1 Introduction 1.1 What is this Report About? 1.2 Definitions 1.3 Summary Methodology 1.4 ICD Research Terrorism Index 1.5 About ICD Research 1.6 About Strategic Defense Intelligence 2 Executive Summary 3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 3.1 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 3.1.1 Ukrainian defense expenditure expected to record a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period 3.1.2 Tensions with Russia, acquisition of new military hardware systems and participation in peacekeeping missions expected to drive Ukrainian defense expenditure 3.1.3 Defense expenditure closely linked to overall economic growth 3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 3.2.1 Capital expenditure allocation of overall defense budget expected to increase during the forecast period 3.2.2 The Ukrainian Air Force accounts for the majority of the country’s defense expenditure 3.2.3 Ukrainian Army expenditure expected to register a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period 3.2.4 Ukrainian Navy allocation of overall defense budget expected to increase 3.2.5 Ukraine expected to invest US$XX billion in its air force over the forecast period 3.2.6 DSU expenditure projected to record a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period 3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 3.3.1 Homeland security expenditure expected to record a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period 3.3.2 Organized crime, maritime security threats and ethnic tensions expected to encourage investment in the procurement of homeland security equipment 3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 3.4.1 During the forecast period, Ukraine is expected to continue to exercise limited influence in the international arms market 3.4.2 Ukrainian military expenditure is limited compared to world’s leading defense spenders 3.4.3 During the review period, Ukraine was the world’s eleventh-largest arms exporter 3.4.4 In comparison with the world’s leading defense spenders, Ukrainian defense expenditure, as a percentage of GDP, is moderate 3.4.5 According to the ICD Research Terrorism Index, Ukraine faces some risk of terrorist threat 3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers 3.5.1 Maritime defense equipment expected to experience increased demand in the forecast period 3.5.2 Market opportunities for air defense systems expected to increase 3.5.3 Border security and critical infrastructure protection equipment will experience increased demand 4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 4.1 Import Market Dynamics 4.1.1 A relatively small defense budget limits Ukraine’s defense imports 4.2 Export Market Dynamics 4.2.1 Ukrainian arms exports declined in 2010 4.2.2 The Ukrainian defense industry has a diverse consumer base 4.2.3 The majority of Ukrainian defense exports consist of aircraft and armored vehicles 5 Industry Dynamics 5.1 Five Forces Analysis 5.1.1 Bargaining power of supplier: low to high 5.1.2 Bargaining power of buyer: low 5.1.3 Barrier to entry: high 5.1.4 Intensity of rivalry: low to high 5.1.5 Threat of substitution: high 6 Market Entry Strategy 6.1 Market Regulation 6.1.1 Ukraine follows prohibitive defense industry FDI policy 6.2 Market Entry Route 6.2.1 Joint development of defense goods provides investors with a market entry opportunity 6.2.2 Foreign investors can enter the industry through direct sales 6.3 Key Challenges 6.3.1 Small defense budget offers equipment manufacturers limited investment potential 6.3.2 Lack of necessary infrastructure impedes growth of domestic defense industry 6.3.3 Corruption and a lack of transparency discourages investors from entering the market 7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 7.1 Competitive Landscape Overview 7.2 Key Public Sector Companies 7.2.1 Antonov ASTC: overview 7.2.2 Antonov ASTC: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 7.2.3 Antonov ASTC: alliances 7.2.4 Antonov ASTC: recent contract wins 7.2.5 Antonov ASTC: financial analysis 7.2.6 RPC Fort: overview 7.2.7 RPC Fort: products and services 7.2.8 RPC Fort: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 7.2.9 RPC Fort: alliances 7.2.10 RPC Fort: recent contract wins 7.2.11 RPC Fort: financial analysis 7.2.12 KMDB: overview 7.2.13 KMDB: products and services 7.2.14 KMDB: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 7.2.15 KMDB: alliances 7.2.16 KMDB: recent contract wins 7.2.17 KMDB: financial analysis 7.2.18 Malyshev Plant: overview 7.2.19 Malyshev Plant: products and services 7.2.20 Malyshev Plant: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 7.2.21 Malyshev Plant: alliances 7.2.22 Malyshev Plant: recent contract wins 7.2.23 Malyshev Plant: financial analysis 7.2.24 AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: overview 7.2.25 AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: products and services 7.2.26 AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 7.2.27 AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: alliances 7.2.28 AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent contract wins 7.2.29 AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: financial analysis 7.2.30 Motor Sich: overview 7.2.31 Motor