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The Emerging AsiaPacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20152020

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Asia–Pacific research aims to help clients both within and outside the region to maximise growth opportunities in these rapidly changing markets. Our 5-year forecasts cover mobile and fixed KPIs for the emerging Asia–Pacific region as a whole and more than five key countries. Forecast KPIs include connections, ARPU and revenue, technology, usage and traffic.

9.Executive summary
 10.Mobile handset data and broadband (mobile and fixed) will be the key drivers of telecoms revenue in EMAP
 11.The combined contribution of mobile voice and messaging revenue will fall to 31% of mobile retail revenue by 2020
 12.China and India will dominate and telecoms retail revenue will increase in both countries during the forecast period
 13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
 14.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
 15.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
 16.Geographical coverage: China will have the highest share of 4G connections and Malaysia will lead fixed broadband penetration
 17.Market context: Mobile penetration is less than 110% in most countries, so there is still room for growth
 18.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data and broadband (fixed and mobile) will drive the telecom retail revenue growth in EMAP
 19.Mobile penetration: Multiple-SIM and device ownership will contribute to the growth of mobile penetration to 102% by 2020
 20.Mobile connections: 4G will have the highest share of connections in 2020
 21.Smartphones and LTE: Low-cost smartphones and high-speed mobile data will see strong growth throughout the forecast period
 22.Mobile ARPU: Growth in data will offset the decline from voice and messaging, thereby alleviating the decline rate of ARPU
 23.Fixed services: Cable and fibre fixed broadband connections will increase, and VDSL will support DSL growth from 2016
 24.Fixed broadband: Penetration is low at this stage, but it will grow in all countries
 25.Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia–Pacific market
 26.Individual country forecasts
 27.Bangladesh: Mobile broadband and M2M revenue will increase significantly, but fixed broadband revenue will decline
 28.Bangladesh – mobile: Better 3G coverage and adoption drives growth of smartphone and mobile penetration
 29.Bangladesh – fixed: Fixed broadband penetration is not expected to grow as consumers prefer mobile broadband
 30.China: This large market will continue to grow but the CAGR of total service revenue from 2014 to 2020 will slow down to 3.2%
 31.China – mobile: Increasingly affordable smartphones and the development of MVNOs will encourage LTE take-up
 32.China – fixed: Price reduction will increase penetration but lower ARPU, and restructuring will intensify market competition
 33.India: Growth will slow down for mobile non-voice and fixed broadband segments
 34.India – mobile: Better coverage, reduced tariffs and affordable smartphones contribute to high non-voice revenue and adoption
 35.India – fixed: Fixed broadband connections will grow on account of FTTx and cable broadband take-up
 36.Indonesia: Voice revenue declines due to increased smartphone penetration; fixed broadband growth continues
 37.Indonesia – mobile: Mobile broadband gains adoption across the country and 3G continues to grow
 38.Indonesia – fixed: Better coverage and fibre deployment will boost fixed broadband adoption
 39.Malaysia: 4G adoption will drive the growth in mobile handset data revenue, but voice and messaging will decline
 40.Malaysia: 4G adoption will drive the growth in mobile handset data revenue, but voice and messaging will decline
 41.Malaysia – fixed: Better fibre connectivity will drive fixed broadband and IPTV growth
 42.Pakistan: Introduction of 3G and better network coverage will result in growth of mobile handset data and broadband
 43.Pakistan – mobile: The market will continue to grow with increased 3G adoption, but price wars will reduce ARPU
 44.Pakistan – fixed: Fixed voice and broadband connections continue to grow, but at a reducing growth rate
 45.Sri Lanka: All segments of the telecoms market will grow except the traditional voice and messaging services
 46.Sri Lanka – mobile: Rising 3G and 4G adoption will drive the growth of smartphones and mobile broadband
 47.Sri Lanka – fixed: Fixed broadband will continue to grow with DSL in the majority, and IPTV will gain popularity over time
 48.Thailand: Telecoms retail revenue will grow at a slowing rate to THB318.6 billion by 2020; technology migration will accelerate
 49.Thailand – mobile: Mobile voice and messaging will continue to decline, and migration to 4G will accelerate in the near future
 50.Thailand – fixed: There will be continuous investment in fixed broadband network upgrades enabling multi-play services
 51.Vietnam: Increasing 3G adoption and the launch of 4G will drive smartphone penetration
 52.Vietnam – mobile: Better 3G coverage and service will result in continued growth of mobile broadband and smartphones
 53.Vietnam – fixed: Fixed broadband will keep growing, while fixed voice will continuously decline
 54.About the authors and Analysys Mason
 55.About the authors
 56.About Analysys Mason


