Camera-phones are on the verge of delivering the snapshot capabilities that people currently expect from single-use film cameras and entry-level digital cameras. The recent release of two-megapixel camera-phones by all three Japanese wireless carriers raises the question: Why buy a digital camera?

“Will Camera-phones Replace Digital Cameras?” is based on an in-depth analysis of the performance characteristics of point-and-shoot digital cameras and camera-phones in more than 30 separate performance and value dimensions, both for current and soon-to-be-released models. Current and near-term capabilities and trends are considered. The 50 page study with 62 figures and charts includes forecasts for the impact of camera-phones on unit sales and dollar values of three categories of point-and-shoot cameras – one megapixel and under, two megapixel, and three megapixel, the current “sweet spot” for consumer cameras. Its key conclusions include:

• Digital camera manufacturers are already beginning to feel the impact of camera-phone popularity in the Japanese domestic market, where there are more than 25 million camera-phones in use.

• Over the study period 2003–2006, camera-phones will reduce the sales of digital cameras by 7.7 percent, for a total of 12.6 million fewer units shipped, and a decrease of more than $2.7 Billion in shipment value.

• Less than two percent of camera-phone sales will be substitution sales, with the balance consisting entirely of incremental sales.

Copyright Notice
Definitions & Methodology

Table of Figures
I. Comparing Performance Characteristics
1. Introduction: Refining the question
2. Advantages of Dedicated Digital Cameras
2.1 Lens Quality
2.2 Resolution
2.3 Sensors
2.4 Optical Zoom.
2.5 Lens Versatility
2.6 Manufacturer’s Reputation
2.7 Manual Controls
2.8 Internal Memory
2.9 Removable Storage
2.10 Display
2.11 File Formats
2.12 Shooting Modes
2.12.1 Video/Movie
2.12.2 Macro
2.12.3 Panoramic/Stitching
2.12.4 “Motor Drive”
2.12.5 Self-timer
2.12.6 Best Shot
2.12.7 Special Modes
2.13 Exposure Compensation
2.14 Special Effects
2.15 Audio Recording/Annotation
2.16 Flash
2.17 Connectivity
2.18 Focusing
2.19 Metering
2.20 Size & Weight.
2.21 Ergonomics
2.22 Interface
2.23 Price/Costs
3. Digital Cameras Have The Lead
4. Advantages of Camera-Phones
4.1 Versatility
4.2 Market Scale
4.3 Ubiquity
4.4 Communication.
5. And The Winner Is
II. The Future Image WIRE Forecast
1. The Impact of Camera-Phones - Units & Dollars
1.1 Digital Camera Market Dynamics
1.2 One-Megapixel and Under
1.3 Two-Megapixel Models
1.4 Three-Megapixel Models
2. Bottom Line: Overall Impact on the Imaging Industry
About the Author/About Future Image

Table of Figures

Fig. i – Japanese Digital Camera Production Mix, 2002–2003 (source: CIPA)
Fig. ii – Japanese Digital Camera Production Mix, H1-2003 (source: CIPA)
Fig. 1 – CMOS and CCD sensors
Fig. 2 – Panasonic Lumix DMC-FZ1 w/12x zoom
Fig. 3 – Pentax Optio Sliding Lens System
Fig. 4 – Minolta DiMAGE X “folded” zoom lens
Fig. 5 – Kyocera Finecam SL300R.
Fig. 6 – Concord EyeQ 3340z
Fig. 7 – Concord “folded” zoom lens
Fig. 8 – Minolta Micro Zoom Camera (MCZ)
Fig. 9 – FDK/Macnica FMZ10
Fig. 10 – 1 Limited’s piezoelectric ‘fabric’ deployed as a micro-motor for repositioning lens elements
Fig. 11 – 1 Limited Helimorph.
Fig. 12 – 1 Limited mini-camera
Fig. 13 – LG-KH5000 with lens mounted in hinge
Fig. 14 – Canon EOS Lenses
Fig. 15 – Digital camera menus
Fig. 16 – U.S. camera-phone interface screens
Fig. 17 – Removable media formats
Fig. 18 – Sharp J-SH533
Fig. 19 – Kodak EasyShare LS633 OLED display3
Fig. 20 – Sanyo A5306ST Sub-Display
Fig. 21 – Sharp SH251iS 3D display explained
Fig. 22 – Kyocera A1401K MovieMail handset
Fig. 23 – NEC N504iS macro lens
Fig. 24 – Canon EOS-1v (film) with motor drive
Fig. 25 – Mitsubishi D251iS shooting modes (left to right): normal,
‘beauty white,’ ‘sunburn,’ letter, and night scene
Fig. 26 – “Fun frames”
Fig. 27 – Photo Chara Kobo service from KDDI
Fig. 28 – Nikon Coolpix 2100 with built-in flash
Fig. 29 – Camera-phone photo lights
Fig. 30 – Sony Ericsson MPF-10 Phone Flash
Fig. 31 – Toshiba J-T51 with Mobile Flash
Fig. 32 – Kodak EasyShare CX4200 docked
Fig. 33 – Olympus C-21T.commu with phone
Fig. 34 – Shooting with the Sony Ericsson SO505i.
Fig. 35 – Shooting with the Panasonic P2102V
Fig. 36 – Canon S200 controls
Fig. 37 – Casio A5401 controls (note camera button)
Fig. 38 – Digital Camera Advantages Scorecard
Fig. 39 – Camera-phones as compared by NPC: SO505i (upper left), D505i (upper right), A5401CA (lower left), and J-SH53 (lower right)
Fig. 40 – Japanese camera-phone interface screens
Fig. 41 – Clip-on covers (Sony Ericsson A1101S)
Fig. 42 – Nokia 3300 “music phone”
Fig. 43 – Nokia gaming cover
Fig. 44 – Nokia N-Gage “gaming” handset
Fig. 45 – Pentax Optio S in Altoids tin
Fig. 46 – Casio Exilim: “No visible camera lines.”
Fig. 47 – Minolta DiMAGE X: “Always Ultra-Slim”
Fig. 48 – SMaL Ultra-Pocket
Fig. 49 – SiPix StyleCam Blink
Fig. 50 – Che-ez! Snap* is sold with a neck chain.
Fig. 51 – Camera-Phone Advantages Scorecard
Fig. 52 – Digital Camera Sales Growth 2002–2006
Fig. 53 – Worldwide Digital Camera Sales: Units, 2002–2006 (IDC)
Fig. 54 – Worldwide Digital Camera Sales: Dollar Value,2002–2006 (IDC)
Fig. 55 – Camera-phone erosion of worldwide 2MP digital camera sales: units, 2003–2006
Fig. 56 – Camera-phone erosion of worldwide 2MP digital camera sales: $, 2003–2006
Fig. 57 – Camera-phone erosion of worldwide 3MP digital camera sales: units, 2003–2006
Fig. 58 – Camera-phone erosion of worldwide 3MP digital camera sales: $, 2003–2006
Fig. 59 – Camera-phone + digital camera sales: units, 2003–2006
Fig. 60 – L.A. Cameras, Chambersburg, PA
Fig. 61 – Digital image capture device sales, 2005
Fig. 62 – Digital images, 2005