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The Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: interim forecast update 20142019

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We have revised our telecoms service revenue forecast for the region throughout the forecast period to reflect the strong growth in smartphone take-up as well as a faster-than-expected erosion of voice and messaging revenue. The steep currency depreciation of the South African Rand compared with the US dollar in 2013 also caused a reduction of our historical regional revenue (and forecasts)

5.Executive summary
 6.Sub-Saharan Africa’s telecoms market offers strong growth opportunities, mostly in mobile – total service revenue will reach USD62 billion by 2019
 7.Handset data and mobile voice services will account for 94% of retail revenue growth between 2013 and 2019
 8.Smartphones will account for 29% of handsets in the region by 2019 because LTE will be limited to high-value users, except in South Africa
 9.Key regional changes since our previous forecast: We have revised down our revenue forecasts because of currency depreciation
 10.Forecast revision: Revenue revised down in 2013 and 2018, mainly due to currency fluctuations in South Africa, but growth is almost unchanged
 11.Individual country forecasts
 12.Côte d’Ivoire: Telecoms service revenue will reach XOF1.1trillion by 2019, driven by mobile voice and handset data services
 13.Ghana: Revenue forecast revised down because mobile voice and messaging revenue will decline faster than expected
 14.Kenya: Strong competition is eroding mobile voice revenue faster than expected and we revised down our LTE forecast
 15.Nigeria: Service revenue in 2018 is unchanged – slower mobile voice growth offset our upward revision of fixed broadband
 16.South Africa: MTR cuts are affecting mobile voice revenue forecasts and LTE adoption is slow because spectrum is limited
 17.Sudan: Revenue forecast unchanged, but negative macroeconomic conditions may threaten growth of the mobile market
 18.Tanzania: Revenue forecast revised down because we reduced rates of mobile voice and fixed broadband revenue growth
 19.Uganda: Our forecast remains unchanged – service revenue will exceed UGX4 trillion by 2019, driven by handset data services
 20.About the authors and Analysys Mason
 21.About the authors
 22.About the authors
 23.About Analysys Mason
 24.Research from Analysys Mason
 25.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List Of Figures

 Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
 Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009–2019
 Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2019
 Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013  and 2019
 Figure 5: Summary of major changes compared with our July 2014 forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
 Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 and  2018
 Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2018
 Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013–2018
 Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Côte d’Ivoire, 2009–2019
 Figure 10: Summary of key telecoms market drivers and assumptions, Côte d’Ivoire
 Figure 11: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts,  Ghana, 2009–2019
 Figure 12: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Ghana
 Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Kenya,  2009–2019
 Figure 14: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Kenya
 Figure 15: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts,  Nigeria, 2009–2019
 Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Nigeria
 Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South  Africa, 2009–2019
 Figure 18: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Africa
 Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts,  Sudan, 2009–2019
 Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Sudan
 Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts,  Tanzania, 2009–2019
 Figure 22: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Tanzania
 Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts,  Uganda, 2009–2019
 Figure 24: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Uganda


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Reports Details

Published Date : Mar 2015
No. of Pages :23
Country :Sub-Saharan Africa
Category :Telecommunications
Publisher :Analysys Mason Limited
Report Delivery By :Email
Report Delivery Time :12 to 24 hours after placing the order.

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