Sich: products and services 7.2.32 Motor Sich: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 7.2.33 Motor Sich: alliances 7.2.34 Motor Sich: recent contract wins 7.2.35 Motor Sich: financial analysis 7.2.36 Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: overview 7.2.37 Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: products and services 7.2.38 Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 7.2.39 Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: alliances 7.2.40 Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: recent contract wins 7.2.41 Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant: financial analysis 8 Business Environment and Country Risk 8.1 Business Confidence 8.1.1 Market capitalization trend - the PFTS * Stock Exchange, Ukraine 8.1.2 FDI inflows by sector 8.1.3 Deployment of credit by sector 8.2 Economic Performance 8.2.1 GDP at constant prices 8.2.2 GDP per capita at constant prices 8.2.3 GDP at current prices 8.2.4 GDP per capita at current prices 8.2.5 GDP split by key sectors 8.2.6 Agricultural output value at current prices (Ukrainian Hryvnia) 8.2.7 Agricultural output value at current prices (US Dollar) 8.2.8 Agricultural output at current prices as a percentage of GDP 8.2.9 Manufacturing net output at current prices (Ukraine Hryvnia) 8.2.10 Manufacturing net output at current prices (US Dollar) 8.2.11 Manufacturing net output at current prices as a percentage of GDP 8.2.12 Mining, manufacturing and utilities net output at current prices (Ukraine Hryvnia) 8.2.13 Mining, manufacturing and utilities net output at current prices (US Dollars) 8.2.14 Mining, manufacturing and utilities net output at current prices as a percentage of GDP 8.2.15 Construction net output at current prices (Ukraine Hryvnia) 8.2.16 Construction net output at current prices (US Dollar) 8.2.17 Construction net output at current prices as a percentage of GDP 8.2.18 Crude steel production 8.2.19 Crude oil consumption 8.2.20 Inflation rate 8.2.21 Fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP 8.2.22 Trade balance as a percentage of GDP 8.2.23 Exports as a percentage of GDP 8.2.24 Imports as a percentage of GDP 8.2.25 Exports growth 8.2.26 Imports growth 8.2.27 External debt as a percentage of GDP 8.2.28 Annual average exchange rate US$-UAH 8.2.29 End of the period exchange rate US$-UAH 8.3 Infrastructure Quality and Availability 8.3.1 Total airports and ports 8.3.2 Railways and highways 8.3.3 Passenger vehicle production volume 8.3.4 Commercial vehicle production volume 8.3.5 Automotive components export trend 8.3.6 Automotive products import trend 8.3.7 Passenger car penetration 8.3.8 Total installed capacity for electricity generation 8.3.9 Installed capacity for the generation of conventional thermal electricity 8.3.10 Electricity production 8.3.11 Installed capacity for the generation of hydro-electricity 8.3.12 Installed capacity for the generation of renewable electricity 8.3.13 Electricity consumption 8.3.14 Electricity exports 8.3.15 Electricity imports 8.3.16 Healthcare expenditure 8.3.17 Healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP 8.3.18 Healthcare expenditure per capita 8.3.19 Research and development expenditure as a percentage of GDP 8.3.20 Total internet subscriptions 8.3.21 Broadband internet subscriptions 8.3.22 Personal computer penetration 8.3.23 Mobile phone penetration rate 8.4 Labor Force 8.4.1 Labor Force 8.4.2 Unemployment rate 8.5 Demographics 8.5.1 Annual disposable income 8.5.2 Annual per capita disposable income 8.5.3 Annual consumer expenditure on food 8.5.4 Annual per capita consumer expenditure on food 8.5.5 Urban and rural population 8.5.6 Female percentage of population 8.5.7 Male percentage of population 8.5.8 Mean age of population 8.5.9 Median age of population 8.5.10 Population density 8.5.11 Age distribution - total population 8.5.12 Age distribution - male population 8.5.13 Age distribution - female population 8.5.14 Number of households 8.6 Political and Social Risk 8.6.1 Political stability 8.6.2 Terrorism index 8.6.3 Transparency index 9 Appendix 9.1 Contact Us 9.2 About ICD Research 9.3 Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure, 2007-2011 Table 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure, 2012-2016 Table 3: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure and GDP Growth Rate (%), 2007-2011 Table 4: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure and GDP Growth Rate (%), 2012-2016 Table 5: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure as a percentage of GDP (%), 2007-2011 Table 6: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure as a percentage of GDP (%), 2012-2016 Table 7: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure, 2007-2011 Table 8: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure, 2012-2016 Table 9: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation(%), 2007-2011 Table 10: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation(%),2012-2016 Table 11: Ukrainian Army Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2007-2011 Table 12: Ukrainian Army Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2012-2016 Table 13: Ukrainian Navy Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2007-2011 Table 