages foreign participation 68
6.3.3. Stalled EU military aid may affect the defense industry 69
7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 70
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 70
7.1.1. Egyptian Defense Industry is predominantly state-run 72
7.2. Key Domestic Companies 75
7.2.1. Abu Zaabal Tank Repair Factory: overview 75
7.2.2. Abu Zaabal Tank Repair Factory: Products and Services 75
7.2.3. Abu Zaabal Tank Repair Factory: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 75
7.2.4. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Engine Factory: overview 76
7.2.5. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Engine Factory: products and services 76
7.2.6. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Aircraft Factory: overview 77
7.2.7. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Aircraft Factory: products and services 77
7.2.8. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Sakr Factory: overview 78
7.2.9. Arab Organization for Industrialization- Sakr Factory: Products 78
7.2.10. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Kader Factory: overview 79
7.2.11. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Kader Factory: Products 79
7.2.12. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Electronics Factory: overview 80
7.2.13. Arab Organization for Industrialization-Electronics Factory: Products 80
7.2.14. Arab British Dynamics Company: overview 81
7.2.15. Arab British Dynamics Company: Products 81
7.2.16. Helwan Factory for Developed Industries: overview 82
7.2.17. Helwan Factory for Developed Industries: Services 82
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 83
8.1. Economic Performance 83
8.1.1. Gross domestic product per capita 83
8.1.2. Gross domestic product (current US$ billion) 84
8.1.3. Exports of goods & services 85
8.1.4. Imports of goods & services 86
8.1.5. Gross national disposable income 87
8.1.6. LCU per USD (period average) 88
8.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Bn) 89
8.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP) 90
8.1.9. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU) 91
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a % of GDP 92
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a % of GDP 93
8.1.12. Service Imports as a % of GDP 94
8.1.13. Service Exports as a % of GDP 95
8.1.14. Foreign direct investment, Net (BoP, Current US$ Billion) 96
8.1.15. Foreign direct investment, as a Percentage of GDP 97
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn) 98
9. Appendix 99
9.1. About SDI 99
9.2. Disclaimer 99


List Of Tables

List of Tables
Table 1: Egypt - Army Strength, 2017 16
Table 2: Egypt - Air Force Strength, 2017 19
Table 3: Egypt - Navy Strength 20
Table 4: Egypt - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs, 2017 22
Table 5: Egypt - Future Procurement Programs, 2017 23
Table 6: Egypt - Defense Expenditure Including US Aid, 2013-2022 26
Table 7: Egypt - Defense Expenditure (EGP Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 30
Table 8: Egypt’s GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2022 35
Table 9: Egypt - Defense Budget Allocation for Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2022 37
Table 10: Egypt - Defense Capital Expenditure, Excluding US Aid (EGP Billion & US$ Billion), 2013-2022 40
Table 11: Egypt - Defense Expenditure as Per Capita Defense Spend (US$), 2013-2022 42
Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2017 45
Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2013-2017 vs. 2018-2022 48
Table 14: Egyptian Budget Formation Timetable 66
Table 15: Competitive Landscape of the Egyptian Defense Industry 71
Table 16: Abu Zaabal Tank Repair Factory - Product Focus 75
Table 17: Arab Organization for Industrialization-Engine Factory - Product Focus 76
Table 18: Arab Organization for Industrialization-Aircraft Factory - Product Focus 77
Table 19: Arab Organization for Industrialization-Sakr Factory - Product Focus 78
Table 20: Arab Organization for Industrialization-Kader Factory - Product Focus 79
Table 21: Arab Organization for Industrialization-Electronics Factory - Product Focus 80
Table 22: Arab British Dynamics Company - Product Focus 81
Table 23: Helwan Factory for Developed Industries- Services 82


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