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The Wireless network data traffic in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

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DESCRIPTION

Future growth of cellular data traffic is central to the strategies of mobile network operators in the developed Asia–Pacific region. This report assesses to what extent operators in developed Asia–Pacific will be able to increase cellular data traffic and different ways to achieve this aim.

<p>Future growth of cellular data traffic is central to the strategies of mobile network operators in the developed Asia–Pacific region. This report assesses to what extent operators in developed Asia–Pacific will be able to increase cellular data traffic and different ways to achieve this aim.</p>

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive summary

WORLDWIDE TRENDS

Worldwide: The rate of growth for cellular data traffic will slow considerably during the forecast period

Worldwide: Rapid 4G adoption in India and China is driving cellular data traffic growth

Worldwide: Even in 2021 there will still be some correlation between income levels and monthly handset usage

Worldwide: Dongle and router traffic is not set to account for a large proportion of traffic across most emerging markets

Worldwide: Public Wi-Fi traffic’s share of total out-of-home traffic is declining in developed markets

Worldwide: There continues to be little correlation between cellular data traffic growth and operator revenue

Worldwide: Removing unlimited throttled speed prepaid data quotas can significantly reduce traffic, but its commercial impact has been mixed

Worldwide: Offering unlimited throttled speed video traffic need not increase video traffic and could be a significant differentiator

REGIONAL TRENDS

Developed Asia–Pacific: Markets in the DVAP region do not all share the same characteristics

Developed Asia–Pacific: Annual growth rates per 4G smartphone are already quite low in the region

COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS

Hong Kong: Operators are focusing on mobile data profitability and using public Wi-Fi to offload cellular traffic

Japan: Technology upgrades and competition will drive data traffic growth during the forecast period

South Korea: Supply-side conditions favour data traffic growth, but MNOs will struggle to monetise traffic increases

Taiwan: Operators continue to offer unlimited data plans, due to intense market competition

FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

Definition of geographical regions [1]

Definition of geographical regions [2]

Forecast methodology and assumptions

ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON

About the authors

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

Research from Analysys Mason

Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

Figure 1: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021

Figure 2: Cellular data traffic by region, 2014–2021

Figure 3: Share of traffic over 2G/3G and 4G and higher devices, worldwide, emerging and developed economies, 2014–2021

Figure 4: Cellular data traffic, worldwide, developed economies and emerging economies, 2014–2021, Analysys Mason 2015 and 2016 forecasts

Figure 5: Monthly data traffic per handset against GDP per capita, 2021, selected countries worldwide

Figure 6: Dongle and router share of total cellular data traffic, selected countries, 2016 and 2021

Figure 7: South Korea’s public Wi-Fi traffic carried through operators’ networks, year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014–3Q 2016

Figure 8: Year-on-year mobile data traffic growth, overall retail revenue growth and data revenue growth, worldwide, 2014–2016

Figure 9: Year-on-year mobile data revenue and cellular data traffic by developed market region, 2015 and 2016

Figure 10: Telefonica Brasil data traffic and net mobile service revenue year-on-year growth, 1Q 2014-4Q 2015

Figure 11: Ratio of data consumption by video resolution format (144p = 1)

Figure 12: Annual rate of growth, cellular data traffic, selected developed Asia–Pacific markets, 2014–2017

Figure 13: Cellular data traffic per head of population per month, selected developed Asia–Pacific markets, 2015 and 2016

Figure 14: Cellular data traffic by market and 4G device share, developed Asia–Pacific, 2014–2021

Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by device type, Hong Kong, 2016–2021

Figure 16: Cellular data traffic by device type, Japan, 2016–2021

Figure 17: Cellular data traffic by device type, South Korea 2016–2021

Figure 18: Cellular data traffic by device type, Taiwan, 2016–2021

Figure 19a: Regional breakdown used in this report

Figure 19b: Regional breakdown used in this report

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