14: Ukrainian Navy Defense Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2012-2016 Table 15: Ukrainian Air Force Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2007-2011 Table 16: Ukrainian Air Force Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2012-2016 Table 17: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2007-2011 Table 18: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2012-2016 Table 19: Ukrainian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2007-2011 Table 20: Ukrainian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016 Table 21: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2007-2011 vs 2012-2016 Table 22: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders - 2011 and 2016 Table 23: Top Country Ranking by Arms Exports, 2005-2010* Table 24: ICD Research Terrorism Index Table 25: Ukrainian Arms Exports (US$ Million), 2005-2010 (TIV Values) Table 26: Competitive Landscape of the Ukrainian Defense Industry Table 27: Antonov ASTC - product focus Table 28: Antonov ASTC - Alliances Table 29: Antonov ASTC- Recent Contract Wins Table 30: RPC Fort - product focus Table 31: RPC Fort - Alliances Table 32: RPC Fort - Recent Contract Wins Table 33: KMDB - product focus Table 34: KMDB - Recent Contract Wins Table 35: Malyshev Plant - product focus Table 36: Malyshev Plant - Recent Contract Wins Table 37: AvtoKrAZ Holding Company - product focus Table 38: AvtoKrAZ Holding Company - Recent Contract Wins Table 39: Motor Sich - product focus Table 40: Motor Sich - Alliances Table 41: Motor Sich - Recent Contract Wins Table 42: Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant - product focus Table 43: Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant - Alliances Table 44: Aviant State Enterprise Kyiv Aviation Plant - Recent Contract Wins
List of Figures
Figure 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure, 2007-2011 Figure 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure, 2012-2016 Figure 3: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure and GDP Growth Rate (%), 2007-2011 Figure 4: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure and GDP Growth Rate (%), 2012-2016 Figure 5: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure as a percentage of GDP (%), 2007-2011 Figure 6: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure as a percentage of GDP (%), 2012-2016 Figure 7: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure, 2007-2011 Figure 8: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure, 2012-2016 Figure 9: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation(%), 2007-2011 Figure 10: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation(%), 2012-2016 Figure 11: Ukrainian Army Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2007-2011 Figure 12: Ukrainian Army Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2012-2016 Figure 13: Ukrainian Navy Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2007-2011 Figure 14: Ukrainian Navy Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2012-2016 Figure 15: Ukrainian Air Force Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2007-2011 Figure 16: Ukrainian Air Force Defense Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2012-2016 Figure 17: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ million), 2007-2011 Figure 18: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation(US$ million), 2012-2016 Figure 19: Ukrainian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2007-2011 Figure 20: Ukrainian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2012-2016 Figure 21: ICD Research Terrorism Heat Map Figure 22: ICD Research Terrorism Heat Index, 2011 Figure 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2007-2011 vs 2012-2016 Figure 24: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders - 2011 and 2016 Figure 25: Defense Expenditure of Countries with the Largest Defense Expenditure (% of GDP), 2011 Figure 26: Ukrainian Arms Exports (US$ Million), 2005-2010 (TIV Values) Figure 27: Ukrainian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2005-2010 Figure 28: Ukrainian Defense Exports (%), 2005-2010 Figure 29: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis Figure 30: Motor Sich - Revenue Trend Analysis (UAH Million), 2005-2009 Figure 31: Motor Sich - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (UAH Million), 2005-2009 Figure 32: Motor Sich - Net Profit Trend Analysis (UAH Million), 2005-2009 Figure 33: The PFTS Stock Exchange in Ukraine - Market Capitalization (US$ Billion), 2003-2009 Figure 34: The Ukrainian Stock Exchange - Market Capitalization (US$ Billion), 2003-2009 Figure 35: Ukrainian FDI Inflows by Sector (US$ billion), 2004-2008 Figure 36: Ukrainian Deployment of Credit by Sector (US$ Billion), 2003-2009 Figure 37: Ukrainian GDP Value at Constant Prices (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 38: Ukrainian GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2003-2015 Figure 39: Ukrainian GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 40: Ukrainian GDP Per Capita at Current Prices (US$), 2003-2015 Figure 41: Ukrainian GDP Split by Key Sectors (%) 2003 Vs. 2009 Figure 42: Ukrainian Agriculture Net Output Value at Current Prices (UAH Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 43: Ukrainian Agriculture Net Output Value at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 44: Ukrainian Agriculture Output at Current Prices as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 45: Ukrainian Manufacturing Net Output at Current Prices (UAH Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 46: Ukrainian Manufacturing Net Output at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 47: Ukrainian Manufacturing Net Output at Current Prices as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 48: Ukrainian Mining, Manufacturing and Utilities Net Output at Current Prices (UAH Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 49: Ukrainian Mining, Manufacturing and Utilities Net Output at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 50: Ukrainian Mining, Manufacturing and Utilities Net Output, at Current Prices as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 51: Ukrainian Construction Net Output at Current Prices (UAH Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 52: Ukrainian Construction Net Output at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 53: Ukrainian Construction Output at Current Prices as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 54: Ukrainian Crude Steel Production (Million Metric Tons), 2003-2015 Figure 55: Ukrainian Crude Oil Consumption (Million Tons), 2003-2015 Figure 56: Ukrainian Inflation Rate (%), 2003-2015 Figure 57: Ukrainian Fiscal Balance as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 58: Ukrainian Trade Balance as a percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2009 Figure 59: Ukrainian Exports as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 60: Ukrainian Imports as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 61: Ukrainian Exports Growth (%), 2003-2015 Figure 62: Ukrainian Imports Growth (%), 2003-2015 Figure 63: Ukrainian External Debt as percentage of GDP (%) 2003-2009 Figure 64: Ukrainian Annual Average Exchange Rate US$-UAH (%), 2003-2009 Figure 65: Ukrainian End of the Period Exchange Rate US$-UAH (%), 2003-2009 Figure 66: Ukrainian Airports and Ports (Number), 2009 Figure 67: Ukrainian Railways and Highways (Kilometers), 2009 Figure 68: Ukrainian Passenger Vehicle Production (Units), 2003-2015 Figure 69: Ukrainian Commercial Vehicle Production (Units), 2003-2015 Figure 70: Ukrainian Automotive Components Exports (US$ Million), 2003-2015 Figure 71: Ukrainian Automotive Components Imports (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 72: Ukrainian Passenger Car Penetration (Per 1000 People), 2003-2015 Figure 73: Ukrainian Total Installed Capacity for Electricity Generation (Million Kilowatt), 2003-2015 Figure 74: Ukrainian Installed Capacity for the Generation of Conventional Thermal Electricity (Million Kilowatt), 2003-15 Figure 75: Ukrainian Electricity Production (Billion Kilowatt Hour), 2003-2015 Figure 76: Ukrainian Installed Capacity for the Generation of Hydro-Electricity(Million KW), 2003-2015 Figure 77: Ukrainian Installed Capacity for the Generation of Renewable Electricity (Million Kilowatt), 2003-2015 Figure 78: Ukrainian Electricity Consumption (Billion Kilowatt Hour), 2003-2015 Figure 79: Ukrainian Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hour), 2003-2015 Figure 80: Ukrainian Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt Hour), 2003-2015 Figure 81: Ukrainian Healthcare Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 82: Ukrainian Healthcare Expenditure as Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 83: Ukrainian Per Capita Healthcare Expenditure (US$), 2003-2015 Figure 84: Ukrainian Research and Development Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2003-2015 Figure 85: Ukrainian Internet Subscriptions (Millions), 2003-2015 Figure 86: Ukrainian Broadband Internet Subscriptions (Millions), 2003-2015 Figure 87: Ukrainian Personal Computer Usage (Per 100 People), 2003-2015 Figure 88: Ukrainian Mobile Phone Penetration (Per 100 People), 2003-2015 Figure 89: Ukrainian Size of Labor Force in the 15-59 Age Group (Million), 2003-2015 Figure 90: Ukrainian Unemployment Rate (%), 2003-2015 Figure 91 Ukrainian Annual Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 92: Ukrainian Annual Per Capita Disposable Income (US$), 2003-2015 Figure 93: Ukrainian Consumer Expenditure on Food (US$ Billion), 2003-2015 Figure 94: Ukrainian Annual Per Capita Consumer Expenditure on Food (US$), 2003-2015 Figure 95: Ukrainian Urban and Rural Population (%), 2003 - 2015 Figure 96: Ukrainian Female Percentage of Population (%), 2003-2015 Figure 97: Ukrainian Males Percentage of Population (%), 2003-2015 Figure 98: Ukrainian Mean Age of Population (Years), 2003-2015 Figure 99: Ukrainian Median Age of Population (Years), 2003-2015 Figure 100: Ukrainian Population Density (Per Square Kilometer), 2003 - 2015 Figure 101: Ukrainian Population Distribution by Age (%), 2003-2015 Figure 102 Ukrainian Male Population Distribution by Age (%), 2003-2015 Figure 103: Ukrainian Female Population Distribution by Age (%), 2003-2015 Figure 104: Ukrainian Number of Households (Million), 2003-2015 Figure 105: Global Terrorism Heat Map, 2009 Figure 106: Ukrainian Transparency Index, 2003-2009 |