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The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 20152020

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Latin America telecoms market offers significant growth opportunities for operators as LTE gains momentum and intense MA activity drives dynamism and competition in most markets. Service revenue will reach USD140 billion by 2020. This report provides our telecoms forecasts through 2020 as well as an explanation of the main drivers and assumptions.

 8.Executive summary
 9.Latin Americas telecoms market offers significant growth opportunities for operators – service revenue will reach USD140 billion by 2020
 10.Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue growth in LATAM between 2014 and 2020, followed by fixed broadband
 11.Telecoms retail revenue will grow in all markets between 2014 and 2020, although regulatory activity will constrain growth in Chile and Mexico
 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
 15.Geographical coverage: We model the seven largest markets, which account for about 90% of Latin Americas total telecoms service revenue
 16.Market context: Mobile penetration exceeds 100% in all countries except Mexico, and Brazil and Mexico account for 61% of the regions revenue
 17.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data services will overtake mobile voice services in 2020 and become the largest source of retail revenue
 18.Mobile penetration: Most handset markets are saturated and offer low growth prospects, and non-handset broadband take-up is slowing down
 19.Mobile connections: LTE is making an impact in Latin America and will account for 19% of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M) by 2020
 20.Smartphones and LTE: Brazil will have the highest smartphone population penetration and LTE take-up rates over the next 5 years
 21.Mobile ARPU: Competition is set to intensify in all markets and will drive down ARPU, while Argentina and Venezuela will have high inflation
 22.Fixed services: Cable services will gain the most subscribers – driven by pay-TV bundles – but DSL will retain the largest share through 2020
 23.Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets through 2019 as competition stimulates demand and multi-play adoption grows
 24.Key drivers at a glance
 25.Individual country forecasts
 26.Argentina: Service revenue will reach ARS122 billion in 2020, but high inflation will be partly responsible for this growth
 27.Argentina – mobile: Penetration peaked in 2013 and will decline further as multiple-SIM ownership shrinks
 28.Argentina – fixed: Broadband penetration growth will be mainly driven by single-play voice and pay-TV users adding broadband
 29.Brazil: Service revenue will continue to grow through 2019 as LTE drives up data spending and fixed broadband take-up accelerates
 30.Brazil – mobile: LTE gains strength, but regulation, price competition and substitution to OTT services will reduce ARPU
 31.Brazil – fixed: The broadband market will become more dynamic thanks to fibre take-up and fixed–mobile bundles
 32.Chile: Data revenue growth will offset the decline in mobile voice revenue, which will be driven by MTR cuts and MVNO competition
 33.Chile – mobile: Mobile ARPU will remain almost stable as data usage compensates for the strong pressure on voice prices
 34.Chile – fixed: Fixed–mobile substitution will drive down fixed voice revenue while fixed broadband will maintain solid growth
 35.Colombia: Service revenue will stagnate after a peak in 2018 because fixed and mobile data growth will eventually slow down
 36.Colombia – mobile: OTT services will almost completely eliminate mobile messaging revenue by 2020 and LTE take-up will be slow
 37.Colombia – fixed: Growth in the broadband market will continue thanks to expanded coverage and service bundling
 38.Mexico: Regulation will limit mobile revenue growth in the short term, but may ultimately unlock the markets potential
 39.Mexico – mobile: AT&Ts market entry and Telefónicas presence will make the market more dynamic
 40.Mexico – fixed: Broadband growth will accelerate as operators invest in coverage and fixed voice remains resilient
 41.Peru: Service revenue will reach PEN17 billion in 2020 as improvements in 3G and 4G networks drive mobile revenue
 42.Peru – mobile: Small operators are gaining momentum, which will make the mobile market more dynamic and drive growth
 43.Peru – fixed: Low-ASPU cable connections will drive a short-term decline in fixed broadband ASPU, but it will eventually stabilise
 44.Venezuela: Service revenue will reach VEF238 billion in 2020, driven by data services and boosted by a high rate of inflation
 45.Venezuela – mobile: LTE will gain strength because operators have to meet population coverage targets conditions
 46.Venezuela – fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly because fixed competition is low and LTE will boost mobile Internet usage
 47.About the authors and Analysys Mason
 48.About the authors
 49.About Analysys Mason
 50.Research from Analysys Mason
 51.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List Of Figures

 Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2010–2020
 Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America,<br />2014–2020
 Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Latin America
 Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
 Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Latin America, 2020
 Figure 6: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2014
 Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2010–2020
 Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2014–2020
 Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2014–2020
 Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2010–2020
 Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4Gs share of connections, Latin America, 2010–2020
 Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTEs share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2014 and 2020
 Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2010–20201
 Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2010–2020
 Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2010–2020
 Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Latin America,<br />2015–2020
 Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2010–2020
 Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
 Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2010–2020
 Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina,<br />2010–2020
 Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Argentina, 2010–2020
 Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
 Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2010–2020
 Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Argentina, 2010–2020
 Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
 Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2010–2020
 Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
 Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
 Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2010–2020
 Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Brazil, 2010–2020
 Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
 Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2010–2020
 Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Brazil, 2010–2020
 Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
 Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2010–2020
 Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2010–2020
 Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2010–2020
 Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2010–2020
 Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Chile, 2010–2020
 Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Chile
 Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2010–2020
 Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Chile, 2010–2020
 Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Chile
 Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2010–2020
 Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
 Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
 Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2010–2020
 Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Colombia, 2010–2020
 Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
 Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2010–2020
 Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Colombia, 2010–2020
 Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
 Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2010–2020
 Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
 Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
 Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2010–2020
 Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Mexico, 2010–2020
 Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
 Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2010–2020
 Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Mexico, 2010–2020
 Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
 Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2010–2020
 Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2010–2020
 Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2010–2020
 Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2010–2020
 Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Peru, 2010–2020
 Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Peru
 Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2010–2020
 Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Peru, 2010–2020
 Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Peru
 Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Venezuela, 2010–2020
 Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
 Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
 Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Venezuela, 2010–2020
 Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Venezuela, 2010–2020
 Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
 Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Venezuela, 2010–2020
 Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, Venezuela, 2010–2020
 Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela


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Reports Details

Published Date : Jun 2015
No. of Pages :52
Country :Latin America
Category :Telecom Services
Publisher :Analysys Mason Limited
Report Delivery By :Email
Report Delivery Time :12 to 24 hours after placing the order.

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