World containerport demand has expanded rapidly in recent decades, and continued to grow, even in the difficult economic conditions of 2001 and 2002. Growth has been driven by the expansion of trade, the ongoing conversion of cargoes to containerisation and the development of transshipment, which generates three port moves for every container handled.

This study analyses the evolution of world container handling demand by port and assesses current developments. Future demand is forecast to 2015 by region and port range.

It addresses critical questions such as:

• How will slower economic growth and increasing geopolitical uncertainty affect demand?

• How confident can we be about medium term demand projections - is globalisation unstoppable or is there a significant downside in demand forecasting?

• How will greater port demand be reconciled with increasingly vociferous environmental opposition.?

• What will he the role of transshipment - how important is this in securing front-rank port status?

• Ship sizes are still increasing and will continue to do so - what are the implications for port development?

• What is the role of the principal international stevedoring companies in the global market and how will this affect productivity and pricing?

The major regions covered in the study are:

Transshipment has been a major aspect of world containerport demand in recent years. This report provides detailed analysis and forecasts of the development of transshipment markets throughout the world. These include distinct regional markets in:

This study examines the regional driving forces for each of these transshipment regions.

On the supply side, the position of current investment projects and plans is reviewed in detail. The resultant prospective development of port capacity is quantified to 2010. This provides the basis for comparing demand and supply to 2010, in order to identify potential surplus capacity or shortfalls. The level of capacity utilisation will indicate the likely direction of container handling prices.

Section 1 INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This provides a comprehensive summary and conclusions for the study.

Section 2 DRIVING FORCES OF CONTAINERPORT DEMAND

The Section reviews the broad macroeconomic framework within which trade in containerised goods has expanded. After four decades of expansion, can the containerised trades continue their pattern of rapid growth? This Section seeks to answer this question by analysing factors which could limit expansion.

The changing structure of the containerport industry is also considered, covering such issues as increasing vessel size and port depth, dedicated terminals, transshipment, carrier alliances and the role of international stevedoring companies.
 

The framework for two economic cases used to forecast containerport demand is established.

Section 3 OVERVIEW

This Section provides an overview of world containerport demand trends and amalgamates the regional demand forecasts developed in the succeeding Sections.

The evolution of regional container transshipment markets is also summarised in this Section, and forecasts are aggregated to provide a forward view of the global transshipment market to 2015.

Section 4 THE EAST ASIAN CONTAINERPORT MARKET

East Asia currently provides the largest and most rapidly growing share of world containerport demand. Containerport demand trends are analysed by port for three port regions:
- Northeast Asia: Japan, South Korea. Northeast China, Far East Russia
- Chinese port region: East and Southeast China, Hong Kong, Taiwan.
- Southeast Asia: Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Brunei.

Container handling demand forecasts are presented for each country. Import/export container handling demand forecasts are based on the anticipated relationship with GDP growth, whilst transshipment demand forecasts are derived from their relation to the aggregate import/export demand of each sub-region.

The Section presents a comprehensive review of current containerport investment projects, which provides a reasonable indication of future capacity development to 2010.

The anticipated supply and demand for container handling is quantified in terms of planned port capacity and forecast throughput to 2010. From these, forecasts of port utilisation are derived and likely areas of excess capacity or shortfall are identified.

Section 5 THE CONTAINERPORT MARKETS OF THE AMERICAS

As in Section 4, containerport demand trends and forecasts are presented and compared with anticipated supply, based on current investment plans, to generate indices of port utilisation to2010.

The port regions considered in this Section are:
- North America: west coast - north and south ranges; east coast - north and south ranges; Gulf coast.
- Caribbean and Central America: Caribbean islands, Mexico, Panama and other Central American countries, Venezuela and the Caribbean coast of Colombia.
- South America: east and west coasts.

The Caribbean/Central American transshipment market is analysed in detail, and forecasts developed to 2015.

Section 6 THE CONTAINERPORT MARKETS OF EUROPE AND THE MEDITERRANEAN

This Section broadly follows the format of the preceding regional Sections, covering containerport demand trends by port and forecasts by country, investment plans, capacity forecasts and capacity utilisation forecasts. It covers the following port regions:
- North Europe: North Continent, British Isles, Scandinavia/Other Baltic.
- European Atlantic: Atlantic France, Portugal, Atlantic Spain and Atlantic islands.
- West Mediterranean: Mediterranean Spain and France, Morocco, Algeria.
- Central Mediterranean: Italy, Adriatic coast, Tunisia.
- East Mediterranean and Black Sea: Greece, Turkey, Black Sea countries, Syria, Lebanon, Mediterranean Israel, Mediterranean Egypt.

Additionally, the Section quantifies and forecasts the distinct container transshipment markets for each of the above port regions.

Section 7 OTHER CONTAINERPORT MARKETS

In this Section, analyses and forecasts are presented in similar fashion for the containerport markets of the Middle East and Indian subcontinent, sub-Saharan Africa and Australasia. These are considered under the following port regions:
- Middle East: Red Sea, Arabian Sea/Gulf of Aden, Arabian Gulf/Gulf of Oman, Indian Subcontinent and Sri Lanka.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Southern Africa, East Africa, West Africa.
- Australasia: Australia, New Zealand, Oceania.

The development and driving forces of the Middle East/Sri Lanka transshipment market are examined, and transshipment forecasts developed for its constituent port ranges.