List Of Figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
 Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2020
 Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, emerging Asia–Pacific
 Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia–Pacific
 Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2020
 Figure 6: Metrics for the nine countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014
 Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
 Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2020
 Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2020
 Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
 Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
 Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014 and 2020
 Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2010–2020
 Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
 Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2010–2020
 Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2020
 Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Bangladesh, 2010–2020
 Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Bangladesh, 2014–2020
 Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Bangladesh, 2014–2020
 Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Bangladesh, 2010–2020
 Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Bangladesh, 2010–2020
 Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Bangladesh
 Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Bangladesh, 2010–2020
 Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Bangladesh, 2010–2020
 Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Bangladesh
 Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), China, 2010–2020
 Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, China, 2014–2020
 Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, China, 2014–2020
 Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, China, 2010–2020
 Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, China, 2010–20201
 Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, China
 Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, China, 2010–2020
 Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, China, 2010–2020
 Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, China
 Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), India, 2010–2020
 Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, India, 2014–2020
 Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, India, 2014–2020
 Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, India, 2010–2020
 Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, India, 2010–2020
 Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, India
 Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, India, 2010–2020
 Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, India, 2010–2020
 Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, India
 Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Indonesia, 2010–2020
 Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Indonesia, 2014–2020
 Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Indonesia, 2014–2020
 Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Indonesia, 2010–2020
 Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Indonesia, 2010–2020
 Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
 Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Indonesia, 2010–2020
 Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Indonesia, 2010–2020
 Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
 Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Malaysia, 2010–2020
 Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Malaysia, 2014–2020
 Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Malaysia, 2014–2020
 Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Malaysia, 2010–2020
 Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Malaysia, 2010–2020
 Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
 Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Malaysia, 2010–2020
 Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Malaysia, 2010–2020
 Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
 Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Pakistan, 2010–2020
 Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Pakistan, 2014–2020
 Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, Pakistan, 2014–2020
 Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Pakistan, 2010–2020
 Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Pakistan, 2010–2020
 Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Pakistan
 Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Pakistan, 2010–2020
 Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Pakistan, 2010–2020
 Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Pakistan
 Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sri Lanka, 2010–2020
 Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sri Lanka, 2014–2020
 Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sri Lanka, 2014–2020
 Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sri Lanka, 2010–2020
 Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sri Lanka, 2010–2020
 Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sri Lanka
 Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Sri Lanka, 2010–2020
 Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, Sri Lanka, 2010–2020
 Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Sri Lanka
 Figure 80: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Thailand, 2010–2020
 Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Thailand, 2014–2020
 Figure 82: Connections by type, and growth rates, Thailand, 2014–2020
 Figure 83: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Thailand, 2010–2020
 Figure 84: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Thailand, 2010–2020
 Figure 85: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
 Figure 86: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Thailand, 2010–2020
 Figure 87: Fixed ASPU by service type, Thailand, 2010–2020
 Figure 88: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
 Figure 89: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Vietnam, 2010–2020
 Figure 90: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Vietnam, 2014–2020
 Figure 91: Connections by type, and growth rates, Vietnam, 2014–2020
 Figure 92: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Vietnam, 2010–2020
 Figure 93: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Vietnam, 2010–2020
 Figure 94: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
 Figure 95: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Vietnam, 2010–2020
 Figure 96: Fixed ASPU by service type, Vietnam, 2010–2020
 Figure 97: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam


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Reports Details

Published Date : Oct 2015
Country :Asia-Pacific
Category :Telecommunications
Publisher :Analysys Mason Limited
Report Delivery By :Email
Report Delivery Time :12 to 24 hours after placing the order.

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